NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

hello amitbe,

today was a stunning move up.with f&o expiry coming next week medium term players might have covered their shorts today.it crossed the 38.2% retracement level without any any effort.that would really boost the sentiments of many.but does the upward looking wedge formation on the chart have any concern?does that indicate retesting of some critical supports?

regards,
gvnarendra.

Hi gvnarendra...the way I see it is, in your 5 minute chart the major resistance high just above the 'rising wedge' is at 3100 area?
Much would depend on this area being taken out, and as I have written in the above post, a move above 3065, and to extend it to 3079, may well do the job.
If so, the target as mentioned in the above post is 3121, and perhaps 3135.

 

[gvnarendra]

thanks amitbe.yes 3100 region on nifty future is a critical resistance point where 50 day and 100 day ema coincides and also where there is a gap which has not yet been filled.as for the nifty these emas coincides arorond 3128.BTW from many days now it has been a game of filling up of gaps.

regards,
gvnarendra.

 

[AMITBE]

There's not going to be any significant moves either side on a one hour session with negligible volume.
However, the best we can hope is for a partial realisation of Friday's late day move.

For that to happen, holding above 3064 at close would be nice.
Above 3071 would be better.
Crossing 3088 would be a great move.

On the down, 3059-3056-3047 are important levels to hold at this time.
Things could get tricky below 3035-3031.
Holding above 3018-3015-3011 is crucial.

 

[AMITBE]

Yet another critical week coming up, and even if every week or day is critical, this week is especially critical.

So yes, the current (short term?) rally has to find resolution to give a clear picture for the way ahead.
While the outcome/direction of the current move influences all of us players deeply, what happens out there at Uncle Sams later this week is whats going to make the world go round in the near to mid term.
That is the single most crucial factor this week and nothing else.
So while we rejoice the smaller picture in our backyards, lets be very cautious.

For me, a positive news in whichever form it comes from the Fed, will decide if the Nifty charts are really and finally entering a range bound consolidating phase with the worst behind us and the bottom already found.

And if not, the current base will certainly take a pounding.
And if so, then we can just about wait and hope and see if India Inc will deliver beyond expectations in the coming results season. That would help.
If not, it would be severe times ahead.

So yes, an interesting week coming ahead where this rally needs to find resolution, the Fed holds the pulse, and then of course the usual histrionics of the contracts expiry.

In the extreme short perspective, the market is edging towards being over bought.
So some pruning down is hoped for, if this rally has to reach its potential and give direction.
The fear comes from the Mittal steel deal, and in all the brainless hysteria that is expected at open, what one doesnt want to see is a disturbance to the rhythm of the current move.

For the levels, 3084 begins a congestive line that goes as 3084-3088-3092-3096-3100-3105-3108-3113-3116-3121.

To the down, 3038-3035-3031-3027-3023 need to be held.

More later.

 

[AMITBE]

In the extreme short perspective, the market is edging towards being over bought.
So some pruning down is hoped for, if this rally has to reach its potential and give direction.
The fear comes from the Mittal steel deal, and in all the brainless hysteria that is expected at open, what one doesn’t want to see is a disturbance to the rhythm of the current move.

For the levels, 3084 begins a congestive line that goes as 3084-3088-3092-3096-3100-3105-3108-3113-3116-3121.

To the down, 3038-3035-3031-3027-3023 need to be held.

More later.

I'm very glad for the price action underway now.
The hype on the Mittal deal has not come to be, and that has so far given the Nifty the space to the down to bring back a balance to the ongoing rally.

3033-3036 are the marks below which a drop to 3012-3008 may come should there be a sharp tug.
On the lower side then, 2996-2980 would become very critical.

 

[shrinivas]

I'm very glad for the price action underway now.
The hype on the Mittal deal has not come to be, and that has so far given the Nifty the space to the down to bring back a balance to the ongoing rally.

3033-3036 are the marks below which a drop to 3012-3008 may come should there be a sharp tug.
On the lower side then, 2996-2980 would become very critical.

it takes millions of nails to make the bottom of a boat.......
a slip of one nail does all the damage........

let us hope we do not get nailed this time...

ganeshhity

 

[rahulg77]

it takes millions of nails to make the bottom of a boat.......
a slip of one nail does all the damage........

let us hope we do not get nailed this time...

ganeshhity

Beautifully put.

Rahul

 

[shrinivas]

it takes millions of nails to make the bottom of a boat.......
a slip of one nail does all the damage........

let us hope we do not get nailed this time...

ganeshhity

has the nail slipped of its place ?????

now under this circumstances definitely 29th news would be hard to sustain..
Thank god, this time I was out as all my stop losses got triggered..exited in a very nominal profits...let's wait and watch now...

Sorry amitda for tracing my views on your thread...

ganeshhity

 

[AMITBE]

If I were perverse I'd say I told you so...but nah!

Sure the lower levels were successfully tested at 2920 area, and the close...well that's another story. It's closed a good hundred points above where I had hoped...at 2932!
Makes you want to eat your words.....

The rally continues and yesterday this was written:

So now another tryst with an important levels has been made with the close above 3032.
Now 3065 stands in between here and 3121 and more.

In the above post 2889-2865 was the area mentioned below which this rally would be negated.
That area is now being raised to 2925-2937.

Above is from Friday last...
So yet again the 2925-2937 area got tested today, the point below which this rally would be considered under threat.
What may happen tomorrow is anyone's guess...whether these levels survive or not.

On the face of it, I'd still be long.

Well...to make sense of the move today, someone cashed out big time across the board.
So ok...our markets had run ahead of the rest, closer to home and further.
So this pruning down does serve a purpose:
The levels now are more in line with the rest I would guess, without looking closely at data from elsewhere.
Decent profits have been booked now, and cash is in hand again...to prepare for what emerges from the US later this week? Whether to take it and run or whether to take this rally forward?
That the crucial levels were not breached says something for a waiting game at trigger levels.

Yes, an important week is upon us.

 

[hrp]

hello hello