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Firstly, Let me wish one and all a Happy Independence Day!
Nifty Update: Having crossed the first two hurdles, we are at the brink of testing the 3rd crucial level which also happens to be the 200 day EMA. This area is an extremely high congestion zone with plenty of minor and major resistance levels placed every 15-20 pts higher. If one is long in the market, its well advised to liquidate some positions from here since the risk is not worth it. Once this move plays out, a phase of capitulation is foreseen in the market with extremely sharp cuts. My medium term target is still well in the game and it should be hit within 40-45 days.
All the best to your trading!
Nifty Update: Having crossed the first two hurdles, we are at the brink of testing the 3rd crucial level which also happens to be the 200 day EMA. This area is an extremely high congestion zone with plenty of minor and major resistance levels placed every 15-20 pts higher. If one is long in the market, its well advised to liquidate some positions from here since the risk is not worth it. Once this move plays out, a phase of capitulation is foreseen in the market with extremely sharp cuts. My medium term target is still well in the game and it should be hit within 40-45 days.
All the best to your trading!
The DOW is seen heading lower in September due to a no. of factors including stimulus unwinding, budget ceiling talks and change of Fed. chairman. It seems like all negative factors converging together at the same time.... It is reported that Soros Fund Management’s bought large quantities of puts of over 1.2 Mil. units of SPY.
So if DOW which has been uptrending all along gives way, which way our markets go? Not hard to guess.
BTW DOW is down 1.42% today, so a sharp gap down is expected in the Nifty. Considering that this looked like a buildup to a rally, all longs will unwind, and shorts should get added tomorrow.
Lets see how it all unfolds.
So if DOW which has been uptrending all along gives way, which way our markets go? Not hard to guess.
BTW DOW is down 1.42% today, so a sharp gap down is expected in the Nifty. Considering that this looked like a buildup to a rally, all longs will unwind, and shorts should get added tomorrow.
Lets see how it all unfolds.
USD/INR update: As updated in one of my earlier posts, target of 62 is here. I had clearly pointed out in that post that RBI's move will back fire and it surely did. RBI has surely made a mess out of the situation and salvaging the same from here is not going to be an easy task. Although, personally I will not blame this grim state of economic affairs entirely on RBI( since they have limited scope ), they could have certainly tried out a number of fire fighting measures much earlier. Government has most certainly dug their own grave with a record number of corruption charges against them. Tons of lakhs of crores which have gone into various Swiss/politician's accounts, evading government's exchequer has ballooned up government debt/CAD and our currency is only exposing the mess the government is in. Having kissed 62, USD now has resistance at 63.5 and my eventual target is 65.62 before a meaningful correction. This is definitely not the end of the road for USD/INR. Memories of 1991 economic crisis must be already playing in the minds of our politicians. ' All talk and no play ' is only completely sinking the already half sunk ship. With only a few months left before the next General elections, I don't see any new developments happening in Delhi except for some diplomatic talk/false assurances by P.C in various press conferences. Terrible times ahead for Indian economy......
PraDa
PraDa
Gap filled today!. Great analysis.
On daily charts I am now seeing a gap, formed on 7/9/2012, between 5231.1 & 5329.95. Is this reading correct? If yes when do you feel it will get filled?
I am seeing the following important levels:- 5323 as weekly 200ema & 5279 as monthly 50ema. Also 5350 to 5200 seems like a consolidation & distribution zone on daily charts. Do you agree?
On daily charts I am now seeing a gap, formed on 7/9/2012, between 5231.1 & 5329.95. Is this reading correct? If yes when do you feel it will get filled?
I am seeing the following important levels:- 5323 as weekly 200ema & 5279 as monthly 50ema. Also 5350 to 5200 seems like a consolidation & distribution zone on daily charts. Do you agree?
Although, plenty of supports exist all along the way until 5000 , meaningful ones would be - 5305- 5223- 5147 - 5030 - 4770. Ideally , I expect Nifty to cut through various support levels in a brutal fashion with bouts of shallow short covering from here on. This is precisely what I meant by ' a phase of capitulation ' if you had referred to my earlier post.
Good catch re H&S.
I am getting 4769.22 as 61.8% Fibbonachi re-tracement of the long term move from 2228(27/10/2008 lowest) to highest of 6340(25/3/13). I am taking daily highs & lows & not candle opening/closing.
4800 seems to be a major distribution are. I feel if 5100 is breached then next stop is going to be 4800.
I am getting 4769.22 as 61.8% Fibbonachi re-tracement of the long term move from 2228(27/10/2008 lowest) to highest of 6340(25/3/13). I am taking daily highs & lows & not candle opening/closing.
4800 seems to be a major distribution are. I feel if 5100 is breached then next stop is going to be 4800.
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