Mother of All trading threads!- Stocks, Indices, Commodities and Currencies!

[nimish_rulz]

Trading ideas for next few days. This is based on recent pattern and must be followed at own risk with tight stops. Here is the idea:

For the past 4 earnings seasons the stock whose result is to be announced in a weeks time is seriously bought into only to be dumped after the earnings. This just doesn't happen in India but everywhere around the world. And hence post results we have a correction on the index as well. If this time the scenario looks similar a profitable setup can be established based on investor behaviour.

Observe what happens after the first few results are announced is it being bought into or sold post the results. If it is being sold most likely it will be the same for all the stocks barring the ones that surprise too much on the upside. So last time the results for june ending quarter came in July and end of july we had a correction. Then in october around 21st we had another correction post sept quarter result announcement. Similarly on 22nd Jan we had a correction. Then 24th April. Well you know where I am going with this. But post result if the price is moving up u shud buy it only to dump the stock a day before the result.

This is a very risky strategy and must be executed with caution and proper risk management tools. Any opinions on this or views would be welcomed.

Infy would have yielded great profits with this strategy. Looking forward to the other stocks now

 

[scplindia]

Nimish,

I was bullish when dow hit 9600 levels, and did post on your thread, see what happened. Now the charts have confirmed what I posted.

Today we did a 52 week high on closing basis. This is after we have had a break out above the tripple top, with reasonable volume. This is now a very highly bullish pattern on the daily, weekly charts of nifty.

Nifty even ignored the poor IIP nos. This justifies the bullish sentiments.

Let us sit on the rally and enjoy the ride, rather than being bearish for the time being.

Cheers,
Prem Kumar

 

[nimish_rulz]

Nimish,

I was bullish when dow hit 9600 levels, and did post on your thread, see what happened. Now the charts have confirmed what I posted.

Today we did a 52 week high on closing basis. This is after we have had a break out above the tripple top, with reasonable volume. This is now a very highly bullish pattern on the daily, weekly charts of nifty.

Nifty even ignored the poor IIP nos. This justifies the bullish sentiments.

Let us sit on the rally and enjoy the ride, rather than being bearish for the time being.

Cheers,
Prem Kumar

Well I am bear on the nifty not on the global markets. Check my previous thread I said Nifty is more expensive compared to other markets. Check my dow level for mid july I said 10750 due to the earnings season.
I am long Russia Btw and a few other indicies such as Australia. And like Infy wait for the other results market will go up when the companies are about to announce the result and fall when the results have taken place.

I think right now markets are too risky to trade in any one direction hence I have a long short strategy.

Also I think the global rally is about to end soon. Maybe today or tomorrow but not that much time left. I think today looks most likely as US futures is up 100 points last time when China announced Yuan peg similar thing happened and market tumbled and closed the gap. Lets see though. Good Results can keep taking it higher. I am waiting for opening the shorts because risk reward is not favourable. Also taking long trades on stocks and indices which show value

 

[scplindia]

Nimish,

If you are bullish on Global market, India, where the bullish sentiments are now flying high, will not go bearish, until and otherwise, something seriously goes wrong within India. India has seen, much higher valuations, so it now really does not matter.

Your fundamental view is very acceptable, but technicals are not giving support to your fundamental view in the short term.

I am not talking long term at all.

Cheers,
Prem Kumar

 

[simple_trader]

Nimish,

If you are bullish on Global market, India, where the bullish sentiments are now flying high, will not go bearish, until and otherwise, something seriously goes wrong within India. India has seen, much higher valuations, so it now really does not matter.

Your fundamental view is very acceptable, but technicals are not giving support to your fundamental view in the short term.

I am not talking long term at all.

Cheers,
Prem Kumar

Dear Prem,

In market, sentiments can change over night. I guess one week back, there were many posts on Dow about death cross over in trader ji

But see what Dow has done after that. When all are euphoric better to be in cautious side. Some upmove may be left. But is it better not to participate in the last stage of rally.

Dow was over sold and making rally. Dow daily chart soon will go to resistance!!

 

[nimish_rulz]

Infy would have yielded great profits with this strategy. Looking forward to the other stocks now

Alcoa worked well with this strategy. Post results opens at 11.32 and falls to 11.00 at close. One more day and a break below $11 go short like there is no tomorrow stop at 11.19.

Lets see what happens with Intel.

To support my view, the Bank Of America comes with yet another downgrade for Alcoa.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Alcoa worked well with this strategy. Post results opens at 11.32 and falls to 11.00 at close. One more day and a break below $11 go short like there is no tomorrow stop at 11.19.

Lets see what happens with Intel.

To support my view, the Bank Of America comes with yet another downgrade for Alcoa.

Based on the discussed strategy I have taken this trade:

I shorted HDFC Bank futures @ 3135, not expecting a good results also unwinding of longs in the futures market. Decreased OI. 3150 stop loss for this.

Please this is a very risky trade against the bullish trend. I might exit without changing stop loss here so please be careful. Many thanks.

 

[rajeabc]

Based on the discussed strategy I have taken this trade:

I shorted HDFC Bank futures @ 3135, not expecting a good results also unwinding of longs in the futures market. Decreased OI. 3150 stop loss for this.

Please this is a very risky trade against the bullish trend. I might exit without changing stop loss here so please be careful. Many thanks.

down to 3052.... 75 points...

ANY TARGET ? or should keep open for tomorrow ?

 

[nimish_rulz]

down to 3052.... 75 points...

ANY TARGET ? or should keep open for tomorrow ?

2 things here we can do. One is use this money received to buy the put or trail the stop to 3125. I am expecting a test to 2800 levels atleast. You can also book some profits if you feel like. I am doing the first buying the 3000 put @35. Shorting 2850 @ RS10 put this way I am hedged. So maximum loss would be 35 but profit potential is high.

 

[nimish_rulz]

US retail sales fall by 0.5% in June expectation was around 0.2% fall. Economic data keeps getting worse around the globe.