Here we go,
Today, on 6K cases in one single day! My prediction remains same for 2 Lakh Cases by 8th June.
When may we see the peak? ( My View only)
Please have a look at the countries where cases are in decline. It seems cases were rising in full speed until it reached 3k to 5k per million population for most of them. Probably herd immunity level started building up after that. Though it is said that minimum 60% of total population cases required to start herd immunity building up, it varies from causative agent to agent.
If we assume, the above theory be true, 3k per million for India is around 40 lakh
To reach that level, considering the doubling time of 15 days, 2 laks in June first week, 4 L in 3rd week, 8L in July 2nd week, 16 L in July 4th week, 32L in Aug 2nd week. So we should peak out by August 3rd week.
Today, on 6K cases in one single day! My prediction remains same for 2 Lakh Cases by 8th June.
When may we see the peak? ( My View only)
Please have a look at the countries where cases are in decline. It seems cases were rising in full speed until it reached 3k to 5k per million population for most of them. Probably herd immunity level started building up after that. Though it is said that minimum 60% of total population cases required to start herd immunity building up, it varies from causative agent to agent.
If we assume, the above theory be true, 3k per million for India is around 40 lakh
To reach that level, considering the doubling time of 15 days, 2 laks in June first week, 4 L in 3rd week, 8L in July 2nd week, 16 L in July 4th week, 32L in Aug 2nd week. So we should peak out by August 3rd week.
However, As per my forecast we might touch 2 Lakh cases by 1st June itself. I posted the day-by-day estimates here:
https://www.traderji.com/community/threads/general-trading-chat.96368/page-7776#post-1417815
I agree with August 3rd week (approx) would see the peak. After that we would have another 3 months of reducing cases (gradually), but much more pain as many during the time would be in hospital, without hope. (hosptalization would take an average of 4-6 weeks)
By October end, the trauma would probably be over. Hopefully if vaccines are administered en masse to the public before that, these dates would be reduced.
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