Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[anup]

Dear Members, I am humbled by your words. It is nice to see you'll benefiting from my posts made out here. I am sure most of you'll visiting this thread were forewarned well in advance and not trapped in this bear run unlike most of the retail crowd.

Now coming to the technicals. Today nifty closed below its 200 EMA which is a significant development. The last time it happened was in July 2012. However, I expect a bounce back from the lower end of the falling channel before the next leg of the downward journey begins. Positional traders can have a stop of 5795 and can start booking part profits from here on before re-entering their shorts at higher levels. Bounce backs will be quite shallow from here on.

So can we buy long around 5550 to 5600 (if reaches) and buy short around 5780(if reaches)

 

[jamit_05]

jamit i hope u will suggest stocks 4 lt at that time::rofl:

have an entire thread dedicated to it... it is a very interesting topic.

 

[NANDAMAD]

Thank you for your long term views with such great confidence. No doubt got
benefitted. More that the financial benefits you have instilled a feeling that
with systematic studies, we can trade effortlessly. I am really dumbfounded by
your confidence.

 

[DSM]

Thanks for starting this thread Prada. Your post have made us money, but more than than has helped to take a long term view of the market, and not focus too much on intraday fluctations, which is painful and difficult to handle, but necessary, to take a long term view and do positional trades. You were right on your call. It was very much ahead of the downtrend that followed. Basically you were the lone voice who stuck your neck out and got ridiculed and visciously attacked. It requires courage to take a stand and state it in a forum, especially when the majority opinion is against you. Some members resorted to personal attacks instead of stating their differences or opinions objectively, or disagreeing with your analysis respectfully. I was wondering what would happen to your reputation and your thread if the market would turn against your call. After all taking a position is having more odds on your side and is not a 100% certanity. So thanks once again for sharing your views, and do keep posting so that we can learn and benefit from your knowledge and experience. And even to the dedicated followers of Prada, I only say - that learn from him, but do your own analysis. Prada or anyother analyst is not infalliable, and can also be wrong.

Dear Members, I am humbled by your words. It is nice to see you'll benefiting from my posts made out here. I am sure most of you'll visiting this thread were forewarned well in advance and not trapped in this bear run unlike most of the retail crowd.

Now coming to the technicals. Today nifty closed below its 200 EMA which is a significant development. The last time it happened was in July 2012. However, I expect a bounce back from the lower end of the falling channel before the next leg of the downward journey begins. Positional traders can have a stop of 5795 and can start booking part profits from here on before re-entering their shorts at higher levels. Bounce backs will be quite shallow from here on.

 

[eevra]

So can we buy long around 5550 to 5600 (if reaches) and buy short around 5780(if reaches)

Sir,
Many thx for your postings!!
May I know what makes you comment that the price will bounce from the channel bottom. Is it a hope or a premonition or on sound fundas ?

would appreciate your response pls. This would form a step in my learning ground, I hope..

 

[DSM]

Technical analysis is based on charts not on premonition!! Bull or Bear markets are not one way street, there are always going to be bounce backs. Study as many EOD charts that you can, and you will observe the patterns happening many times over. Understand from your own study and learning will surely follow. Self analysis is better than being told something. And if you take time to understand (not just read) Prada's analysis, he has commented that he EXPECTS a bounce back from the 'lower end of the falling channel' One can call it pullback, retracement, fibonacchi level, hitting the stops, or oversold level on the charts. The fitting explanation will come post facto!

Sir,
Many thx for your postings!!
May I know what makes you comment that the price will bounce from the channel bottom. Is it a hope or a premonition or on sound fundas ?

would appreciate your response pls. This would form a step in my learning ground, I hope..

 

[prada]

Nifty Update: Nifty is on its way to test its first meaningful support zone- 5510-5530 before any meaningful short covering sets in. Until then bounce backs are only going to be shallow. Analysts expect 5600 to hold and this level should give way in the next few sessions. Bigger picture looks quite ugly( not a surprise ). Will keep you'll posted once the move plays out.

 

[anup]

Hi Prada, Thanks for the update... Its really useful... I have shorted nifty on every rise and made good profit... Until your next update, my mantra will be sell on every rise

 

[rajasree1]

ref post - 1149
I am ready to reverse my position at 5590 lvl for an up move 5870.
It could be wrong but it is purely on the basis of my study.
Happy HOLI to all.

 

[prada]

Here it is TAMO languishing near the target. Gave the short close to 310. Stock market has taught me a few good lessons over the years:

1. Patience, which is very very important in every facet of life.
2.To control emotions.
3. Not to be greedy.
4. Stick to your conviction when you are sure of being on the right side.

Time to pile on short positions in Nifty above 5980-6020 for some bear's delight. High conviction(risk) short on Tata motors can be taken as well. Though I've been recommending short positions on Tata motors(from 330 odd levels) to some of our members (through PM) who've been asking for some recos, I will will now make it an open reco for the benefit of other members as well. Target 250. Short on every rise recommended.