97,028 [+1,329]
Today, on 19th May we are crossing 1 Lakh case. With lockdown eased, we may now see rise in daily cases. My prediction is 2 Lakh Cases by 8th June.
When may we see the peak? ( My View only)
Please have a look at the countries where cases are in decline. It seems cases were rising in full speed until it reached 30k to 40k per million population for most of them. Probably herd immunity level started building up after that. Though it is said that minimum 60% of total population cases required to start herd immunity building up, it varies from causative agent to agent.
If we assume, the above theory be true, 30k per million for India is around 4 crores.
To reach that level, considering the doubling time of 15 days, 2 laks in June first week, 4 L in 3rd week, 8L in July 2nd week, 16 L in July 4th week, 32L in Aug 2nd week, 64L in Aug last week, 1.2 cr in September 3rd week, 2.4 in October Second week and 4 cr by October last week.
So, peak comes in October and lots of pain left before we see a decline.
PS: The above thoughts and calculations are my personal views.
Today, on 19th May we are crossing 1 Lakh case. With lockdown eased, we may now see rise in daily cases. My prediction is 2 Lakh Cases by 8th June.
When may we see the peak? ( My View only)
Please have a look at the countries where cases are in decline. It seems cases were rising in full speed until it reached 30k to 40k per million population for most of them. Probably herd immunity level started building up after that. Though it is said that minimum 60% of total population cases required to start herd immunity building up, it varies from causative agent to agent.
If we assume, the above theory be true, 30k per million for India is around 4 crores.
To reach that level, considering the doubling time of 15 days, 2 laks in June first week, 4 L in 3rd week, 8L in July 2nd week, 16 L in July 4th week, 32L in Aug 2nd week, 64L in Aug last week, 1.2 cr in September 3rd week, 2.4 in October Second week and 4 cr by October last week.
So, peak comes in October and lots of pain left before we see a decline.
PS: The above thoughts and calculations are my personal views.
"Please have a look at the countries where cases are in decline. It seems cases were rising in full speed until it reached 30k to 40k per million population for most of them. "