Wow, that was a day yesterday!
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Gap Filling:
In 30-min chart, there was a gap up opening between 5648 and 5685 in the first week of November. I was waiting for the gap to get filled before I could give any view on nifty. But nifty made a low of 5665.75. So I assume today or on Thursday it could make a low of 5650 before deciding the next trend, down or up (Global factors to support)!
Finally, the gap got filled. But then a small gap got created between 13th and 16th November (5661 and 5650).
30-min chart has moved below 30, indicating a short term uptrend before continuing the bear trend. So we can target 5661 for the short term before any meaningful downtrend.
But lets look at the other factors below too.
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315 Trend Change
In Daily, at the moment, it is at the threshold of 315 strategy. 3ema is near 15 ema and on verge of a crossover below 15 ema indicating bearish trend. If this happens, the first target is 5600, which is the previous low in daily, and indicates a short term double bottom. Looking at RSI, it seems that this support will hold.
Bearish trend confirmed by 315. However, nifty left 3ema yesterday, which means the price has to touch 3ema within 3 days, 3ema stands at 5656.
In 315, there has been identification of false crossovers, that happens multiple times before actual trend begins. So this could be an instance of one such scenario. Please check for SH's threads (Author-tradewithhunter) where crossovers has been explained in great detail.
Ichimoku Daily
Also as per ichimoku, the top of cloud is 5622. Rule of ichimoku is if the price enters the cloud, there is high probability of the price touching the cloud bottom, 5487. So if nifty is to bounce back, it has to from somewhere near 5622. Another indicator in ichimoku is chikou span. This has crossed below the price action indicating bearishness.
The price entered the cloud but managed to close above the cloud. This could be an indication of major resistance being formed by the cloud to nifty price action. If you had noticed yesterday, nifty remained in that range for a very long time. We have to wait and see if the price will close inside the cloud. If yes, then as mentioned in my quote, 5487 is the next target.
Ichimoku Weekly
Tenken sen and 15 ema now stands at 5573. Kijun is still flat indicating that the price has to touch tenken. Last time tenken was touched was on 3rd September 2012. Also weekly RSI is still overbought.
Weekly charts still shows downside with tenken at 5576. So even nifty manages to reach 5660 (3ema touch and gap filling), there could be another fall to reach this price. Alternatively, if buying is seen in the markets, tenken can move up to touch the price action (very small margin).
Support
However, if a support line was to be drawn from all the previous bottoms in daily, then nifty could touch 5574. This should be a very strong support. This also coincides with the support line drawn from the previous two bottoms in weekly.
At the moment, a double bottom has formed in daily. It could be a bounce back from here. It is enter long with stop below the cloud (5617) or wait and watch.
All in all, it is a wait and watch, or a risky long till 5660, followed by a risky short till 5576. Conservatively we wait this week out and trade next week! All the best!