NIFTY FIFTY

[jaideep]

Hi Karthik...yes the compass is back!
The midcaps have been more hit than yesterday, it seems.
2557 broke earlier but 2546 caused the bounce back.
2563-2568 are the levels to cross for now.
Right you are, saint.

Yes! Amit, a compass indeed. I'll bet my last dollar that everyone here has one eye on your NIFTY50 compass all the time & all day long. Selfless service much appreciated I'd like to say again. Thanks & cheers.

 

[AMITBE]

Yes! Amit, a compass indeed. I'll bet my last dollar that everyone here has one eye on your NIFTY50 compass all the time & all day long. Selfless service much appreciated I'd like to say again. Thanks & cheers.

Thanks Jaideep, very much...I enjoy this too!
This is an important stage...2569-2572 have to be crossed.
Or else we may be forming like a double top of sorts.

 

[AMITBE]

Thanks Jaideep, very much...I enjoy this too!
This is an important stage...2569-2572 have to be crossed.
Or else we may be forming like a double top of sorts.

No...the double top did not happen...but reacted severely at 2578, a support very early today.
And now wanting to slip below 2569 again.
This is the problem for now...nerves.
Selling at every high.

 

[karthikmarar]

Hello Amit

Good morning..

Did you notice the Bearish divergence in RSI and nifty. TRIX also showing pronounced Divergence... Enclosing chart for quick reference.

regards

karthik

 

[AMITBE]

Hello Amit
Good morning..
Did you notice the Bearish divergence in RSI and nifty. TRIX also showing pronounced Divergence... Enclosing chart for quick reference.
regards. karthik

Morning Karthik...
Yes, been following this closely all along.
Not looking too good, is it...
Thanks for the chart.

For the new week, the trend in the last three sessions is certainly looking weak.
The only positive here is that the closing levels both Thursday and Friday kept close to the critical mark of 2586.
So far the indication from the preceding several sessions is that the Nifty cannot easily sustain above 2586-2600-2620-2635 and finally 2650. It's vital for these marks to be crossed with good volume for the long-term up-trend to resume. The rise to 2650 plus a few sessions ago, with hindsight, was a lot of adventurism. As there was no intermittent correction nor consolidation along the way to the higher levels, the present weakness was much expected.

For a healthy consolidation which would simultaniously not create a panic-sell, we need to remain well above 2530-2540, and closer to 2586.
A break at 2525 would most likely plunge us deeper. An entry into the 2400s cannot be ruled out then.
Of course the result season begins today, with some important numbers coming out over the next few sessions. It would be great if this triggers a move to above 2600, as this is a more desirable level to consolidate above.
There will be focused buying in specific counters taking the market up, with bouts of sharp selling in others.
A great deal of choppy weather lies ahead, so please maintain stop loss levels, and take fresh positions with utmost care.
Even when the market rises sharply, as it will every so often, the call is to remain cash for as long as it takes for a clear trend resumption.

The levels today...2552 is important to remain intact. 2547 and 2539 are important supports. 2520 is the panic button.
To the up, 2579-2584-2592-2598-2601 and 2612 are the immediate resistance levels.

 

[Saint]

Even when the market rises sharply, as it will every so often, the call is to remain cash for as long as it takes for a clear trend resumption.

That is the attitude for now..........the line above is great wisdom.Stay out of every rally that suckers people in before the market slam dunks down further........till clear trend resumption is seen.

Great stuff as always!

Saint

 

[AMITBE]

That is the attitude for now..........the line above is great wisdom.Stay out of every rally that suckers people in before the market slam dunks down further........till clear trend resumption is seen.

Great stuff as always!

Saint

Thanks saint...yes, that's the only sensible thing.

2572 can be sticky on the way up.
To the down this is supporting for now.
Below, 2568-2562-2555-2550 have been supports recently.

 

[AMITBE]

Consolidating well for quite a while around 2585. A move to either direction should come at some point now.
2588-2592 are sticky too, and consolidating above these would be even better.
However, the a/d in Nifty counters is pretty even at this point and a few on the borders could go either way.

 

[AMITBE]

A possible positive trigger, even if short lived, may come from the good results Infy has declared.
From yesterday's moves it is obvious that the market has been awaiting this, as not much was gained nor lost yesterday, except of course in the midcap space where selling took place. The likely cause of this could be caution ahead of the Infy results?
The market may rally early session, though there may be some aimless meandering at some point, as was yesterday. There are increased chances of chopiness too as Infy alone can only do that much and no more. Uncertainty may prevail for longer.
The call is again for great caution.

As 2560 was not broken yesterday, this has become an important mark today. There may be a reaction rally early to pass 2572-2579. The difficulty in sustaning above 2586 is quite clear by now. Even if we go beyond here, there is no guarentee it will sustain today.
The important levels are well known by now from these postings.
2552-2546-2540 are critical supports.
Will update.

 

[AMITBE]

We are playing with danger here.
2533 has survived for now, and then we have 2527, 2523, 2519, 2514 and 2502.
This for information...just in case.