Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[bugsnj]

Nifty Update: As long as Nifty holds recent low of 5970, one needs to stay bullish. Fresh entry on a positional basis needs to be made only above the recent high or below the recent low for substantial gains. Currently we are in a range bound ' no trade zone'. Better to be more stock specific. Will post an update once some clarity emerges.

PraDa

Hi Prada/all,

Based on today's closing range of 5999 and your resistance level of 5970, is there any opportunity to enter fresh longs if Nifty hovers around 5970-5990 and above? Also, what is the trigger that it may go down further and we should desist from entering longs?

Warm regards,
bugsnj.

 

[prada]

Nifty Update: In the below post I had mentioned that if there was a reversal, then it should be expected this week or max next week. It clearly now looks like the recent rally was a pure short covering rally. This now is a reversal and market needs to be looked at from a bearish point of view in the short term. Sell at cmp and on every rise with an initial target of 5850.

PraDa

Bull's Eye. Need to reassess the market from here. If there is a reversal, it should happen this week or max next week. If there is no reversal by then, Nifty will head into a Euphoria stage from here. In any case, we are heading into a crucial inflection point. Will reassess the market and post an update in a few days. If one is long on positional basis, continue to hold the positions with SL at 6050 spot on closing basis and trail it as the market goes higher.

PraDa

 

[Sultaan]

Now telling that you hold Shorts from Higher Levels........is bit cruel. At least pls tell till what lvls Shorts Can be held.

Cheers

lol he is the forever bear pk... even last year he was crying wolf from 55/5700... typical...

the usual collapse around the corner...3600/4000/...

 

[prada]

Thanks for taking your time out in going through each and every post in this thread. Detractors surely motivate the best to rise above the rest! Please try contributing productively next time or avoid wasting.the thread space.

PraDa

lol he is the forever bear pk... even last year he was crying wolf from 55/5700... typical...

the usual collapse around the corner...3600/4000/...

 

[Sultaan]

Thanks for taking your time out in going through each and every post in this thread. Detractors surely motivate the best to rise above the rest! Please try contributing productively next time or avoid wasting.the thread space.

PraDa

i do go thru on & off... but your general inclination is quite visible since 2 years... I had commented beginning of this year when you were talking doomsdays that 52/5300 is gonna happen this year, but your bear mkt is not gonna come...

that is exactly why i questioned him, since he seems receptive to being questioned...



but he is not to blame, each & every elliotician who i am in touch with were looking for a bad bear market since the beginning of this bull... many stages they called it a top... & were proven wrong... a few called tops at 4900 (last year) then 52/55/57/5900...

U say last 5 years bear mkt, I say after 5 year massive bull mkt (03/08) 5 yrs consolidation (which is excellent) 52/5300 is the key... for the massive bull mkt ahead of us to make a final couple yrs run... banks / auto / pharma / IT all either consolidating or in new bull mkt highs already... oil (the mega giants) all waking up after the current steps being taken by govt. I see is a quarter of correction after 4 quarters upmove of HH HLs... weekly charts were highly over bought...

beauty eye beholder etc etc

wahji, 4700 to 6100 now a retracement & the bears come alive after months of starvation n death of their shorts... on a correction / retrace which also was well expected... comeon even till 50 / 63 % correction is good but 1 month of correction & you call it bear mkt already ??? also the major rally has been in large caps & previous bull mkt have been doing the same with sector rotations... small / mid caps usually participate in last leg of major bull mkts in india..

& also if we see on a longer term, our mkt is just moving sideways... after the 2003 / 07 move...:thumb:

 

[Stock trendy]

It is very unfortunate ...

 

[Stock trendy]

Nifty Update: In the below post I had mentioned that if there was a reversal, then it should be expected this week or max next week. It clearly now looks like the recent rally was a pure short covering rally. This now is a reversal and market needs to be looked at from a bearish point of view in the short term. Sell at cmp and on every rise with an initial target of 5850.

PraDa

Unfortunate ..or fortunate only time will tell..
if 5970 double bottom holds still have big chance to pull it high
sl 5850 as prada clearly stated...
No one can be perfect in TA find your own way to trade..

 

[sridhar]

Guys!

We are squabbling about an Index that has been blatantly manipulated, with official wink & nod, to show as if all is well with the Indian economy.

If you factor in inflation then a life-time high would be around 7500 or 9000 depending on the rate of inflation you consider. So taking, for arguments sake, the higher figure we are 33% from the top. So 33% discount to the current index is 3960. And that is the effective index rate at which you are getting many good quality stocks. So technically both of you are correct. Only remember market nowadays is moving in steps of 200-250 points with sharp swings on both sides. And it is being blatantly manipulated by both FIIs & DIIs ( to some extent) as retail & HNIs have stayed away.

We have already started slowly re-building up our portfolio & identifying stocks for fresh investments. It is literally a feast of available choices & sector wise we have to choose between many almost similarly excellent but beaten down stocks. Some which we have identified are giving div. yeilds of over 3% which can only go up in the years to come.

How does a stock having dividend yield of 3%, which will zoom to 6% in 5 years, no Debt, No promoter pledging, market value a fraction of book value look as an investment option for a holding period of 10 years? And that is exactly the sort of companies that some of the Long Only FIIs seem to be investing in.

 

[poortrader]

Guys!

We are squabbling about an Index that has been blatantly manipulated, with official wink & nod, to show as if all is well with the Indian economy.

If you factor in inflation then a life-time high would be around 7500 or 9000 depending on the rate of inflation you consider. So taking, for arguments sake, the higher figure we are 33% from the top. So 33% discount to the current index is 3960. And that is the effective index rate at which you are getting many good quality stocks. So technically both of you are correct. Only remember market nowadays is moving in steps of 200-250 points with sharp swings on both sides. And it is being blatantly manipulated by both FIIs & DIIs ( to some extent) as retail & HNIs have stayed away.

We have already started slowly re-building up our portfolio & identifying stocks for fresh investments. It is literally a feast of available choices & sector wise we have to choose between many almost similarly excellent but beaten down stocks. Some which we have identified are giving div. yeilds of over 3% which can only go up in the years to come.

How does a stock having dividend yield of 3%, which will zoom to 6% in 5 years, no Debt, No promoter pledging, market value a fraction of book value look as an investment option for a holding period of 10 years? And that is exactly the sort of companies that some of the Long Only FIIs seem to be investing in.

Will you name the stocks?
Also you said "We have already started slowly re-building up our portfolio & identifying stocks for fresh investments."
Does 'we' mean you are a advisory or company?

 

[sridhar]

Will you name the stocks?
Also you said "We have already started slowly re-building up our portfolio & identifying stocks for fresh investments."
Does 'we' mean you are a advisory or company?

Let me finish our studies. Will be by mid of Dec.

By we I mean our Family investments. Do not have the infrastructure & legal requirements to offer PMS.

The few stocks identified till now are:-

IDBI Bank, Balmer Lawrie, National Peroxide, Kirloskar Oil Engines.

All these are for 10 yrs hold with dividend yield (on Original Investments made now) rising to 7-8% in 3-5 years.