NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

Well, are we part of an open market integrating with he world markets, or is there an interventionist system at work.
Thanks to political imperatives, there was meddling with cement prices and then gas prices saw two steps back.
All these counters dragged the Nifty down on Thursday/Friday, starting this move.
Reliance copped out big time post the RPL listing, last couple of days.
Major tech counters have not been kicking in lately.
ONGC is usually played and manipulated.
ITC/HLL are seeing profit booking as are many others.

This is what's been going on mainly with the Nifty counters the last three sessions. Nothing untoward happened.
So if the market goes into a strong bout of profit booking, there is no call to panic.
Those who adhered to stops, would have lots of cash in hand to run about in glee once at least a relief rally comes in.
For the rest, hang in. There is nothing really gone rotton on the fundamental picture suddenly. Strong counters would attract strong buying by and by, in whatever 'cap'.

Today the metals/commodities copped out across the world and markets took a strong beating.
We got beat the hardest, but hey, we've been winning the hardest too.
Our markets just couldn't handle the pressure that came from everywhere today. We are part of a bigger system, even if we have carved out our own unique character.

Don't go long, but don't take new shorts either.
Be safe.

 

[SGM]

Hello Amitda,

Nifty Closed at 3502.95, the last trade on nifty futures shows to be 3446. What is the significance of such a heavy discount of 50+ points according to your studies.

Regards
Sanjay

 

[AMITBE]

Hello Amitda,

Nifty Closed at 3502.95, the last trade on nifty futures shows to be 3446. What is the significance of such a heavy discount of 50+ points according to your studies.

Regards
Sanjay

Hi Sanjay...nothing more than the obvious from my studies...that the sentiment is very bearish.

To look at some Futures levels, should the bulls get a go at Futures, let's first look for 3466-3469-3472-3475-3478-3484-3488.
Then 3492-3496-3500-3504.
3516 and 3521 could be strong triggers.

To the bearish side, 3456-3449-3442-3435-3428-3421-3414-3410-3406.
Let's observe how these pan out and do track these levels and update please.
Remember, these are not spot levels that I post each morning and through the day.

Some important long range levels to the up are 3468-3487-3506-3525-3544-3563-3582-3601-3620.
Lower below are 3459-3450-3441-3432-3423-3414-3405-3396.

Today could be an important session.

Regards.

 

[AMITBE]

If yesterday there was not a single positive prompt from anywhere, there may be reason to believe that the violent thrusting damage of the knee-jerk yesterday would get a respite today.
For one, the calm that prevails following the wild and distraught hysterics of the day gives the market movers time to reflect and reassess strategy. So, unlike yesterday morning, the fingers curled around panic triggers would be more considerate: Is there really a real reason for the mayhem that prevailed yesterday. That thought should lead to several reassuring thoughts.
In this bull run we have seen most market theories getting trashed. Those watching the markets world wide would know exactly what Im saying here. Yes, the bull run must have more than a little substance to it.
If so, then what was written here yesterday morning is valid more than ever, at least for me:

The market is a self adjusting entity like no other entity anywhere.
It adjusts with great intelligence and speed.
This is true despite all the knee-jerk activity that goes on.
Along the line it will make adjustments to eco/political shifts at the national level, hardening interest rates, and crude prices internationally, meddling with cement or sugar prices closer to home etc etc.

Strange political bedmates learning to live with each others bad breath, metals meltdown, threats of war, soaring crude prices, hardening interest rates, dropping dollar to dipping rupee, all these are daily occurrences in the life of the markets.
This is a new growth phase of India Inc. One must not forget this. Yes, global factors are important, but regardless, our market has been writing its own history.
As they say, until the lions have their historians, tales of hunting will always glorify the hunter.
Let us be clear that our market is making history.
And for now, in this crisis where the sentiment is badly hurt, lets take it one day at a time.

On to levels:

Supports are 3500-3497-3493-3491-3488-3485-3476.
Then 3471-3464-3459-3450-3443-3436-3429-3427. 3409 is another number.

To the up lets see how this line pans out to begin with: 3507-3513-3519-3525-3531-3535.

