NIFTY FIFTY

[pkjha30]

Pankaj
I think u r erring in confusing size with strength. In stock markets (as u r well aware) it is profitability which matters (more than size), and that too EPS.

No one doubts that in the long term these are solid cos and will do well

AGILENT

Hi
Its not size . Its future plans. Prices are also based on host of other factors including expectations. If that fails it will go down.
But as you said these are solid companies. Nothing more to add.

?? ??

Pankaj

 

[AMITBE]

The Nifty has deeply been hurt and all the words of reassurance from the authorities will not help a lot in the near term.
Emerging markets everywhere are down again, as are the mature markets.

The hassles with margin calls are far from over and difficult times lie ahead.

Some bull pressure may emerge after the steep decline, as an attempt to squeeze out the weaker bears before Thursday, and that would help.
There is a killing to be made for those who have the monitory clout in the derivatives. When else would so many Nifty constituents be available at such discounts two days away from expiry.

That's all.

To the up 3134 was mentioned yesterday as a key retracement level to attain and hold. Then 3155 is important also. If these levels can be established as supports, one would be able to see the way ahead better.

There's no calling the down levels but for a line of support at this point one can look to 3074-3066-3058-3050-3042-3034-3026-3017-3008-3999-3990.
2956 is vital.

 

[AMITBE]

To the up 3134 was mentioned yesterday as a key retracement level to attain and hold. Then 3155 is important also. If these levels can be established as supports, one would be able to see the way ahead better.

There's no calling the down levels but for a line of support at this point one can look to 3074-3066-3058-3050-3042-3034-3026-3017-3008-3999-3990.
2956 is vital.

3077 is the level to remain above, else will get stuck in congestion.
Then 3082-3087-3092-3097.
Trading above 3107-3112-3117 will help the cause.

 

[AMITBE]

3077 is the level to remain above, else will get stuck in congestion.
Then 3082-3087-3092-3097.
Trading above 3107-3112-3117 will help the cause.

Dropping below 3077 first and then below 3046 has yet again put the Nifty in a bigger hole.

There are two congestion areas to deal with now.
One is between 3045 to 3077.
The line here is 3045-3049-3053-3057-3061-3065-3069-3073-3077.

The other congestion line is listed in the quote above.

So the work is cut out pretty much.

 

[ravi1967]

dear amitbhai
i have sold HLL may 290 put at 14.5, sold one HLL may 280 call @4.6 and bought may 270 put @4.6. what will happen if i allow these to expire. as per model caluclations using hoadley option software(free), i stand to lose 11500/- at expiry. but if i close these now, i may lose around 40000/- i dont know what to do.please advice.

 

[srinivasud]

dear amitbhai
i have sold HLL may 290 put at 14.5, sold one HLL may 280 call @4.6 and bought may 270 put @4.6. what will happen if i allow these to expire. as per model caluclations using hoadley option software(free), i stand to lose 11500/- at expiry. but if i close these now, i may lose around 40000/- i dont know what to do.please advice.

Your received net premium is Re14.5 per share. Assuming you sold & bought equal quantities.

1) If it closes at Re275.5 you will come out with 0 profit / loss net off Premium.
2) If HLL Closes at Re270 or whatever the price below it, you will loose Re5.5 per share as You sold Re290 PUT & Bought Re270 PUT on assignment net off premium.
3) If it closes above Re275.5 you will gain.

Srini

 

[ravi1967]

thank you srinibhai.

 

[ravi1967]

dear amitbai, is this a pullback rally?. mr.ramesh damani in moneycontrol chat today, says that only 50% of the correction has come and more is yet to come. an elliot wave chart published by chartalert.com says that it may dip up to 2860 before any major up move set in.
your nifty levels are really great
bye

 

[AMITBE]

dear amitbai, is this a pullback rally?. mr.ramesh damani in moneycontrol chat today, says that only 50% of the correction has come and more is yet to come. an elliot wave chart published by chartalert.com says that it may dip up to 2860 before any major up move set in.
your nifty levels are really great
bye

Hi Ravithat comment from the expert sounds stretched as we stand today.
It can go either way and we have to take it one day at a time.
The Nifty is in a critical state at this point, propped up thanks to life saving support systems.
It would remain in the Intensive Care ward for an uncertain period of time.
Any signs of improvement at this point should be seen only as a transient symptom.
And so then, cut all attachments to it at every rise. Till clarity emerges, this is the only way to go, so be very guarded, else stand aside.
Its a long way from recovery yet.
The dog eat dog has been very fierce like never before.

On the one day at a time basis the Nifty closed strong close to the days high.
Some warming up was quite visible yesterday.
It should certainly be seeking higher levels today, but expect extreme volatility at every sharp move in either direction, till the contracts expire and new price discovery takes place.

For the levels, the support line is 3197-3194-3191-3188-3185-3182-3179-3176-3173.
3169 is crucial.
Then 3165-3161-3157-3153-3149-3145-3141.
3136 is critical.

To the up the first line is 3207-3214-3221-3225.
Then 3229-3233-3237-3241-3245-3249-3253.

Will revise again.

 

[Saint]

Hi Ravi…that comment from the expert sounds stretched as we stand today.
It can go either way and we have to take it one day at a time.
The Nifty is in a critical state at this point, propped up thanks to life saving support systems.
It would remain in the Intensive Care ward for an uncertain period of time.
Any signs of improvement at this point should be seen only as a transient symptom.
And so then, cut all attachments to it at every rise. Till clarity emerges, this is the only way to go, so be very guarded, else stand aside.
It’s a long way from recovery yet.
The dog eat dog has been very fierce like never before.

Great wisdom above by Amit,friends...........we can go anywhere from here,everything looks more like a Short the Rally,rather than a Buy the Dips scenario.As correctly pointed out,"Cut all attachments to it at every rise.Till clarity emerges,this is the only way to go..."

If intermediate or short term longs are still held(they should have been cut by now),but if not,look to sell off when you get rallies.

If you are a trader that plays only on the long side,stand aside for now.Control that urge to get things at a price lower than your neighbour did.

None of the above applies to an investor though......

Take care,and all the best!
Saint