Learn How To Fish

Status
Not open for further replies.

VJAY

Well-Known Member
any orders placed ??? BUY ?
As per rule trade was there ...But I have some other rules in some scenerios ..so avoided ...This things comes to decide avoid some trades when you trading this method and clearly staring filter some market scenerios...
 

VJAY

Well-Known Member
Good technic on unfavourable trading days ...by ncube bro

Guy's, Best way to handle unfavourable period in trading is to try and keep the win value as close to historical average as possible till we cross the tide.

This is how we can do it:
1. Track the historical Trade Average (All Trades that you have measured). (Hist_Avg)
2. Track the last 10 Trade average. (10T_Avg)
3. Track the historical Profit Average (Hist_Profit_Avg)
4. Track the historical Loss Average (Hist_Loss_Avg)

How to identify if we are in difficult period:
If 10T_Avg less than 50% of Hist_Avg then you are in difficult period

How to trade in difficult period:
Once in the trade do not wait for the price to reach demand-supply region for taking profits as there would be no follow through.
Once the trade goes above your Hist_Profit_Avg start trailing your Stops closely i.e below 3/5 min candles.
If the trade is not working out and the loss is at half the Hist_Loss_Avg, start trailing your stop loss closely.

This will ensure that your Hist_Avg is not going down, and once the last 10T_Avg is above 90% of Hist_Avg then the market is in favourable phase, go back to normal trading.
TSL is not good in volatile market, hence I suggested to first wait for the price to go above the Historical Win Average and then start trailing from a lower time frame. Eg: A strategy has an Average profit value of 20points and average loss of 10points, then in volatile period as soon as the profit goes above 20, start trailing it closely. Also if price not moving in the expected direction and below our buy price, then cut the TSL in half to 5 points and start trailing closly. In volatile markets our win-loss ratio will be low, hence we need to reduce our risk and try to protect profits proactively.

Also I would not recommend Target based trading unless one is scalping or HFT. For example if we work on say 1:2 RR ratio, then there is higher probablity of negative expectancy in a volatile environment. Over n number of trades the average profit value for a 1:2R strategy with 50% win probablity will be less than 1R, and during volatile periods the win probability will be much smaller. Hence over time the more we trade it higher chance that our account will go into negative.

Hence the best way I have observed is to keep the profit target open by using our historical profit avaerage to decide on the optimum Stop loss trailing point but to keep a fixed loss target which is lower than our historical loss average.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads