As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- EUR/USD. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank believe that the current situation resembles 2002-2007, when the USD index was going down. According to their analysts, investors will start looking for more attractive international assets over time, and the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair will gain new strength.
But Morgan Stanley experts have the opposite opinion. They believe that current events are more like the 1980s and 1990s, when the dollar strengthened in the face of a large current account deficit. And now this deficit in relation to GDP is the highest since 2008. This is due to the fact that, due to the QE programs, imports to the United States are growing faster than exports. But the DXY dollar index bulls hope that the outpacing dynamics of the US economy compared to the European and global ones will stir up investor interest in the US currency and other assets.
50% of analysts agree with this point of view in the short term, expecting the dollar to strengthen and the EUR/USD pair to fall to the 1.1985-1.2000 zone. The nearest support is 1.2130 and 1.2060. 30% of experts vote for the continuation of the sideways trend in channel 1.2125-1.2265, and another 20% support the breakdown of the upper border of this channel and the growth of the pair to this year's high 1.2350.
It should be noted that when moving from a weekly to medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of strengthening the dollar and the decline of the pair increases from 50% to 70%.
There is a complete discord among the oscillators on H4. D1 is still dominated by green. There are 50% of such oscillators, another 25% are colored red and the remaining 25% are colored neutral gray. Most trend indicators on D1 (75%) point north.
A lot of important economic information is expected in the coming week. We are expecting the publication of data on the consumer market in Germany on Monday, May 31, and there will be similar statistics for the Eurozone as a whole the next day, on Tuesday. Also, there will be information on ISM's business activity in the US manufacturing sector on June 1.
German retail sales data will be released on Wednesday June 2. The report on the level of employment in the private sector and the ISM index of business activity in the US service sector will be released on Thursday, June 3. And there will be data on retail sales in the Eurozone and, traditionally, on the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) at the very end of the working week, on June 4;
- GBP/USD. Some of the experts (60% of them) have considered the statement of Gertjan Vlieghe regarding the increase in interest rates quite specific and, on this basis, expect that the pound will renew its 36-month high at 1.4240 in the near future. In support of their forecast, they remind that the Bank of England improved its forecast regarding the pace of economic recovery in early May, and that the economy should return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the year.
Other analysts (40%), on the contrary, believe that everything looks rather vague, that the first half of 2022 is still very far away, and that a lot can happen during this time. In general, it's too early to rejoice. Especially since they do not sleep overseas either. Therefore, this part of the experts stakes on the dollar and expects the GBP/USD pair to fall. The nearest support levels are 1.4175, 1.4135 and 1.4100. The target is 1.4000.
Technical indicators still side with the bulls. There are 75% of those among the oscillators on D1, 95% among the trend indicators. Graphical analysis shows a downward rebound from resistance 1.4240 and a fall to support 1.4000.
As for the events of the week, two speeches of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on June 1 and 3 can be noted, during which investors will wait for new promises to raise interest rates. Also of interest is the hearing of the UK inflation report, which is scheduled for Thursday June 3;
- USD/JPY. The technical analysis readings for this pair could be called GreenPeace. 90% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on H4, as well as 75% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1 are colored green. The bullish sentiment is also supported by 60% of the experts. The nearest resistance is at 110.00, target No. 1 is the high of the previous week at 110.20, target No. 2 is the renewal of the 21-week high at 110.95.
40% of analysts side with the bears, who expect the pair to return to the channel 108.55-109.75. In case of a breakdown of its lower border, the next target is 107.50;
- cryptocurrencies. - According to billionaire and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubinstein, bitcoin has almost no chance of disappearing completely. Even if the asset loses most of its value, it will still be in demand in its own infrastructure. If the coin continues to rise in price, then even the central banks of the states that opposed cryptocurrencies will begin to consider it.
“New asset types are not just a fleeting craze that quickly ceases to be interesting. We are already talking about hundreds of billions of dollars. The coin, which was originally a means for digital payments, has become a full-fledged asset,” the billionaire believes.
