Elliott Wave theory - why does it work?

kkseal

Well-Known Member
#81
Thanks for your answers.

EW is fractal, lower wave labels can be used to confirm higher order fractals.
Thought so but in other EW threads i have seen people apparently counting these sub-waves on the same tf chart. So wanted a confirmation.


hmm..Triple Screen of Elders variety? All said and done, EW is much more useful than all of Dr.Vendor Elders nonsense.
I too have some doubts about Elder's methods specially his top-down approach which goes against the natural order of price development & its manifestation.
For EW my thoughts were that perhaps linking the wave sequence in one time frame with that of ones in higher & lower timeframes might help remove some of the ambiguity associated with wave counts. But the subjectivity would remain in all timeframes - higher & lower - and as such it's doubtful how much this would help in the end.

BTW, liked the Heisenberg UP analogy. More apt in the case of MAs & other filters where we desire the best location both price-wise & time-wise simultaneously. With EW, i'd be happy with the location alone on the price-time plane (more precisely the direction such locations suggest) if it could be ascertained unambiguously at any instant.

Regards,
Kalyan.
 
U

uasish

Guest
#82
kkseal,
As you have cognized but
for any body not trying "lateral thinking" on chart it Will be difficult to understand
CV's remark of Heisenberg analogy,he actually meant Price & Momentum,on any chart and
"Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle" (this is Quantam physics ,the famous
"The Observer Effect" & Schrdinger's debate with Eienstin etc etc)
implies that if we continue increasing the accuracy with which one of these is measured
(or defined), the other will be measured (or defined) with less and less accuracy."
His approach to EW is indisputable but here is my internal contradiction:

As you have mentioned about Left Lobe & Right Lobe ,i doubt after my Medulla oblangita,
god may have forgotten to put the Left lobe.Havent you heard that joke The astute
state-of-art Ford Car bought by somebody stopped running after few months,all the Chief
Engg. were summoned ,this has never happened with any brand new Ford,these guys when opened
the bonnet found the E N G I N E was missing,then they concluded as the manufacturer was
'Ford' hence this car ran for few months simply on GOODWILL.This may also have happened
with my Left Lobe.

Positivism:

Positivism is a philosophy that states that the only authentic knowledge is scientific
knowledge, and that such knowledge can only come from positive affirmation of theories
through strict scientific method. It was developed by Auguste Comte (widely regarded as
the first true sociologist) in the middle of the 19th century.

Modern positivism

The key features of positivism as of the 1950s, are:

1) A focus on science as a product, a linguistic or numerical set of statements;
2) A concern with axiomatization, that is, with demonstrating the logical structure and
coherence of these statements;
3) An insistence on at least some of these statements being testable, that is amenable
to being verified, confirmed, or falsified by the empirical observation of reality;
statements that would, by their nature, be regarded as untestable included the
theological; (Thus positivism rejects much of classical metaphysics.)
4) The belief that science is markedly cumulative;
5) The belief that science is predominantly transcultural;
6) The belief that science rests on specific results that are dissociated from the
personality and social position of the investigator;
7) The belief that science contains theories or research traditions that are largely
commensurable;
8) The belief that science sometimes incorporates new ideas that are discontinuous from
old ones;
9) The belief that science involves the idea of the unity of science, that there is,
underlying the various scientific disciplines, basically one science about one real
world.
Positivism is also depicted as "the view that all true knowledge is scientific,"
and that all things are ultimately measurable. Positivism is closely related to
reductionism, both involve the view that "entities of one kind... are reducible to
entities of another," such as societies to numbers, or mental events to chemical
events. It also involves the contention that "processes are reducible to physiological,
physical or chemical events," and even that "social processes are reducible to
relationships between and actions of individuals," or that "biological organisms are
reducible to physical systems."

Upto now most of the system based traders will agree (self included) & about
non effectiveness of EW.

Now steps in My Self Contradiction:

Philosophical issues of Positivism:

Certain problems arise with the positivist belief system once it is accepted:

Since all of our most certain knowledge, namely, that of our ourselves and our
own mental states, is inaccessible to objective science (being personal), how
is positivism to account for what we know? And since our inferences about what
we do not directly know, but only surmise on the basis of our A C T U A L
E X P E R I E N C E,(my invain attempt to convey to a non-pro)comprise the
objective world of scientific entities imagined by positivist philosophy,how
is it supposed to be possible to account for any knowledge
at all positivistically?;
Since the self and its knowledge is known and OUR experiences (not only subjectively but)
Q U A L I T A T I V E L Y not quantitavely, how is it supposed to be possible ? to give an
objective quantitative account of the source and core of all knowledge--scientific
and otherwise------- ?;
If an experience is 'reduced' to something else, does it cease to exist as a
subjective qualitative thing, or not? If not, doesn't it remain in a crucial sense
unreduced to a 'scientific' object? If so, what inspired the 'reduction'?; and
Since ideology is unscientific, how is a 'SCIENTIFIC' IDEOLOGY supposed to escape
internal contradiction?

