NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

The sensible scenario would be a quiet sideways move with 2609-2625 as immediate supports below and a mildly probing higher move to create comfort at 2645, as 2655-2661 is likely to test when things get that far.
QUOTE]
Great strength in the Nifty, Amit. And it's not going to follow any sensible path......
Wonder where now from here?
Jaspal

Yes Colonel, good strength in the Nifty once 2634 was taken yesterday.
As to the sensible bit, the market has its own way of doing things, especially a market feeding off liquidity from international players. Up when they come, down when they leave. That's the way. Somewhere tucked amidst that are the technicals which we try and make sense of.

It's not easy to go by charts on a truncated session where volumes are going to be low, though the last couple of similar occasions did see slight gains.
There is immediate support at 2652 and 2643, and lower at 2635.
2675-2679 are right above. 2688 is there in case of a sharp surge.

 

[AMITBE]

After two down days early last week and then bouncing strongly the next four, on the face of it the Nifty appears to gain further ground in this arm of the rally.
Somewhere along the line we would and should be looking for a correction same as last week, the benefits of which are so vivid. The virtue of correction in a proportionate manner cannot be emphasised enough if higher levels are to be achieved and sustained.
The players may have learnt this the hard way, and it gets difficult to suggest when and where profit taking would emerge. Possibly more frequently than has been the case in the recent past.
In the short run the trend appears to want to gain further, though the sharp move that came on Saturday's truncated session needs to be validated today. For me this is primary aspect for today.

Also at these levels one would be cautious of increased volatility at selling pressure, yet this is barely the beginning of the new F&O contracts and the price discovery would take some moves in either direction to set in. However, be cautious even though panic selling would hardly be the concern just yet.

If Saturday's move is to be validated, 2697 has to be taken and sustained as above this the Nifty would have turned another important corner and if so, should head for 2707 being the immediate target. If 2697 is not taken, it is likely to impart some temporary weakness with a pull back to 2661 and 2652.
This is valid for the next few sessions too.
The immediate supports are at 2679-2670-2652.

 

[AMITBE]

If Saturday's move is to be validated, 2697 has to be taken and sustained as above this the Nifty would have turned another important corner and if so, should head for 2707 being the immediate target. If 2697 is not taken, it is likely to impart some temporary weakness with a pull back to 2661 and 2652.
This is valid for the next few sessions too.
The immediate supports are at 2679-2670-2652.

With 2707 showing strength so far, and if this mark plays out strong for longer, 2714-2717 becomes a possibility.
But only if 2707 is sustained longer.
Supports at 2697-2688.

 

[AMITBE]

Nerves are going to be frayed today: Internationally the markets are under stress after the recent runups. The Rupee is again struggling against the Dollar. Then there is the dizzy height that the Nifty has achieved, five days on the trot.
But then the recent experience of last week has amply demonstrated the virtue of taking a breather to test strength in both directions.
No fears, for that reason.
Also there is fresh money come in recently, and being newly invested is not likely to abandon the game so quickly. The outlook then would seem something like selling pressure and buying support acting in concert.
Even so, shedding some weight seems more likely than not with no panic buttons being pulled.
But hey, who can really tell with this Index?

2717, as suggested in the last post yesterday blocked the progress, but 2707 was not given up, being protection for 2697, which, as also suggested yesterday, is an important mark where the Nifty will appear strong. This is not to say there is nothing below 2697, but a sustained play around certain marks has it's value.

2704 and 2698 are immediate supports. Then 2688 and in case of a sharp decline, 2679.
Above 2717, the progress is likely to be tested at 2727 and 2738.

 

[AMITBE]

2717, as suggested in the last post yesterday blocked the progress, but 2707 was not given up, being protection for 2697, which, as also suggested yesterday, is an important mark where the Nifty will appear strong. This is not to say there is nothing below 2697, but a sustained play around certain marks has it's value.

2704 and 2698 are immediate supports. Then 2688 and in case of a sharp decline, 2679.
Above 2717, the progress is likely to be tested at 2727 and 2738.

With 2679 off just tested, the Nifty should either clear 2688 and 2695 to keep its strength for today.
Below 2679 is 2667-2670 where it'll get distinctly weak.
So far this is for today.

 

[roneeth]

Hello Amit!

Thanks a lot for your constant updates on Nifty, I feel todays session is going flat somehow volumes are not coming in....

Regards

Roneeth

 

[AMITBE]

Hello Amit!

Thanks a lot for your constant updates on Nifty, I feel todays session is going flat somehow volumes are not coming in....
Regards
Roneeth

Roneeth, being in a cautious mode today, yes the volume does look depeleted mostly. It's a good sign of an orderly pullback.
As suggested this morning, selling pressure and buying support stand equals so far. Caution and strength are two vital aspects of a sustainable bull run.
Despite the levels mentioned this morning, we are in a safe zone by a wide margin yet.
Regards.

 

[AMITBE]

If Saturday's move is to be validated, 2697 has to be taken and sustained as above this the Nifty would have turned another important corner and if so, should head for 2707 being the immediate target. If 2697 is not taken, it is likely to impart some temporary weakness with a pull back to 2661 and 2652.
This is valid for the next few sessions too.

2717, as suggested in the last post yesterday blocked the progress, but 2707 was not given up, being protection for 2697, which, as also suggested yesterday, is an important mark where the Nifty will appear strong. This is not to say there is nothing below 2697, but a sustained play around certain marks has it's value.

The above are from the morning posts Monday and yesterday.
2697 is highlighted to point out how certain marks wil have an important role at certain time periods. 2714 is another mark, to go back a couple of posts above.
Yesterday the Nifty snapped at 2714 high and closed the day having climbed a notch above 2697 at 2698.
2679 was mentioned yesterday as the deep support for the Nifty and on touching it on the dip, reacted and rose sharply about 12-14 points
Numbers are important in all nature and each will exude energy when stimulated at certain times. Interestingly, at other times the energy lies dormant.
It'll probably take a lifetime or more to discover the magic, but it's an exciting pursuit!
It'll be interesting to see what energy 2697 has for today, a possible launching pad or stiff hurdle, down coming up. I'd chance the launching pad angle. These are explorations after all, or research if you like, and the numbers/energy cannot be ignored.

Along its breakneck climb in recent times, the Nifty is known to take an off day to rest and then come back strong.
It would come as no surprise if such a move comes today. The contrary scenario would be the routine.

2707-2714-2717 have been mentioned before and all are tried and tested. In an upmove, when 2717 is taken and sustained, the immediate target would be 2727-2736.
Down, 2688-2679 again. Further, 2670 should be fine.

 

[AMITBE]

2707-2714-2717 have been mentioned before and all are tried and tested. In an upmove, when 2717 is taken and sustained, the immediate target would be 2727-2736.
Down, 2688-2679 again. Further, 2670 should be fine.

That's a pretty savage sell out...quite confusing as to why...no indiacation came. Loss of 45 points in a blink.
And now the shift in the other direction.
Someone's having fun!
2670 is vulnerable still, till 2688 is sustained.
2661 is another strong support.

Glaxo, Bajaj, Wipro, Tata Motors, Hind Lever, ONGC, Bharti, Satyam amongst others are selling the hardest.
National Aluminium and BHEL are the only saving grace.

 

[AMITBE]

Yes we're going deeper if 2661 doesn't give a fight.
2652 is next support.