Glassnode data, which indicate a build-up of long-term positions in bitcoin by whales, as well as an outflow of large investors from OTC markets, also confirm Rubinstein’s words. This may indicate another phase of asset accumulation after a deep drawdown, which prevented bitcoin, and after it, the entire cryptocurrency market, from going into a real free fall.
Many influencers are also filled with optimism. The investment company Ark Invest general director Katie Wood confirms her forecast once again. She is confident that, no matter what, bitcoin will still reach $500,000.
Wood says the recent correction has raised the chances of SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) approval for bitcoin funds. The point is, a product with a lower price tag is more likely to get the green light.
In addition, Katie Wood spoke about the statements by Elon Musk that caused the collapse of the crypto market. She suggested that he was pressured by shareholders such as BlackRock to drop the BTC price. However, the head of Ark Invest expects Musk to return to the crypto investor community.
The future of ethereum is seen even more rosy, according to some experts, . Professor of NYU Stern Business School Aswath Damodaran believes that ethereum is better suited for trading on exchanges than bitcoin. According to the expert, the ETH ecosystem is more flexible, which makes it easier to work with it in trades, especially in an environment of increased volatility.
Damodaran noted that many small assets on exchanges are trading better than bitcoin, as transactions with them are faster. The BTC network is much more involved, which means that transfers can take a fairly long period of time, even by the standards of fiat transactions. Therefore, bitcoin is more suitable as a global asset for investment, the specialist believes.
And some statistics at the end of the review. The Dogecoin meme cryptocurrency turns out to be more recognizable than ethereum among US citizens, perhaps thanks to Elon Musk. This is evidenced by the results of a joint survey conducted by Harris Poll and CouponCabin.
The study involved more than 2000 American adults, most of whom (89%) had heard of cryptocurrency at least once. It turned out that 71% of respondents know about bitcoin, 29% about Dogecoin and 21% about Ethereum. The USD Coin stablecoin has the same number, 21%. About 18% of survey participants said they are familiar with Litecoin, 10% have heard about the existence of Stellar.
Digital assets as a get-rich-quick scheme are considered by 23%, and almost a third of respondents (31%) are confident that cryptocurrencies can become the future of money.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.
#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
- EUR/USD. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank believe that the current situation resembles 2002-2007, when the USD index was going down. According to their analysts, investors will start looking for more attractive international assets over time, and the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair will gain new strength.
But Morgan Stanley experts have the opposite opinion. They believe that current events are more like the 1980s and 1990s, when the dollar strengthened in the face of a large current account deficit. And now this deficit in relation to GDP is the highest since 2008. This is due to the fact that, due to the QE programs, imports to the United States are growing faster than exports. But the DXY dollar index bulls hope that the outpacing dynamics of the US economy compared to the European and global ones will stir up investor interest in the US currency and other assets.
50% of analysts agree with this point of view in the short term, expecting the dollar to strengthen and the EUR/USD pair to fall to the 1.1985-1.2000 zone. The nearest support is 1.2130 and 1.2060. 30% of experts vote for the continuation of the sideways trend in channel 1.2125-1.2265, and another 20% support the breakdown of the upper border of this channel and the growth of the pair to this year's high 1.2350.
It should be noted that when moving from a weekly to medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of strengthening the dollar and the decline of the pair increases from 50% to 70%.
There is a complete discord among the oscillators on H4. D1 is still dominated by green. There are 50% of such oscillators, another 25% are colored red and the remaining 25% are colored neutral gray. Most trend indicators on D1 (75%) point north.
A lot of important economic information is expected in the coming week. We are expecting the publication of data on the consumer market in Germany on Monday, May 31, and there will be similar statistics for the Eurozone as a whole the next day, on Tuesday. Also, there will be information on ISM's business activity in the US manufacturing sector on June 1.
German retail sales data will be released on Wednesday June 2. The report on the level of employment in the private sector and the ISM index of business activity in the US service sector will be released on Thursday, June 3. And there will be data on retail sales in the Eurozone and, traditionally, on the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) at the very end of the working week, on June 4;
- GBP/USD. Some of the experts (60% of them) have considered the statement of Gertjan Vlieghe regarding the increase in interest rates quite specific and, on this basis, expect that the pound will renew its 36-month high at 1.4240 in the near future. In support of their forecast, they remind that the Bank of England improved its forecast regarding the pace of economic recovery in early May, and that the economy should return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the year.
