U
Hi,
Mkt humbles me everyday,i will have to make a call as money is involved.
There is a possibility of bounce, my logics :=
1)On Monthly chart the earlier correction reversed from the Low (of 30/06/06,bar) & again
ended (High of 27/2/07,bar),the Fib 23.6% of that is 3854.15 & Mon's Low is 3856.70 (which
is not breached today).
2)Nifty near month's "PTI" of Get is 31 (150 bar count),clearly indicating there is a probability
of the 5th Down fizziling out before reaching its destination,hence a weakness in the
structural count.Now if we change to Alternate-3 Long term ,it is seen that this is the
4th wave unfolding downwards with a 1st phase a-b-c correction,so the down Tgt for "c"
may be 0.618 (Fib Extension) of "a"(14th Feb Low) "b"(19th Feb High) & its .618 extension
is 3846.65.Now in cash Nifty it is 3836.95.
3)My trading experience has taught me whenever there is a confluence area of 2 Fibs drawn
with 2 different impulse wave that Zone acts as a Supp/Res point,here cash Nifty 3854.15
to 3836.95 is that confluence zone.
4)FII are selling heavily Nifty Fut.so what ?(we have also protected our portfolio),the new FIIs
are in a dillemma whether Mr Chidanbaran is going to allow long term (a 12 month holding)tax
benifit or not hence they cant sell in cash so hedgeing in futures.Hence all this short in the
system has to be covered.
5)After a Bullish Harami there is an Engulfing Bear on the daily chart in a downtrend.
How do i know whether this falling knife is going to stop here temporarily so that i can
make my exit strategy ? Answer to this at mkt place tommorrow is
a) If nearing confluence zone how the spot (3836.95)& fut Nifty (3846.65) behaves.
b) Finance minister keeps long term capital gains tax intact.
Asish
Mkt humbles me everyday,i will have to make a call as money is involved.
There is a possibility of bounce, my logics :=
1)On Monthly chart the earlier correction reversed from the Low (of 30/06/06,bar) & again
ended (High of 27/2/07,bar),the Fib 23.6% of that is 3854.15 & Mon's Low is 3856.70 (which
is not breached today).
2)Nifty near month's "PTI" of Get is 31 (150 bar count),clearly indicating there is a probability
of the 5th Down fizziling out before reaching its destination,hence a weakness in the
structural count.Now if we change to Alternate-3 Long term ,it is seen that this is the
4th wave unfolding downwards with a 1st phase a-b-c correction,so the down Tgt for "c"
may be 0.618 (Fib Extension) of "a"(14th Feb Low) "b"(19th Feb High) & its .618 extension
is 3846.65.Now in cash Nifty it is 3836.95.
3)My trading experience has taught me whenever there is a confluence area of 2 Fibs drawn
with 2 different impulse wave that Zone acts as a Supp/Res point,here cash Nifty 3854.15
to 3836.95 is that confluence zone.
4)FII are selling heavily Nifty Fut.so what ?(we have also protected our portfolio),the new FIIs
are in a dillemma whether Mr Chidanbaran is going to allow long term (a 12 month holding)tax
benifit or not hence they cant sell in cash so hedgeing in futures.Hence all this short in the
system has to be covered.
5)After a Bullish Harami there is an Engulfing Bear on the daily chart in a downtrend.
How do i know whether this falling knife is going to stop here temporarily so that i can
make my exit strategy ? Answer to this at mkt place tommorrow is
a) If nearing confluence zone how the spot (3836.95)& fut Nifty (3846.65) behaves.
b) Finance minister keeps long term capital gains tax intact.
Asish