As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- EUR/USD. So, the market is again dominated by buyers of shares and sellers of the dollar. As we already mentioned, the weakening of the dollar, which has become almost the main safe haven asset during the pandemic, is facilitated by the growth of inflation expectations, which exceeded 2.4% and reached a high since 2013. The huge financial injections should lead to a record growth in US GDP, which, accordingly, entails an increase in risk sentiment and investors' attraction to the stock market. S&P500 and Dow Jones indices broke their own records again. The former reached the level of 4,238, the latter - 34,732 points. The euro grew together with them, reaching the height of 1.2170.
However, too fast growth of stock indices and a weakening dollar may induce the US Federal Reserve officials to curtail fiscal stimulus programs quicker. Thus, according to Robert Kaplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, imbalances in financial markets can lead to the fact that it would be better to raise the issues of folding QE sooner rather than later. Otherwise, the U.S. financial system could be under stress.
As for the opinion of experts for the near future, 60% of them, together with the graphical analysis on D1, expect the correction of the EUR/USD pair to a strong support in the area of 1.2000, and in the event of its breakout, a fall another 100 points lower. The nearest support is 1.2055.
The remaining 40% of analysts, together with the graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair's uptrend will continue. The nearest target is the February high at 1.2245, the next target is to reach the January 06 high at 1.2350.
The technical analysis readings are as follows: 100% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored green at the time of writing this review (Friday night May 07). The remaining 25% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.
Among the events of the coming week (and there are not so many of them), the publication of data on the US consumer market on Wednesday May 12 and Friday May 14 should be noted. Data on the consumer market in Germany is also due out on May 12;
- GBP/USD. The forecast for this pair for the coming week is exactly the opposite of the previous one. If the majority of experts voted for the rise of the pair from the central part of the 1.3670-1.4000 channel to its upper border a week ago, now 70% of analysts, along with graphical analysis, predict it will return back to its center at 1.3800. The decision of the Bank of England, which kept interest rates and the volume of the quantitative easing (QE) programme unchanged at its May 06 meeting, should contribute to this.
True, the regulator has reduced the rate of asset buybacks and is optimistic about the rate of economic recovery. But demand for the pound is being held back by the decision to hold interest rates until there are clear signs of a recovery in output and an inflation rate of 2%. The only one who voted to cut QE volumes was the chief economist of the Bank of England, Andrew Haldane. But his vote doesn't mean much as he retires in a month.
Only 30% of experts believe that the GBP/USD pair will be able to break out of the 10-week trading range and rise above the level of 1.4000. In this case, it will rush to the February 24 high of 1.4240, and the resistance levels on its way will be the levels of 1.4085 and 1.4180.
As for technical analysis, its readings are very similar to those for the EUR/USD pair: 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 point north. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.
Looking at the economic calendar for the coming week, I recall the movie "The King's Speech", dedicated to the British monarch George VI. It is just that it will the speech ofthe head of the Bank of England, and it will be a whole series, since Andrew Bailey will give speeches on May 11, 12, and 13. However, investors are unlikely to hear anything from him that could seriously affect their mood. Of greater interest are the UK GDP and consumer market data, which will be published on Wednesday May 12;
- USD/JPY. The indicator readings on both time frames look quite chaotic. Only the trend indicators on H4 clearly point to the south: 85% is colored red here. Graphical analysis depicts a gradual decrease in volatility and consolidation of the pair in the zone 108.35-108.50. But 70% of analysts side with the bears for the third week in a row. Supports are at levels 108.40 and 107.85, the target is 107.45. ¬
The remaining 30% side with the bulls, they expect that the pair will try again to rise above the resistance of 109.00 and gain a foothold in the zone 109.00-109.65;
- cryptocurrencies. As mentioned in the first part of the review, many investors have shifted their attention from the main cryptocurrency to the altcoin market. The BTC/USD pair has not yet managed to break above the 50-day moving average and rise above $60,000. But is this a harbinger of a new crypto winter?
