Good Evening Pratap sir
Thanks a lot for all methods & afl you have shared generously with us.
This week I have put just 15 min AMA bands & observed it on 10 monthes of Nifty future..Result was as follows:-
MONTH TOTAL PROFIT TRADES LOSS TRADES BE trades PROFIT LOSS GROSS
FEB 43 16 27 O 785 240 545
MAR 33 19 14 0 755 210 545
APR 38 16 20 2 640 300 340
MAY 34 17 16 1 720 255 465
JUN 44 23 16 5 696 240 456
JUL 40 19 18 2 620 270 350
AUG 32 14 17 1 925 255 670
SEP 42 13 26 3 830 390 440
OCT 29 11 11 7 335 165 170
NOV 34 12 18 4 470 245 225
I am satisfied with results.but there are some points of my concern & confusion in which I need your suggestions
1) Probability of Profitabel trades are vary from month to month..its 30% to 57%..is it common or tradable?how to handel it?
2) Every month Profit points are always more than loss points..not a singel month of gross loss.. gross profit is always more than 200 points except OCT 2015..SO RESults are accorditn to my target of 200 points @month..But here I didnt deduct taxes,brokerage & slippage..
govt taxes & turnover charges are 150 rs for one lot nifty..which comes as 2 points..1 point brokerage..2 point average slipaage so total cost of one trade should be 5 points..
so if we do 40 trades average in a month..so our total cost be around 200 points which is a very big ..so if I reduce those 200 points from my gross profit..
345,345,140,265,256,150,470,240,-35,25 these are the Net profit points from FEB to NOV 2015..april,july,oct & nov kind of results are making me worried..especially Oct & Nov..Please suggest What I am missing?
I am using 15 min chart for taking trades (for reducing no of trades)..putting 15 min AMA..All trades are in direction of 15 min AMA..& exit is also mechanical..Though I observe your every afl..but this testing I have done only on That one afl of 15 min AMA..
Please suggest What to do now or Am I mising something? ..or what change Do need tO do to improve results?whats your opinion abouth this whole back testing?
Looking forward for your reply
thanks
t