Hi Optimist,
I have not traded options uptil now but i do have a fair understanding.
I am a day trader of equities and have been doing this for 2 years. I have met successful traders and read about numerous successful traders and investors.
I have yet to come across two traders/investors with identical strategies, which leads one to conclude that there are various strategies that can beat the market in the long run. So don't worry about strategy that much..if you work hard enough you'll get there.
However, you do have some cause to worry. All successful traders and investors have one thing in common:
ROCK SOLID RISK MANAGEMENT
The reason i write this in bold is that you have made one of the many rookie mistakes that puts over 98% people out of this business. You have employed 99 % of your total capital on one trade. This fails any risk management regime that has ever survived. Most successful traders/investors NEVER employ more than 2% of their capital on one trade.
The reasons you have chosen options over equity could be numerous. Maybe you could never cut your losses with equity. Maybe you understand options better. Whatever the instrument, you should NEVER rule out the possibility of the position being a losing position forever (in your case, till expiry). Believe me, if you trade/invest in the markets for a few months, you'll be faced with these 'never turned profitable' positions often.
The only way you will make money in this business is to have enough capital to trade/invest in the future. If you want to make money, you should have enough money to put on the next trade. That, my friend, is an impossibility if you keep 99% capital in one pocket, because the market is an expert pick pocketer. Always have capital in the other pocket, because if you go near the market again, it will be ready again. And in your socks and briefs, , because the market can strip you to your briefs. And up your ass, so that you can have money to grow on even the day of the apocalypse.
There is no room for optimists or pessimists in trading. Only realists survive. Of course realists also dream, but they manage risk realistically which helps them accumulate wealth that is in huge exaggeration of even their expectations.
The problem with your trade (if you have not figured out by now) is that there is a good chance while putting on any trade of the position NEVER coming into profit. The best profit you could hope to get from this trade you have put on is that you get completely wiped out and are left with Rs250 instead of Rs25,000 or worse, more!! That, my friend, would bring you one tiny step closer to your goal, that is, if you learn your lesson from it.
If, on the other hand, you manage to come out with a profit from this trade (whether 5 rupees or Rs 25000 cr), you will wipe out all your capital very soon. And after that, with a probability greater than 98%, you will either quit the markets, or make the same mistake over and over again.
I hope my post scares you to death; so much so that you dream of becoming the best risk manager the world has ever seen. For that you would need loads of optimism, which you already seem to have. If you do become that, then I can assure you that your target will be a byproduct of your venture, and not just an optimists dream.
PS: I am an optimist who has discovered the power of realism. I am still working on it