If BTC collapses following the domino effect, other coins may follow. But so far, hopes for the growth of the main cryptocurrency are quite real. Despite the fact that the index of its dominance has decreased from 72.65% to 44.24% since the beginning of the year, its trading volumes are quite high: about $70 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, although has reached the level of "greed", 64 points, but is still far from being overbought.
In the medium term, the fact that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postpones decisions on Bitcoin-ETFs may play against the main cryptocurrency. But many experts are still optimistic. Thus, renowned crypto trader and strategist Mikael van de Poppe has shared a bold prediction for the future of bitcoin. “I am quite confident that we are in a bullish cycle and it is really difficult to rely on a bear market, especially given the inflation of the US dollar,” he said.
“Given the fact that institutional money is flowing in, bitcoin is becoming more widespread. This means that there is now a large demand and a relatively small supply, which will lead to an increase in the price, continues Van de Poppe. - Will Bitcoin get to $300,000 or $500,000? I think so. If we carry out simple calculations, the peak of the BTC rate should be $500,000. Given the data on the top of the cycle, it can be assumed that the average rate will be above $250,000. And it can get to $350,000 - $450,000 within a year.” “But besides, we will have long sideways,” added the specialist cautiously.
Experts at JPMorgan believe that Ethereum may become even more efficient than Bitcoin in the future. They note that this altcoin is more resistant to external factors. Bitcoin, on the other hand, reacts to almost every major fluctuation in the market, which leads to its correction straight away. With a long negative trend, BTC investors begin to withdraw assets quickly.
According to JPMorgan analysts, “Bitcoin is very narrow in its application, which is evident from a variety of factors. It is most often used as an asset for investment. All new major projects are developed on the basis of Ethereum. It has more liquidity. ETH has recently substantially increased its position in the spot market as well. Another advantage of Ethereum is its rather large and developed ecosystem,” they note.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.
#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
- EUR/USD. So, the market is again dominated by buyers of shares and sellers of the dollar. As we already mentioned, the weakening of the dollar, which has become almost the main safe haven asset during the pandemic, is facilitated by the growth of inflation expectations, which exceeded 2.4% and reached a high since 2013. The huge financial injections should lead to a record growth in US GDP, which, accordingly, entails an increase in risk sentiment and investors' attraction to the stock market. S&P500 and Dow Jones indices broke their own records again. The former reached the level of 4,238, the latter - 34,732 points. The euro grew together with them, reaching the height of 1.2170.
However, too fast growth of stock indices and a weakening dollar may induce the US Federal Reserve officials to curtail fiscal stimulus programs quicker. Thus, according to Robert Kaplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, imbalances in financial markets can lead to the fact that it would be better to raise the issues of folding QE sooner rather than later. Otherwise, the U.S. financial system could be under stress.
As for the opinion of experts for the near future, 60% of them, together with the graphical analysis on D1, expect the correction of the EUR/USD pair to a strong support in the area of 1.2000, and in the event of its breakout, a fall another 100 points lower. The nearest support is 1.2055.
The remaining 40% of analysts, together with the graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair's uptrend will continue. The nearest target is the February high at 1.2245, the next target is to reach the January 06 high at 1.2350.
The technical analysis readings are as follows: 100% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored green at the time of writing this review (Friday night May 07). The remaining 25% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.
Among the events of the coming week (and there are not so many of them), the publication of data on the US consumer market on Wednesday May 12 and Friday May 14 should be noted. Data on the consumer market in Germany is also due out on May 12;
- GBP/USD. The forecast for this pair for the coming week is exactly the opposite of the previous one. If the majority of experts voted for the rise of the pair from the central part of the 1.3670-1.4000 channel to its upper border a week ago, now 70% of analysts, along with graphical analysis, predict it will return back to its center at 1.3800. The decision of the Bank of England, which kept interest rates and the volume of the quantitative easing (QE) programme unchanged at its May 06 meeting, should contribute to this.