Asish
 
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oilman5

Well-Known Member
#83
The good thing about such a debate is that one gets a holistic pespective - fom the point of views of the believer, the non-believer & the ambivalent.
I am an out & out system trader ,if it is a buy even on catastrophic days i will look to buy only,but knowledge on wave definetly improves Exit.
The objective for any trader looking to last long in this business is to reduce as much stress from decision making and that means using forms of 'probablistic' techniques instead of 'predictive' techniques.As uashish has said I suppose we are all entitled to our own beliefs..........a classic debate on input of philosophy on trading and scientific mind . great men think alike.
 
U

uasish

Guest
#84
Rat Poision:

Accuracy in biostatistics
"Accuracy" is also used as a statistical measure of how well a binary classification test
correctly identifies or excludes a condition.

Condition (e.g. Disease)
As determined by "Gold" standard
True False
Test
outcome Positive True Positive False Positive ? Positive Predictive Value
Negative False Negative True Negative ? Negative Predictive Value
?
Sensitivity ?
Specificity Accuracy

That is, the accuracy is the proportion of false positives and true negatives in the
population. It is a parameter of the test.


An accuracy of 100% means that the test recognizes all sick and well people as such.

Yet unable to employ the Module.

Asish
 
U

uasish

Guest
#85
Why i termed CV as a pro ,becoz he wanted to draw my attention to "Cognitive Bias",while discussing Usefullness of EW in actual trading.

A cognitive bias is any of a wide range of observer effects identified in cognitive science and social psychology including very basic statistical, social attribution, and memory errors that are common to all human beings. Biases drastically skew the reliability of anecdotal and legal evidence. Social biases, usually called attributional biases, affect our everyday social interactions. And biases related to probability and decision making significantly affect the scientific method which is deliberately designed to minimize such
bias from any one observer.

Now see how CV went to draw our attention (post no 68) for Empherical Data of EW.


Empirical

A central concept in science and the scientific method is that all evidence must be
empirical, or empirically based, that is, dependent on evidence or consequences that are
observable by the senses. That is, empirical data are data that are produced by experiment
or observation. It is usually differentiated from the philosophic usage of empiricism by
the use of the adjective "empirical" or the adverb "empirically." "Empirical" as an
adjective or adverb is used in conjunction with both the natural and social sciences, and
refers to the use of working hypotheses that are testable using observation or experiment.
In this sense of the word, scientific statements are subject to and derived from our
EXPERIENCES or observations.


In a second sense "empirical" in science may be synonymous with "experimental." In this
sense, an empirical result is an experimental observation. In this context, the term
semi-empirical is used for qualifying theoretical methods which use in part basic axioms or
postulated scientific laws and experimental results. Such methods are opposed to theoretical
"ab initio methods" which are purely deductive and based on first principles.

In statistics, "empirical" quantities are those computed from OBSERVED VALUES, as opposed
to those derived from theoretical considerations.

The use of the adjective empirical, especially in scientific studies using statistics, may
also indicate that a particular correlation between two parameters has been found, but that
so far, no theory for the mechanism of the connection is known.

This discussion is actually helping me ,enriching me (in an exchange of notes),this is
precisely why i term this to be an Agust forum ,thoughts which ignites the quest,when it
crosses the firewall of 'Cognitive & Deductive' ,running the antivirus takes away my night
hours.
Trading is an intregal part,at the time of this post i am trading,position taken on signals
generated,SL order issued,nothing more to due,(the alert in PIB is ignited to warn me),chart
is open in the background ,& i am typing this post.

Asish
 
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U

uasish

Guest
#86
As per EW (academically watch) 'Eveready Industries' is in 5th Down wave
It should not traverse to 71.95 (1st Waves Low) ,its 3rd Wave Low 58.65 ,broken to-day downwardly,(to-day's Open & High= 59.00 ),self Shorted to-day at 10.05,alas it is not available at Fut (& i shrted becoz MS gave me the signal) ,now the SL is below my shorting level.
Watch this for few days.(Now - 6.93 %)

Asish
 
U

uasish

Guest
#87
People having good Intraday live charts (CV has Trade Station & he is not here) plz see how High volume trades are being executed.Though the RSI showing (+)ve divergences at 1.37 am ,plz watch the outcome.
 
U

uasish

Guest
#88
kkseal,
Anybody having Rs 6000/= cash in trading a/c could have shorted a 60/= stock in 1000 Nos.
It would have given a (56.75 - 54.75,just 10 mins ago) a cool 33.33 % gain on 1 single day,for his knowledge (hind sight based 3rd Waves Low = 58.65 ,once broken will SLIDE down).
For all practical purpose in Intraday chart Shorting above 56.75 ,though the Open is 59/=(simmulation s/w can have shorted ) was not possible,to-day.

Asish
 
U

uasish

Guest
#89
Yes sir, I understand. Let me not interfere. I'm sorry I did so.
Ajay,
To admit frankly i was annoyed ,will never discourage your scientific attitude ,however time has calmed down the initial discomfort of this (insulin dependent highly diabetic ) comrade of yours.
Looking forward to your participation.

Asish
 
U

uasish

Guest
#90
Time to close Cash Intraday positions in 'Eveready Industries',& closed 80 % in 54.80 ,balance PIB system will sq up.
On a day when Nifty is (+) 57.25 points EI has (-)ve 6.59 % .
 

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