NIFTY FIFTY
- Thread starter AMITBE
- Start date
- Status
Hi amitt29...what's important is that one consistently follows one single methodology which has given accurate results.
So if from your perspective you get 3050, there's nothing like it.
From my work 3073 came up as a point where the action turns.
However, the close at 3071 is not bad, especially if there was genuine buying in the late day rally, rather then all short covering.
And if there was buying, and considering European markets recovery, and if the US markets see a bounce, then we should see further up move tomorrow.
And further, if there is some, just a little buying support tomorrow, we could have a strong closing.
I agree with your June 8 date.
I have June 7 as a possible turn.
But one must remember this correction has hardly had any time to it yet.
We are feeling the pain because of the vicious nature of it. Else, in normal course, an over due correction like this should unfold over a longer period of time, and would be more gradual.
So, if our dates have to pan out, the best one can hope for is consolidation in time, rather than this terrorising uncertainty.
On the other hand, I had written this morning that we may get a relief rally to 3300-3350 levels to allow trapped big money to escape and to trap innocent victims again, and then there could be another slam-dunk.
These are all possibilities.
So if from your perspective you get 3050, there's nothing like it.
From my work 3073 came up as a point where the action turns.
However, the close at 3071 is not bad, especially if there was genuine buying in the late day rally, rather then all short covering.
And if there was buying, and considering European markets recovery, and if the US markets see a bounce, then we should see further up move tomorrow.
And further, if there is some, just a little buying support tomorrow, we could have a strong closing.
I agree with your June 8 date.
I have June 7 as a possible turn.
But one must remember this correction has hardly had any time to it yet.
We are feeling the pain because of the vicious nature of it. Else, in normal course, an over due correction like this should unfold over a longer period of time, and would be more gradual.
So, if our dates have to pan out, the best one can hope for is consolidation in time, rather than this terrorising uncertainty.
On the other hand, I had written this morning that we may get a relief rally to 3300-3350 levels to allow trapped big money to escape and to trap innocent victims again, and then there could be another slam-dunk.
These are all possibilities.
gvnarendra said:
hi amitbe,
that was a very nice rally from the lows and still continuing.may be short covering and some speculative buying might have happened around 200 day moving avg.some of my levels on my chart held too.Right now it is above the strong level 3000 which you had mentioned.It may be early but the whole pattern looks nearly like a double bottom to me.from elliott princile as i had said before, it has completed its 3 wave down move in fibbonacci ratio.so the previous low could be a potential bottom.If things improve on the global front, we might start going up from tomorrow or coming week.Please comment on this.
regards,
gvnarendra.
that was a very nice rally from the lows and still continuing.may be short covering and some speculative buying might have happened around 200 day moving avg.some of my levels on my chart held too.Right now it is above the strong level 3000 which you had mentioned.It may be early but the whole pattern looks nearly like a double bottom to me.from elliott princile as i had said before, it has completed its 3 wave down move in fibbonacci ratio.so the previous low could be a potential bottom.If things improve on the global front, we might start going up from tomorrow or coming week.Please comment on this.
regards,
gvnarendra.
I have not quite tracked the spot Nifty via a futures chart, and all my futures trades are done on spot levels.
If you are getting consistently accurate results with this method, then yes, there is hope of a relief rally at least.
If so, it will be interesting to see if an inverse H&S will pan out too. If so, the head is today's low at C (also a double bottom according to you) and the right shoulder low would coincide with the bottom of the second wave of a five wave rally coming on. (Around today's close perhaps)
Once again these are all possibilities.
Great going, and please keep updating.
Thank you amitji,its good for me that we agree on june 7-8(we can allow for slight deviation eh)But if I become half as good as you I wud consider myself successfull.
I do believe that the turn from 2972 and subsequent holding of the rally is a good sign.Whether this turns out to be start of impulse 5 only time will tell.
I do think we shud see more retail participation on breach of 3200-3300 levels which may happen on the dates u mentioned.Thats y we r getting the projected forecast.
I do believe that the turn from 2972 and subsequent holding of the rally is a good sign.Whether this turns out to be start of impulse 5 only time will tell.
I do think we shud see more retail participation on breach of 3200-3300 levels which may happen on the dates u mentioned.Thats y we r getting the projected forecast.
Hi Baron...I'm not finding it easy to descipher the needed gaps to conclude an island reversal. There have been gap openings in both directions in the last four sessions, and all the gaps have all but filled.
In any case at these bottom levels in the down trend now, an island reversal would only be considered bullish. Meaning from bearish to bullish.
Else, any gap downs would only mean continuation of the down trend and no reversal.
Yes, 20 DMA crossing below 50 DMA is seen and this is normally a sell signal that needs confirmation the next day.
However in our case with the Nifty or Sensex, they are both in severe over sold mode, and so it would not be prudent to take the 20 DMA crossing below 50 DMA as a sell signal. All this crossover is suggesting is the obvious weakness.
The other significance of such a crossover is to depict a break in trend.
We already know the trend lies broken
The reason this crossover from up to down is happening quite so soon is, when the indexes were at their highest till recently, there was a large gap between the 20 and 50 DMAs due to the sharp climb in the culminating days of the rise.
For instance in Sensex, on May 10 when the closing was at 12612, the 20 DMA was 11999, and the 50 DMA was 11357. The difference between the two DMAs is about 642.
Now on May 31 the difference between the two is negative: -6
The drop has been very sharp and in about two weeks, a fairly wide crossover has happened.
