Tuna's Crude Recordbook
- Thread starter Tuna
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Ok guys, let me bring my 'Mr Know All' hat (I know I might sound like a pro here, at end of day I am still a novice in this game). Long post, read with patience.
HFT = High Frequency Trading, all of us, who are not new to this game know this demon. These are the algos (mostly) and sometime human trader with truckloads of cash. They (these) can alter the direction of market in just fraction of seconds. In commodity market these are very common, but you come across them everywhere. I generally have the most frequent encounters with these SoBs while trading in crude. If you want to know more about HFT, Google it.
Now, what triggers them:
These jokers will trigger the HFT right in this kind of moments - The effect is like avalanche. It will start taking all the SLs/ TSLs which will add to the high liquidity already injected by them and will act like adding more fuel to fire. And we will see the whole house falling like house of cards.
Add to this: some momentum traders who will inject fresh money (mostly stop orders) in direction of HFT thinking of the trade reverse at DH (These people are our target)
I guess this is enough for HFT.
Now why I took this trend. Was it risky? Yes. Was it a Blind Gamble? No.
If you see my post one after one today, I posted that I was expecting HFT at some point, just before it triggered.
That’s the reason I asked to book partial profit and I did same.
I played this setup time and again and with surgical precision, many times and it is now kind of embedded in my decision making.
Now to the crux:
Point 1:
What is the primary trend = Absolutely Bearish on daily chart
Point 2:
The market showed rangebound attribute throughout the day - hitting DH going down, hitting DL going up. But what was the direction the range expansion was happening ? Right on the down side. If we start exploring the chart (prefer 3 min TF), you will since day open we kept of making lower DLs and bouncing back. So range expansion was happing in this direction.
The price action setup:
Whenever you encounter a HFT which goes against the directional bias shown by 1 & 2 and you see the HFT is just losing momentum nearing the current DH zone (price rejection showing long wicks in the Candles, first one at 20:03 pm second one at 20:09 pm), you can assume that no fresh money is being injected right now, and it is the fag end TSLs/ Stop orders which are giving the last minute oxygen to it => you can enter against it.
Mind it, the trigger of entry, based on this setup (point 1 & 2) have to be done in lighting speed to get the best out of these idiots. It may feel like revenge trading, but it is not. I probably tried these dozens of times and this repeats again and again.
You have to keep your position size for this pre-planned as you cannot risk too much against these big boys.
Now as the HFT fails, smart money will pull out the cash swiftly, mostly in profit. The trapped one will be the momentum / Breakout/ SAR traders - they are human, they cannot act that fast as algo - the normal feeling will be , oh its ok, lets hold it is minor pullback (But it is not).
You already chopped the head of the HFT, now just sit tight and trail. As fresh liquidity disappears, the market will drift lower and lower (most of the time to the last DL). These trapped traders will start bailing them out in between realizing the mistake - AND you can take their cash.
Even being small retail trader, you just took it against the big brothers and made big win !!
Risky Game, indeed. But the reward outclass the risk all the time.
So key take away today:
1. Keep booking part profit at interval of 25, 50 odd points, if you see a possibility of a HFT
2. Always keep a TSL. I know many pro trading with a statements (entered , no SL) - works most of the time. But one HFT and you are blown out.
3. In case of a HFT Contra setup is found, don’t hesitate to go for it. Keep position size small and look for big range (at least 40/50 sometime even 100 points). You can paper trade this till your instinct is fine tuned to trigger real trade on this setup.
4. Repetitive HFT in same direction after pullback is very rare. But nothing is impossible in market. So keep a TSL even for this setup (like I did).
That’s all Bros. Hope this help. Questions? if Any?
Else Good Night, Nice weekend. Happy Drilling !!
HFT = High Frequency Trading, all of us, who are not new to this game know this demon. These are the algos (mostly) and sometime human trader with truckloads of cash. They (these) can alter the direction of market in just fraction of seconds. In commodity market these are very common, but you come across them everywhere. I generally have the most frequent encounters with these SoBs while trading in crude. If you want to know more about HFT, Google it.