 

[vizzie]

If yesterday there was not a single positive prompt from anywhere, there may be reason to believe that the violent thrusting damage of the knee-jerk yesterday would get a respite today.
For one, the calm that prevails following the wild and distraught hysterics of the day gives the market movers time to reflect and reassess strategy. So, unlike yesterday morning, the fingers curled around panic triggers would be more considerate: Is there really a real reason for the mayhem that prevailed yesterday. That thought should lead to several reassuring thoughts.
In this bull run we have seen most market theories getting trashed. Those watching the markets world wide would know exactly what Im saying here. Yes, the bull run must have more than a little substance to it.
If so, then what was written here yesterday morning is valid more than ever, at least for me:


Strange political bedmates learning to live with each others bad breath, metals meltdown, threats of war, soaring crude prices, hardening interest rates, dropping dollar to dipping rupee, all these are daily occurrences in the life of the markets.
This is a new growth phase of India Inc. One must not forget this. Yes, global factors are important, but regardless, our market has been writing its own history.
As they say, until the lions have their historians, tales of hunting will always glorify the hunter.
Let us be clear that our market is making history.
And for now, in this crisis where the sentiment is badly hurt, lets take it one day at a time.

On to levels:

Supports are 3500-3497-3493-3491-3488-3485-3476.
Then 3471-3464-3459-3450-3443-3436-3429-3427. 3409 is another number.

To the up lets see how this line pans out to begin with: 3507-3513-3519-3525-3531-3535.

A sorry state isn't it..
We may have to look for supports further down..

vizzie

 

[AMITBE]

A sorry state isn't it..
We may have to look for supports further down..

vizzie

This fall's quite over done for me vizzie.
If base metals are crashing, why are construction, reaity, hospitality, telecom, technology, banking, motors, bikes etc etc etc...why are all these falling.

Someone has to step forward and start buying, and there will be buying I belive.
Shorts will cover hard and there would be a relief rally.

At this point I'm not looking for supports, but levels to scale to the up, because supports don't matter. Each new breaking support is going to cause another fall.

So to the up, 3430-3435 has to be maintained.
Then 3438-3442-3443.
Then 3450-3454-3458-3462.
Above 3467 would be a nice recovery.
Then more later.

 

[feels_good_today]

This fall's quite over done for me vizzie.
If base metals are crashing, why are construction, reaity, hospitality, telecom, technology, banking, motors, bikes etc etc etc...why are all these falling.

Rightly said amitji, like in US markets yesterday fall in metal prices led to rise in some stocks. May be our markets need a lot of maturity still.

 

[vizzie]

Rightly said amitji, like in US markets yesterday fall in metal prices led to rise in some stocks. May be our markets need a lot of maturity still.

Hi Amidta !!

Phew.. what a session...
hope no one here has done panic selling.
cause the way it has turned up.. seems like the gud old correction might be over..

cheers
vizzie

 

[AMITBE]

Hi Sanjay...nothing more than the obvious from my studies...that the sentiment is very bearish.

To look at some Futures levels, should the bulls get a go at Futures, let's first look for 3466-3469-3472-3475-3478-3484-3488.
Then 3492-3496-3500-3504.
3516 and 3521 could be strong triggers.

To the bearish side, 3456-3449-3442-3435-3428-3421-3414-3410-3406.
Let's observe how these pan out and do track these levels and update please.
Remember, these are not spot levels that I post each morning and through the day.

Some important long range levels to the up are 3468-3487-3506-3525-3544-3563-3582-3601-3620.
Lower below are 3459-3450-3441-3432-3423-3414-3405-3396.

Today could be an important session.

Regards.

Hi Sanjay, the above were all well covered today.
To the bearish side I hadn't calculated for anything below 3406 and of course Fut. went much below.
Same with the upper line, but once 3500 was teken, there was not one hiccup.
Of the long range levels mentioned, 3544 was all but tested at 3542.80 high.

I've been trading off a combination of the levels I compute, and trendlines quite a lot, and for today the traded trendlines are shown on the chart.

This is the first time I've posted Futures data here, and did so since you'd queried it.
As this thread is not for trading calls on the Nifty, this is the last of this.

Hope that helped, Sanjay.

 

[nkpanjiyar]

...
Someone has to step forward and start buying, and there will be buying I belive. Shorts will cover hard and there would be a relief rally.
...

Nicely said Amit. Some relief at the closing hours.

cheers,
nkpanjiyar