In any case at these bottom levels in the down trend now, an island reversal would only be considered bullish. Meaning from bearish to bullish.
Else, any gap downs would only mean continuation of the down trend and no reversal.
Yes, 20 DMA crossing below 50 DMA is seen and this is normally a sell signal that needs confirmation the next day.
However in our case with the Nifty or Sensex, they are both in severe over sold mode, and so it would not be prudent to take the 20 DMA crossing below 50 DMA as a sell signal. All this crossover is suggesting is the obvious weakness.
The other significance of such a crossover is to depict a break in trend.
We already know the trend lies broken
The reason this crossover from up to down is happening quite so soon is, when the indexes were at their highest till recently, there was a large gap between the 20 and 50 DMAs due to the sharp climb in the culminating days of the rise.
For instance in Sensex, on May 10 when the closing was at 12612, the 20 DMA was 11999, and the 50 DMA was 11357. The difference between the two DMAs is about 642.
Now on May 31 the difference between the two is negative: -6
The drop has been very sharp and in about two weeks, a fairly wide crossover has happened.
Smart money, big money, FIIs and assorted hedge funds, emerging market fundsthese are all the dog eat dog being discussed here.
To make an alteration, perhaps our own Mutual Funds should be termed as Underdogs.
Then dribbling down to us commoners, perhaps we are the hot-dogs meaning a form of snack, by extension meaning dog food.
Further our money is going to the dogs, as another expression goes, while ironically in these terribly depressed times, the Monsoons are here and its raining cats and dogs out there.
And to borrow from the title of my favourite Al Pacino movie (Al Pacino of the God Father fame, and please, thats not Dog Father!!) we have another Dog Day Afternoon coming upon us.
Ragdoll will be mollycoddled, to what extent one does not know, and then the game will turn vicious again.
Im not being flippant or light-headed here, but at times its also important to be like a cartoonist, or a caricaturist, in describing a setting with a grave sense of irony and sardonicism.
Humour need not provoke laughter each time.
And when it fails to do so, the seriousness of it is deathly.
Yes, the FIIs are playing a deathly game of hotting up the action in several markets around the world, and then abruptly pulling out on claims of over heating.
And the rest can go to the dogs, of course.
Buy in cash, sell in f&o, then say things that sends the chill down the markets.
They win no matter how the coin falls.
Pankaj is doing a great job of quantifying all this in real terms, and I encourage him to continue to do so.
Hopefully many more debates on this issue will start in many more circles, not just in India but elsewhere too.
Someone somewhere will have to show the leash to the wild dog party.
On to levels:
To the up the first line is 3078-3083-3088-3093. This may likely be gobbled in an opening gap, should it happen.
Then 3096-3099-3105-3111-3114-3117.
3121 is one of my major turning levels, and these levels are never easy.
On a related note, the Nifty will have to begin to bond with several of these and learn to stay above them, if stability is to return.
Supports are at 3065-3062-3059-3056 and 3050 is a crucial level.
Further below is 3044-3038-3032-3029. 3026 is critical to hold.
Then 3013 is another one of my major levels.
To make an alteration, perhaps our own Mutual Funds should be termed as Underdogs.
Then dribbling down to us commoners, perhaps we are the hot-dogs meaning a form of snack, by extension meaning dog food.
Further our money is going to the dogs, as another expression goes, while ironically in these terribly depressed times, the Monsoons are here and its raining cats and dogs out there.
And to borrow from the title of my favourite Al Pacino movie (Al Pacino of the God Father fame, and please, thats not Dog Father!!) we have another Dog Day Afternoon coming upon us.
Ragdoll will be mollycoddled, to what extent one does not know, and then the game will turn vicious again.
Im not being flippant or light-headed here, but at times its also important to be like a cartoonist, or a caricaturist, in describing a setting with a grave sense of irony and sardonicism.
Humour need not provoke laughter each time.
And when it fails to do so, the seriousness of it is deathly.
Yes, the FIIs are playing a deathly game of hotting up the action in several markets around the world, and then abruptly pulling out on claims of over heating.
And the rest can go to the dogs, of course.
Buy in cash, sell in f&o, then say things that sends the chill down the markets.
They win no matter how the coin falls.
Pankaj is doing a great job of quantifying all this in real terms, and I encourage him to continue to do so.
Hopefully many more debates on this issue will start in many more circles, not just in India but elsewhere too.
Someone somewhere will have to show the leash to the wild dog party.
On to levels:
To the up the first line is 3078-3083-3088-3093. This may likely be gobbled in an opening gap, should it happen.
Then 3096-3099-3105-3111-3114-3117.
3121 is one of my major turning levels, and these levels are never easy.
On a related note, the Nifty will have to begin to bond with several of these and learn to stay above them, if stability is to return.
Supports are at 3065-3062-3059-3056 and 3050 is a crucial level.
Further below is 3044-3038-3032-3029. 3026 is critical to hold.
Then 3013 is another one of my major levels.
- Status
| Thread starter | Similar threads | Forum | Replies | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M | Nifty option strategy chart in Dhan Optiontrader | Brokers & Trading Platforms | 3 | |
| S | EOD data for Nifty 50 with volume | Introductions | 0 | |
| L | Nifty fifty and stock futures | Swing Trading | 13 | |
| M | Veluri Strategy intraday nifty fifty | Software | 96 | |
| T | Nifty Fifty Only + GOLD SILVER | Data Feeds | 0 |
Similar threads
-
Nifty option strategy chart in Dhan Optiontrader
- Started by MetatraderUser
- Replies: 3
-
-
-
-