First of all no " ji " please. I am barely able to withstand dada 
which czar insists on calling me.
so drop that. just pankaj. By the way that is my real name and no alias.
Volatality is the way of the market But for that risk would not have existed.
I feel that on sensex our range will be around 9000 to 10500. At every rise we will see selling coming in. Further people who lost much will be aggresive in short term calls and at every dip they will purchase and at every rise they will sell till their capital is rebuilt again. Such volatality will deter common investors for quite some time having burned their fingures once. So there will be no new money coming in from retail investors. This will lengthen the recovery and will aid in the process of consolidation. I feel if it is over in three months and we are on track to 15000 (you have seen how euphoric sensex could be) we will be extremely lucky. This situation will become clear during earning seasons when first quarter results will support or deny concerns of inflation and slowing growth.
It is a known fact that money supply affects the consumption pattern and thereby earnings of the companies and slows growth and reduces income thus limiting further consumption inculcating saving habits and thus further slowing growth and so on...... in a spiralling pattern. It becomes a self-fulfilling promise. So kickstart the economy you need to infuse cheap money which inflates economy and slowly baloon becomes unsustainable and deflates again.This is what happened since 1985 till 1995.
However now factors are different. With largest ever foreign currency reserves we are also growing in a real term. It only needs to spread to masses.
If that assumption is correct then 9650 could be our bottom and we may not go down that average figure on a monthly basis. Once consequent volatality is over market will surely resume its upward tren and that should happen in after secon quarter earnings are in ( with monsoon factored in and economy generally picks up in festival seasonsa with lot of buying and happy days) We are afterall human beings.
Lastly the question of recovery does not come. Prices are at the level of Jan 2006 when ramping up was started. So it is a question of consolidation only. People are hurt as they didn't understand the market and went beyond their means to leverage it and got scalded.
Pankaj
which czar insists on calling me.so drop that. just pankaj. By the way that is my real name and no alias.
Volatality is the way of the market But for that risk would not have existed.
I feel that on sensex our range will be around 9000 to 10500. At every rise we will see selling coming in. Further people who lost much will be aggresive in short term calls and at every dip they will purchase and at every rise they will sell till their capital is rebuilt again. Such volatality will deter common investors for quite some time having burned their fingures once. So there will be no new money coming in from retail investors. This will lengthen the recovery and will aid in the process of consolidation. I feel if it is over in three months and we are on track to 15000 (you have seen how euphoric sensex could be) we will be extremely lucky. This situation will become clear during earning seasons when first quarter results will support or deny concerns of inflation and slowing growth.
It is a known fact that money supply affects the consumption pattern and thereby earnings of the companies and slows growth and reduces income thus limiting further consumption inculcating saving habits and thus further slowing growth and so on...... in a spiralling pattern. It becomes a self-fulfilling promise. So kickstart the economy you need to infuse cheap money which inflates economy and slowly baloon becomes unsustainable and deflates again.This is what happened since 1985 till 1995.
However now factors are different. With largest ever foreign currency reserves we are also growing in a real term. It only needs to spread to masses.
If that assumption is correct then 9650 could be our bottom and we may not go down that average figure on a monthly basis. Once consequent volatality is over market will surely resume its upward tren and that should happen in after secon quarter earnings are in ( with monsoon factored in and economy generally picks up in festival seasonsa with lot of buying and happy days) We are afterall human beings.
Lastly the question of recovery does not come. Prices are at the level of Jan 2006 when ramping up was started. So it is a question of consolidation only. People are hurt as they didn't understand the market and went beyond their means to leverage it and got scalded.
Pankaj