True, the regulator has reduced the rate of asset buybacks and is optimistic about the rate of economic recovery. But demand for the pound is being held back by the decision to hold interest rates until there are clear signs of a recovery in output and an inflation rate of 2%. The only one who voted to cut QE volumes was the chief economist of the Bank of England, Andrew Haldane. But his vote doesn't mean much as he retires in a month.
Only 30% of experts believe that the GBP/USD pair will be able to break out of the 10-week trading range and rise above the level of 1.4000. In this case, it will rush to the February 24 high of 1.4240, and the resistance levels on its way will be the levels of 1.4085 and 1.4180.
As for technical analysis, its readings are very similar to those for the EUR/USD pair: 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 point north. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.
Looking at the economic calendar for the coming week, I recall the movie "The King's Speech", dedicated to the British monarch George VI. It is just that it will the speech ofthe head of the Bank of England, and it will be a whole series, since Andrew Bailey will give speeches on May 11, 12, and 13. However, investors are unlikely to hear anything from him that could seriously affect their mood. Of greater interest are the UK GDP and consumer market data, which will be published on Wednesday May 12;
- USD/JPY. The indicator readings on both time frames look quite chaotic. Only the trend indicators on H4 clearly point to the south: 85% is colored red here. Graphical analysis depicts a gradual decrease in volatility and consolidation of the pair in the zone 108.35-108.50. But 70% of analysts side with the bears for the third week in a row. Supports are at levels 108.40 and 107.85, the target is 107.45. ¬
The remaining 30% side with the bulls, they expect that the pair will try again to rise above the resistance of 109.00 and gain a foothold in the zone 109.00-109.65;
- cryptocurrencies. As mentioned in the first part of the review, many investors have shifted their attention from the main cryptocurrency to the altcoin market. The BTC/USD pair has not yet managed to break above the 50-day moving average and rise above $60,000. But is this a harbinger of a new crypto winter?
If BTC collapses following the domino effect, other coins may follow. But so far, hopes for the growth of the main cryptocurrency are quite real. Despite the fact that the index of its dominance has decreased from 72.65% to 44.24% since the beginning of the year, its trading volumes are quite high: about $70 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, although has reached the level of "greed", 64 points, but is still far from being overbought.
In the medium term, the fact that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postpones decisions on Bitcoin-ETFs may play against the main cryptocurrency. But many experts are still optimistic. Thus, renowned crypto trader and strategist Mikael van de Poppe has shared a bold prediction for the future of bitcoin. “I am quite confident that we are in a bullish cycle and it is really difficult to rely on a bear market, especially given the inflation of the US dollar,” he said.
“Given the fact that institutional money is flowing in, bitcoin is becoming more widespread. This means that there is now a large demand and a relatively small supply, which will lead to an increase in the price, continues Van de Poppe. - Will Bitcoin get to $300,000 or $500,000? I think so. If we carry out simple calculations, the peak of the BTC rate should be $500,000. Given the data on the top of the cycle, it can be assumed that the average rate will be above $250,000. And it can get to $350,000 - $450,000 within a year.” “But besides, we will have long sideways,” added the specialist cautiously.
Experts at JPMorgan believe that Ethereum may become even more efficient than Bitcoin in the future. They note that this altcoin is more resistant to external factors. Bitcoin, on the other hand, reacts to almost every major fluctuation in the market, which leads to its correction straight away. With a long negative trend, BTC investors begin to withdraw assets quickly.
According to JPMorgan analysts, “Bitcoin is very narrow in its application, which is evident from a variety of factors. It is most often used as an asset for investment. All new major projects are developed on the basis of Ethereum. It has more liquidity. ETH has recently substantially increased its position in the spot market as well. Another advantage of Ethereum is its rather large and developed ecosystem,” they note.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.
#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
