Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[fragileninja]

Looks like Nifty support is gone this week. Nifty future can now swiftly fall to around 6050-70 level.

Also, this expiry FIIs are positioning on the short side so far. Remember that they are were sitting on 400,000+ net long contracts on Index futures at the start of the series. They are now unwinding these positions. If this continues next week then we will see downside momentum increase substantially.

 

[prada]

Hi, Having come close to 6100, it would be prudent to book profit if one is short in the market. Nifty looks quite oversold and a bounce back is necessary to go short again. Nifty looks set to go below 6000 in this correction , however market never moves in a straight line. Wait for a move wherein Nifty tests 6220-6240(spot) and then go short( this should happen in the coming week ). Only the short term trend has turned down so far , whereas both the medium and long term trend is still looking up. All the best to your trading!

PraDa

Hi Prada,

As we are neaing 6100 range, is there an opportunity to go long again, or hold on till it settles down at 6100 range and makes an up movement again?

Thanks.

 

[RavishReport]

Hi, Having come close to 6100, it would be prudent to book profit if one is short in the market. Nifty looks quite oversold and a bounce back is necessary to go short again. Nifty looks set to go below 6000 in this correction , however market never moves in a straight line. Wait for a move wherein Nifty tests 6220-6240(spot) and then go short( this should happen in the coming week ). Only the short term trend has turned down so far , whereas both the medium and long term trend is still looking up. All the best to your trading!

PraDa

Good observation, having same views.

 

[prada]

Nifty Update: The downside from here looks limited. Major support exists at every 10-20 pts below 6000 and I expect a sharp bounce back in a few sessions. Aggressive traders can start nibbling below 6000(spot) with a target of 6140. Nifty looks extremely oversold on most time frames. Its going to be quite interesting to figure out whether the upcoming pull back is going to be a simple short covering move or a reversal to new highs. Crucial Support band- (5940-6000).

PraDa

 

[sanjeev258380]

6100 touched in spot..wat next expecting sir

 

[prada]

Bull's Eye. Need to reassess the market from here. If there is a reversal, it should happen this week or max next week. If there is no reversal by then, Nifty will head into a Euphoria stage from here. In any case, we are heading into a crucial inflection point. Will reassess the market and post an update in a few days. If one is long on positional basis, continue to hold the positions with SL at 6050 spot on closing basis and trail it as the market goes higher.

PraDa

Nifty Update: The downside from here looks limited. Major support exists at every 10-20 pts below 6000 and I expect a sharp bounce back in a few sessions. Aggressive traders can start nibbling below 6000(spot) with a target of 6140. Nifty looks extremely oversold on most time frames. Its going to be quite interesting to figure out whether the upcoming pull back is going to be a simple short covering move or a reversal to new highs. Crucial Support band- (5940-6000).

PraDa

 

[sridhar]

Option Pain chart on Options Oracle is showing a possible series expiry @ 6150 (Nifty F1).

I have been observing the option pain ( from some other web sites that have now discontinued it now) for a few months. Now can only rely on Options Oracle.
Last few months till September expiry were bang on as per the option pain. In October the option pain target was breached on the up side by over 200 points in the last 2 days & there was not much of unwinding. Looks like even the smart FIIs were caught on the wrong foot.

Let us see how this month plays out. BTW Dec expiry is now showing 6000. It was 5800 a week ago. Still early days but looks like we are going to have range bound December also.

 

[prada]

Nifty Update: As long as Nifty holds recent low of 5970, one needs to stay bullish. Fresh entry on a positional basis needs to be made only above the recent high or below the recent low for substantial gains. Currently we are in a range bound ' no trade zone'. Better to be more stock specific. Will post an update once some clarity emerges.

PraDa

Bull's Eye. Need to reassess the market from here. If there is a reversal, it should happen this week or max next week. If there is no reversal by then, Nifty will head into a Euphoria stage from here. In any case, we are heading into a crucial inflection point. Will reassess the market and post an update in a few days. If one is long on positional basis, continue to hold the positions with SL at 6050 spot on closing basis and trail it as the market goes higher.

PraDa

 

[sridhar]

In Nifty-F1 day chart I am getting following important levels:-

A] Moderate resistance
6086 - resistance on both Daily Volume & also Support & Resistance method.
6082 & 6068 are 2 Fibbonachi levels on 2 larger time frame movements I am tracking.

B] Strong resistance
6000 - resistance on Daily volume basis.
5989 - resistance on Daily Support & Resistance method.
5994 is 2 Fibbonachi level.

Looks like 6086 will crack on EOD basis. However a pullback to 6100-6086 levels Intra-day looks likely.

 

[sridhar]

On daily chart I am seeing formation of Head & Shoulder pattern with 29/10 & 13/11 as neckline days.

Can anybody confirm this?
Also for drawing the neckline do we use low of the day or closing levels?