NIFTY Futures Mechanical Trading

[monupareta]

After seeing Dow Jones it looks like on tuesday their are more than 100 % chance to hit stop loss again HURRAY, yes after loosing money in starting, I DOING REVERSE OF THIS SYSTEM AND EARNING FROM LAST 3 DAYS


I know my tactices will not work for long time , since this system will start working good as soon market will find direction , but till then I am Short selling this system till market is voltaile and nifty is rangebound

 

[rkkarnani]

NIFTY FUTURE For April 11,

Current position : LONG (at 4734 on 08/04/2008)

Nifty Fut Closed at : 4722.3

Profit/Loss in current trade : -11.70 (as per last closing price)
Net Profit/Loss since thread started : +1216.30 (1228.00-11.70)

Support : 4682
Resistance : 4753

Hold LONG positions with SL 4682. We will avoid trading if SL hits tomorrow.


Happy Trading.

Vinod

Please dont take it otherwise what I am writing :
You will not reverse the trade if SL is hit on Tuesday.
Why???
Your mechanical system says so or its the inclusion of own view that is changing the RULES of the system?????
Would like to have a line in reply.
Regards.
R K Karnani

 

[nitinku5021a]

Please dont take it otherwise what I am writing :
You will not reverse the trade if SL is hit on Tuesday.
Why???
Your mechanical system says so or its the inclusion of own view that is changing the RULES of the system?????
Would like to have a line in reply.
Regards.
R K Karnani

I guess Vinod has already talked about it...In rangebound n high volatile market this system doesn't work...so according to the rule , avoid trading.

PS** : I am into paper trade with this system.

Nitin

 

[nadodav]

Please dont take it otherwise what I am writing :
You will not reverse the trade if SL is hit on Tuesday.
Why???
Your mechanical system says so or its the inclusion of own view that is changing the RULES of the system?????
Would like to have a line in reply.
Regards.
R K Karnani

Hi,
As per system we should continue to trade. but as last 8 out of 9 trades (including current trade) are loss making trades, hence it is better not to trade for some time.

Vinod

 

[nadodav]

NIFTY FUTURE For April 15,

Current position : LONG (at 4734 on 08/04/2008)

Nifty Fut Closed at : 4771.85

Profit/Loss in current trade : +37.85 (as per last closing price)
Net Profit/Loss since thread started : +1265.85 (1228.00+37.85)

Support : 4729
Resistance : 4807

Hold LONG positions with SL 4729. We will avoid trading if SL hits tomorrow.


Happy Trading.

Vinod

 

[vvvv]

I guess Vinod has already talked about it...In rangebound n high volatile market this system doesn't work...so according to the rule , avoid trading.

PS** : I am into paper trade with this system.

Nitin

when do u know tht the market is volatile & rangebound..it takes sum time isnt it?? now we know nifty is volatile & rangebound..did we know tht it wud be like this 3 months back.definitely not...this means tht the system works well in a trending market..i think a simple indicator like macd will work in a trending market.
from the meet i recall tht it had been said tht the system had been built by taking the volatility factor into account..so it shud work very well in a volatile market. if its not then thts the drawback of the system..
also i think tht a volatile market is the best market to trade if u can catch the trend.
i wonder why this system has been kept so very secretive.i think every1 wud like to know tht wht factors have been kept in mind when designing such a system.we dont want the formula.

 

[rkkarnani]

Hi,
As per system we should continue to trade. but as last 8 out of 9 trades (including current trade) are loss making trades, hence it is better not to trade for some time.

Vinod

Can we say that the system is not TOTALLY MECHANICAL!!!!!! ???
Its not to criticise, but we are bringing the 'I' into play.

Now 'I' (becoz the last 8 trades have been loss making) decide NOT TO TRADE!!!! The system does not ask us to stop the trades.
Why now?? Why not after the fourth or maybe third or may be sixth trade of loss we decided NOT TO TRADE !!!!! Is it becoz now 'I' am not comfy with the moves.

Frankly Vinod , you need to work a little bit more on the parameters of the system to make it more workable system and tradeable too . I had in the initial days of your starting this Thread had pointed out the BIG SL in trades that made the system uncomfortable.

If we finely dissect the Trades we will notice that the Profits have been acheived from just a few VERY VERY VERY BIG MOVES !!!!!!!

So look forward to your further posts after you 'tweak' the system a bit to make it more accurate.
Regards.
-R K Karnani

 

[SGM]

Hello

Slide no 6, from Kolkata Meet. The entire PPT is also attached.

• Mr. Vinod has indicated in his posts that he takes into account the current Volatility to calculate the Support and Resistance levels.
  
  
• When the volatility is very high or the S&R Levels are too widely apart, in such cases only the signal for exit is taken and new entries are avoided.
  
  
• A valid breakout takes place only when Price crosses the S/R Level and stays beyond these levels for few minutes.

Usually after a series of loss making trades (Loosing Streak) a system would throw up a big winner, then again this is also called Gamblers Fallacy .

Anyway, Capital Preservation is the first priority for a trader.

If 8/9 losers indicates an unacceptable stats of system performance, re-evaluating if the system is broken or the markets have changed enf for the system to be modified or suspended would be a valid action.

As asishda said earilier, not recomending the use or otherwise of this system, Just sharing my views.

We need to thank Vinod for consistantly running a live system on a public forum for all of us to learn. It is given that there would be many members (maybe including Vinod) who have better performing systems and it is also understandable why they are not shared on a public platform.

Regards
Sanjay

 

[rkkarnani]

Hello

Slide no 6, from Kolkata Meet. The entire PPT is also attached.



Usually after a series of loss making trades (Loosing Streak) a system would throw up a big winner, then again this is also called Gamblers Fallacy .

Anyway, Capital Preservation is the first priority for a trader.

If 8/9 losers indicates an unacceptable stats of system performance, re-evaluating if the system is broken or the markets have changed enf for the system to be modified or suspended would be a valid action.

As asishda said earilier, not recomending the use or otherwise of this system, Just sharing my views.

We need to thank Vinod for consistantly running a live system on a public forum for all of us to learn. It is given that there would be many members (maybe including Vinod) who have better performing systems and it is also understandable why they are not shared on a public platform.

Regards
Sanjay

Dear Sir,
All credit to Vinod. Do not at all wish to take away anything (credit) from him or his thread. I had doubts abt. the system being mechanical so my earlier post.
Agreed that we have a rule to exit after a series of loss making trades, but its not predecided how many in a row would make us exit. Similarly when the S & R levels are far apart we only exit but how do we quantify the "far apart" part: 2% 3 % or point wise >100 points or so......
My request to Vinod is to Please look into this aspect and try to improve further the system he so gracefully had been sharing with us. Apart from the time taken to study the parameters of the system to post the levels, its also time required to POST the levels here for all of us to see which Vinod has very kindly devoted.
I also totally agree to your view about NOT SHARING successful systems on a Public Forum.
All the best to Vinod for improving the system if he also feels the same is required.
Regards
R K Karnani

 

[justnifty]

Hi Vinod,

I think, even in volatile markets, there may be some losing streaks with mechanical systems. The supports and resistances may get broken multiple times.

Having said this, your system overall performs as a winner. by not trading or double guessing the mechanical system with gap-up or gap-down openings, it would be adding more strain on the system.

IMHO, Either every trade should be "brain" analyzed
OR
every trade should be blindly system followed (IF and only IF there is trust in the system that has been proven with adequate back testing).
One can't oscillate between the two....

Just my point of view...