Mother of All trading threads!- Stocks, Indices, Commodities and Currencies!

[scplindia]

AW10, Nimish, Raunak, Rajputz,

I agree my views are very short term. As a med & Long term I am also bearish, and have been for the last one month, I could not believe that we are continuously going up, when global indices are correcting.

In the short term, India is bullish
1. Because Corporate earnings are very good.
2. Advance Tax figures are very good.
3. Excellent IIP data, one of the highest in the world.
4. Excellent GDP data.
5. Oil pricing reforms
6. FDI investment reforms.
7. PSU disinvestments

these being so good the negative that the market is so far ignoring, do not know how long.

1. Double digit inflation, to go up further more due to fuel price hike. infact, we are one of the countries with the highest inflation figures.
2. Already one of the highest bank interest rates in the world, which is likely to hiked soon to cap inflation.
3. Global Economic crisis, and global market bearish.

Even today, our markets held the support level of 5250 very well, there was excellent buying coming at that level. Today had we considered the global cues we should have gone below 5200 and taken support at 5180.

For reason mentioned by AW10, the fund managers are operating some stocks and holding the nifty well. The stocks normally used are ITC, RIL, INfosys, DLF, hindustan Uniliver, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, SBI & the large PSU like Ongc, BHEL etc Yesterday was infosys, ITC, Neyveli, today was RIL, Lever. etc

Tomorrow, donot know how they are going to hold 5200, or pull the indices back to 5300.

Cheers,
Prem Kumar

 

[scplindia]

Nimish,

Just a quick question to you as you are in uk. Today Euro vrs Dollar bounced up to the level of 1.24XX from 1.21XX. and EU indices are close 1 to 2 percent down, can you please explain, because the last one month, both were going in the same direction, today opp direction.

And why is CAC fallling the most. What is wrong with French Market.

Cheers,
Prem Kumar

 

[AW10]

AW10, Nimish, Raunak, Rajputz,

I agree my views are very short term. As a med & Long term I am also bearish, and have been for the last one month, I could not believe that we are continuously going up, when global indices are correcting.

In the short term, India is bullish
1. Because Corporate earnings are very good.
2. Advance Tax figures are very good.
3. Excellent IIP data, one of the highest in the world.
4. Excellent GDP data.
5. Oil pricing reforms
6. FDI investment reforms.
7. PSU disinvestments

these being so good the negative that the market is so far ignoring, do not know how long.

1. Double digit inflation, to go up further more due to fuel price hike. infact, we are one of the countries with the highest inflation figures.
2. Already one of the highest bank interest rates in the world, which is likely to hiked soon to cap inflation.
3. Global Economic crisis, and global market bearish.

Even today, our markets held the support level of 5250 very well, there was excellent buying coming at that level. Today had we considered the global cues we should have gone below 5200 and taken support at 5180.

For reason mentioned by AW10, the fund managers are operating some stocks and holding the nifty well. The stocks normally used are ITC, RIL, INfosys, DLF, hindustan Uniliver, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, SBI & the large PSU like Ongc, BHEL etc Yesterday was infosys, ITC, Neyveli, today was RIL, Lever. etc

Tomorrow, donot know how they are going to hold 5200, or pull the indices back to 5300.

Cheers,
Prem Kumar

Prem, Expressing my view on the factors that u have highlighted.

Out of those 7+3 factors, atleast more then 7 factors were true from over 6 months or so.. (maybe longer). And many of them refer to past.

But market discounts Future. If we had been on highs, but chances of further HIGHs is reduced then market will adjust to lower levels. Hence I discount them and try to look at leading indicators.. or convergence/divergence among various data. Maybe of the negative factor is over valuation of our mkt.. 22+ PE indicates that prices are discounted for roughly 22% growth in the business performance of Index stock and hence economy.

Are we really at that level to see this kind of growth?

That's why I am not bullish even in short term cause I am not convinced with any upmove hence might take small risk with bulls but stay with what I am more convinced about.

Just some more thoughts from me.
Trade what you see
Happy Trading

 

[scplindia]

Wow whats going on DOW below 9700, and dow fut trading close to 9600 what is going on sudden fall and big discount

 

[AW10]

Monday is holiday in US.. so probably it is shuffling before long weekend.. and no-one wants to wait for Friday which is anyway more or less like half day. And specially before long weekend, who would really be interested in work on friday.
I guess..

