How Long Do Good Trades Take To Play Out ? By Nial Fuller
The market is a slow, cumbersome beast. Today’s lesson is designed to prove this to you and to reinforce the need to hold trades for longer than you might be accustomed to or want to. Let the market do its ‘thing’ and give it room and time to move to your profit target.
Average True Range (ATR)
Let’s begin by looking at some solid evidence that markets move in much smaller daily and weekly pip ranges than you might think.
The ATR or Average True Range is a tool that will show you a moving average of the ‘true range’ of a market for a given period of time. Simply put, a market experiencing a high level of volatility will have a higher ATR, and a low volatility market will have a lower ATR. This is important because it gives us some baseline expectation of how much a market is likely to move over the next day or week. We can use this information to help us determine how long a trade might take to go from point A to point B and also for stop loss placement. For example: you wouldn’t want your stop loss placed within the ATR of a market, because you might get knocked out just by the normal daily fluctuations of price. Ideally, you want your stop loss placed outside the ATR of a market and beyond any nearby support or resistance levels.
The typical value is a 14 period ATR, we will use a 10 period ATR for our examples. Keep in mind, ATR is basically a measure of volatility over X period of time, it does not show direction of price, only the volatility of its movement, or the range of its movement. Our purposes of using the ATR is to show you that most o f the time markets are moving in smaller average pip ranges than you probably think, so that means you need to be more realistic in how long a trade might take to play out. That typically means holding the trade for longer than you want to or might be think you should have to.
A 10 period ATR on a daily chart will show you the Average True Range of the market over the last 10 days. Thus, it will give you some expectation of the pip range for the next trading day and even for the next trading week.
Examples of how long good trades can take to play out…
Now that you are aware that markets typically move in smaller daily and weekly pip ranges than you may have assumed before, let’s look at some real-world examples of good price action trade signals that took longer to play out than we may have liked. This should show you the need to adjust your expectations of how long a trade might take to play out
Source-
http://www.learntotradethemarket.co...gies/how-long-do-good-trades-take-to-play-out