Other analysts (40%), on the contrary, believe that everything looks rather vague, that the first half of 2022 is still very far away, and that a lot can happen during this time. In general, it's too early to rejoice. Especially since they do not sleep overseas either. Therefore, this part of the experts stakes on the dollar and expects the GBP/USD pair to fall. The nearest support levels are 1.4175, 1.4135 and 1.4100. The target is 1.4000.
Technical indicators still side with the bulls. There are 75% of those among the oscillators on D1, 95% among the trend indicators. Graphical analysis shows a downward rebound from resistance 1.4240 and a fall to support 1.4000.
As for the events of the week, two speeches of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on June 1 and 3 can be noted, during which investors will wait for new promises to raise interest rates. Also of interest is the hearing of the UK inflation report, which is scheduled for Thursday June 3;
- USD/JPY. The technical analysis readings for this pair could be called GreenPeace. 90% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on H4, as well as 75% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1 are colored green. The bullish sentiment is also supported by 60% of the experts. The nearest resistance is at 110.00, target No. 1 is the high of the previous week at 110.20, target No. 2 is the renewal of the 21-week high at 110.95.
40% of analysts side with the bears, who expect the pair to return to the channel 108.55-109.75. In case of a breakdown of its lower border, the next target is 107.50;
- cryptocurrencies. - According to billionaire and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubinstein, bitcoin has almost no chance of disappearing completely. Even if the asset loses most of its value, it will still be in demand in its own infrastructure. If the coin continues to rise in price, then even the central banks of the states that opposed cryptocurrencies will begin to consider it.
“New asset types are not just a fleeting craze that quickly ceases to be interesting. We are already talking about hundreds of billions of dollars. The coin, which was originally a means for digital payments, has become a full-fledged asset,” the billionaire believes.
Glassnode data, which indicate a build-up of long-term positions in bitcoin by whales, as well as an outflow of large investors from OTC markets, also confirm Rubinstein’s words. This may indicate another phase of asset accumulation after a deep drawdown, which prevented bitcoin, and after it, the entire cryptocurrency market, from going into a real free fall.
Many influencers are also filled with optimism. The investment company Ark Invest general director Katie Wood confirms her forecast once again. She is confident that, no matter what, bitcoin will still reach $500,000.
Wood says the recent correction has raised the chances of SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) approval for bitcoin funds. The point is, a product with a lower price tag is more likely to get the green light.
In addition, Katie Wood spoke about the statements by Elon Musk that caused the collapse of the crypto market. She suggested that he was pressured by shareholders such as BlackRock to drop the BTC price. However, the head of Ark Invest expects Musk to return to the crypto investor community.
The future of ethereum is seen even more rosy, according to some experts, . Professor of NYU Stern Business School Aswath Damodaran believes that ethereum is better suited for trading on exchanges than bitcoin. According to the expert, the ETH ecosystem is more flexible, which makes it easier to work with it in trades, especially in an environment of increased volatility.
Damodaran noted that many small assets on exchanges are trading better than bitcoin, as transactions with them are faster. The BTC network is much more involved, which means that transfers can take a fairly long period of time, even by the standards of fiat transactions. Therefore, bitcoin is more suitable as a global asset for investment, the specialist believes.
And some statistics at the end of the review. The Dogecoin meme cryptocurrency turns out to be more recognizable than ethereum among US citizens, perhaps thanks to Elon Musk. This is evidenced by the results of a joint survey conducted by Harris Poll and CouponCabin.
The study involved more than 2000 American adults, most of whom (89%) had heard of cryptocurrency at least once. It turned out that 71% of respondents know about bitcoin, 29% about Dogecoin and 21% about Ethereum. The USD Coin stablecoin has the same number, 21%. About 18% of survey participants said they are familiar with Litecoin, 10% have heard about the existence of Stellar.
Digital assets as a get-rich-quick scheme are considered by 23%, and almost a third of respondents (31%) are confident that cryptocurrencies can become the future of money.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.
#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market