From my theory of corporate work habits..
Happy Trading

 

[nimish_rulz]

Wow whats going on DOW below 9700, and dow fut trading close to 9600 what is going on sudden fall and big discount

The house number were pathetic all the data was below expectation plunge of 30% in house sales. CAC comprises of big french banks and when market falls they get hit the hardest hence the massive fall. Similar is the case with UKs FTSE the majority is oil, miners, banks hence it is very sensitive to any news to economic growth etc. Euro rose today because Spanish bond auction was successful I had to raise my stop loss because I wanted the European markets to close now the real test for Euro starts. I moved my stop to 50DMA slightly above it as it is close to it. This is where dow retraced from recently. Will hold on to my shorts for couple of days.

News this morning from Europe was positive hence spain from 4% down turned 1% positive but with US open everything has been back in deep red.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Well Nifty now showing signs of tiredness some banks cracked today e.g Vijaya Bank. 5% fall.

Well I just wanted to tell you that right now world's cheapest market with good growth story is Russia with a P/E of less than 8 it is surely where I would put my money compared to P/E of 22.5 India, P/E of 18 China and P/E 13 Brazil.

Can you guys see how expensive India is also remember that Brazil grew faster than India in last quarter India @8.5% and Brazil @ 9%. Also for people who think India has the highest IR in the world please see that Brazil and Turkey have far higher Interest Rates.

Listing P/Es of markets around the world.
Dow Jones 13.6
S&P 15
Nasdaq 26.5
Canada 18
Mexico Bolsa 15.3
Brazil Bovespa 13.125
Columbia 25.3
Bloomberg Europe 10.74
Stoxx(Best EU companies) 12.12
FTSE 100 13.19
CAC 40 12.73
DAX Germany 14.556
Spain IBEX 9.88
MIB Italy 12.86
Holland AEX 16.06
OMX Sweden 18.51
Swiss SMI 14.2
Iseq Ireland -21
Denmark OMX 27.684
ASE Greece 10.105
Israel 15.19
MICEX Russia 7.92
RTS Russia 8.2
TOP 40 South Africa 19.298
Nikkei Japan n/a
Hong Kong Hangsang 14.39
China CSI 300 16.9
TWSE Taiwan -1.066
Nifty India 22.5
KOSPI Korea n/a
ASX Australia n/a
NZX New Zealand 9.83
Singapore 13.26
Malaysia 16.83


*n/a Not available.

 

[crown]

Prem, Expressing my view on the factors that u have highlighted.

Out of those 7+3 factors, atleast more then 7 factors were true from over 6 months or so.. (maybe longer). And many of them refer to past.

But market discounts Future. If we had been on highs, but chances of further HIGHs is reduced then market will adjust to lower levels. Hence I discount them and try to look at leading indicators.. or convergence/divergence among various data. Maybe of the negative factor is over valuation of our mkt.. 22+ PE indicates that prices are discounted for roughly 22% growth in the business performance of Index stock and hence economy.

Are we really at that level to see this kind of growth?

That's why I am not bullish even in short term cause I am not convinced with any upmove hence might take small risk with bulls but stay with what I am more convinced about.

Just some more thoughts from me.
Trade what you see
Happy Trading

regarding bolded matter

Thanks a ton bhai
this will help a lot to me, coz I was really and totally ignorend about this

 

[nimish_rulz]

I am not getting a good feeling about being a bear about the upcoming job numbers the expectation is so low that it might easily beat the estimates. Estimate is -106k from 500k Last time around. If this beats estimates expect a rally back to 10,000 in a quick time due to short covering and a long weekend in US.

Exited all my shorts today Nifty, positional stocks, currencies etc. Will wait for this number and then re-enter. Placed a buy stop and sell stop 55 points below and above the current levels to automatically enter the directional trade according to the job numbers. Trade is on the dow.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Breaking news Central Bank Raises IR

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- India’s central bank raised interest
rates for the third time this year in an unscheduled
announcement as inflation pressures from faster growth outweigh
risks from Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis.
The Reserve Bank of India increased the reverse repurchase
rate to 4 percent from 3.75 percent and the repurchase rate to
5.5 percent from 5.25 percent, according to a statement from th
central bank in Mumbai.