1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Just ran the option analysis tool today for your information.. will follow your thread more closely now...

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

My apologies... i gave up following the thread mid way as most of the questions were directed at solving problems in the tool... i would request you to start 2 new threads if possible ..
1) Exclusively on options covering day and positional
2) Exclusively on your MTP tool & OTP
3) Continue the current thread to solve issues with tool

I just read through pages 175-179 and see some interesting patterns based on Volume and OI that you have uncovered. I'm not sure if i can trade these as i prefer not to stick to the terminal... so Intraday is out of question for me

A few other interesting observations on solely based on OI that ws observed
- A trend looks to be developing in the market when OI reaches >70L
** for eg if 5800 CE breaches 70L... participants are bearish and downtrend is in progress
- A change in OI > 10% indicates the particular direction feeling pressure..
** for eg if change in OI in 5600 PE changes >10%(-ve) i.e (Change in OI/OI)% then bulls are running for cover

Based on these you could also initiate corresponding sell positions.

Thanks Option.Trader for the suggestions.

I will also try to include some logic on OI > 60L (Hope 60L should be ok - Or we can make this configurable) and OI CHG > 10% (when we say 10%, I think you mean 10% of the overall OI in that strike or 10% of the Overall CHG in OI)

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

I think you are on to something here... only pitfall is , OI can change at flip of a switch intraday... so need t obe careful when trading intrading using Options table as most of the times, institutional investors use options to also hedge their positions

You are right. We look at the Options Chain more from the Instituitional Investors point of view... "MOST of the times, institutional investors use options to also hedge their positions". The MOST I assume to be 95%. Yes That is the basic assumption of my analysis. I keep repeating this to myself. When the volume in CE is more than the PE, Then I take it as a SELL and vice versa. (Even though volume in CE could also mean a BUY). When we have an automated tool I think it would be clear.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

2 things
1) Option URL is a bit tricky sometimes... there are two URLs.. one with symbol code as symbolCode=-10006 and other with symbolCode=-10003. Sometimes when you open the Option chain link in NSE there is a difference in Spot price shown at top right corner and as part of Option chain data... sometimes more than 40 points.. that is when you need to alternate the URL to fetch the correct table where both numbers are same

2) you can also look at using the FII derivative statistic available at
FII derivatives statistic
Basically comparing with previous days data could show surprising insights about what FII's have in mind as they are majority traders in derivatives

shown some past data for your reference

Have you tried the URL which I have given ?

When you say "symbolCode=-10006 and other with symbolCode=-10003", Hope you are addressing NIFTY Options.

But I hope people want to Analyze for any given Stock or Index...

Gone through the Exce link that you had given (FII derivtives table) - Not abel to make anything out of it. May be it can help for Positional traders to take big positions in Options

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Thanks Option.Trader for the suggestions.

I will also try to include some logic on OI > 60L (Hope 60L should be ok - Or we can make this configurable) and OI CHG > 10% (when we say 10%, I think you mean 10% of the overall OI in that strike or 10% of the Overall CHG in OI)

The latter...a negative 10% indicates an imminent change in short term trend when net OI is greater than 70L

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

04-Jul-13 Option Analysis for NIFTY

MAX CGH in OI at
6100 CE @ 322K
5800 PE @ 334K
Total Change in OI @ CE 497K, PE @ 635K

You can see the first time positions being made at 6100 CE. That shows this rally would minimum test 6000.

OI Max at the same level as 5600-6000 - no change in the past 7 days
CE OI @ 3.18C PE OI @ 3.85C
Weekly Trend - UP

Pivot @ 5860 - This could be the High for today. Positional pivot at 5792 - Which could be the low for the day - Already the Low 5791.6 made. So you can Go long around 5792-5798

5600-6000 Pair today at 63.55

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Have you tried the URL which I have given ?

When you say "symbolCode=-10006 and other with symbolCode=-10003", Hope you are addressing NIFTY Options.

But I hope people want to Analyze for any given Stock or Index...

Gone through the Exce link that you had given (FII derivtives table) - Not abel to make anything out of it. May be it can help for Positional traders to take big positions in Options

The symbol code is for nifty only... The other links are useful to understand the overall positioning... majority of derivative trades is done by FII's.. so you get an idea of how they are positioned... if you see the futures contracts.. u will immediately come to know they are short... also u get to know speculative positioning in Options...
the other derivative positioning table gives a fair idea of positioning of all the players in market, but as this would easily give the game away, NSE only publishes this with a 1 day delay

 

[prabhsingh]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

04-Jul-13 Option Analysis for NIFTY

MAX CGH in OI at
6100 CE @ 322K
5800 PE @ 334K
Total Change in OI @ CE 497K, PE @ 635K

You can see the first time positions being made at 6100 CE. That shows this rally would minimum test 6000.

OI Max at the same level as 5600-6000 - no change in the past 7 days
CE OI @ 3.18C PE OI @ 3.85C
Weekly Trend - UP

Pivot @ 5860 - This could be the High for today. Positional pivot at 5792 - Which could be the low for the day - Already the Low 5791.6 made. So you can Go long around 5792-5798

5600-6000 Pair today at 63.55

"You can see the first time positions being made at 6100 CE. That shows this rally would minimum test 6000"

Above could only be possible if there is maximum/equal participation from
PE side as well which currently is not happening.

 

[Option.Trader]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

04-Jul-13 Option Analysis for NIFTY

MAX CGH in OI at
6100 CE @ 322K
5800 PE @ 334K
Total Change in OI @ CE 497K, PE @ 635K

You can see the first time positions being made at 6100 CE. That shows this rally would minimum test 6000.

OI Max at the same level as 5600-6000 - no change in the past 7 days
CE OI @ 3.18C PE OI @ 3.85C
Weekly Trend - UP

Pivot @ 5860 - This could be the High for today. Positional pivot at 5792 - Which could be the low for the day - Already the Low 5791.6 made. So you can Go long around 5792-5798

5600-6000 Pair today at 63.55

So are you suggesting to sell pair 5800PE and 6100Ce for 107 for positional strategy?

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

So are you suggesting to sell pair 5800PE and 6100Ce for 107 for positional strategy?

I normally suggest to sell the pair where there is MAX OI - We had sold the pair 5600-6000 at around 95, which is now trading at 63.

Yesterday the pair 5700-6000 was avilable at 95, which is now trading at 86

We have to find another pair now - so 5800-6100 could be that pair also... Since we are near 5800 it would be little bit more risky. It would be better to sell 50% now anotehr 50% when the market is above 5800 and cleared 5800 and the UP Trend is confirmed