Now, what triggers them:
- It could be some breaking news against short term trend in market, regardless of the trend in primary degree
- Sudden surge / fall in Global Index (Read Dow Jones, that is the one matter during our night time) against the existing Bias
- Extremely oversold / overbought market (currently we are oversold on Day basis) where current market players are still exploring extreme price and market is not showing any FA (failed Auction) apparently- means you are not finding any candle in lower timeframe with a long wick showing
Rejection.
- This can happen any time, but you will witness them more on the markets which are about to / or already entered sideway trading zone (I was telling this since last 2 days, that though we are selling well, we are in sideway zone)
These jokers will trigger the HFT right in this kind of moments - The effect is like avalanche. It will start taking all the SLs/ TSLs which will add to the high liquidity already injected by them and will act like adding more fuel to fire. And we will see the whole house falling like house of cards.
Add to this: some momentum traders who will inject fresh money (mostly stop orders) in direction of HFT thinking of the trade reverse at DH (These people are our target)
I guess this is enough for HFT.
Now why I took this trend. Was it risky? Yes. Was it a Blind Gamble? No.
If you see my post one after one today, I posted that I was expecting HFT at some point, just before it triggered.
That’s the reason I asked to book partial profit and I did same.
I played this setup time and again and with surgical precision, many times and it is now kind of embedded in my decision making.
Now to the crux:
Point 1:
What is the primary trend = Absolutely Bearish on daily chart
Point 2:
The market showed rangebound attribute throughout the day - hitting DH going down, hitting DL going up. But what was the direction the range expansion was happening ? Right on the down side. If we start exploring the chart (prefer 3 min TF), you will since day open we kept of making lower DLs and bouncing back. So range expansion was happing in this direction.
The price action setup:
Whenever you encounter a HFT which goes against the directional bias shown by 1 & 2 and you see the HFT is just losing momentum nearing the current DH zone (price rejection showing long wicks in the Candles, first one at 20:03 pm second one at 20:09 pm), you can assume that no fresh money is being injected right now, and it is the fag end TSLs/ Stop orders which are giving the last minute oxygen to it => you can enter against it.
Mind it, the trigger of entry, based on this setup (point 1 & 2) have to be done in lighting speed to get the best out of these idiots. It may feel like revenge trading, but it is not. I probably tried these dozens of times and this repeats again and again.
You have to keep your position size for this pre-planned as you cannot risk too much against these big boys.
Now as the HFT fails, smart money will pull out the cash swiftly, mostly in profit. The trapped one will be the momentum / Breakout/ SAR traders - they are human, they cannot act that fast as algo - the normal feeling will be , oh its ok, lets hold it is minor pullback (But it is not).
You already chopped the head of the HFT, now just sit tight and trail. As fresh liquidity disappears, the market will drift lower and lower (most of the time to the last DL). These trapped traders will start bailing them out in between realizing the mistake - AND you can take their cash.
Even being small retail trader, you just took it against the big brothers and made big win !!
Risky Game, indeed. But the reward outclass the risk all the time.
So key take away today:
1. Keep booking part profit at interval of 25, 50 odd points, if you see a possibility of a HFT
2. Always keep a TSL. I know many pro trading with a statements (entered , no SL) - works most of the time. But one HFT and you are blown out.
3. In case of a HFT Contra setup is found, don’t hesitate to go for it. Keep position size small and look for big range (at least 40/50 sometime even 100 points). You can paper trade this till your instinct is fine tuned to trigger real trade on this setup.
4. Repetitive HFT in same direction after pullback is very rare. But nothing is impossible in market. So keep a TSL even for this setup (like I did).
That’s all Bros. Hope this help. Questions? if Any?
Else Good Night, Nice weekend. Happy Drilling !!
Last edited:
Read the HFT Set up in my eariler post. You are countering the guys who runs the hedgefunds. 30/40 points spike is kid's play for them. You need to make sure your SL is not lost in another stupid spike. If you keep it too tight, chances of survival is less.
Enter with less position size (I generally use 50% of my normal size, making too less will reduce profit margin) + Keep SL Deep (Mostly 30 points above DH or Below DL + Bring the TSL to cost once you see the spike is dying down and HFT is a failed one.
(I will provide the details of number 30 in my Trading System explaination when I do it - you can note it down, it will appear in most of trades) - This is the fundamental unit of measure of my system.
Yes, it changes based on counter I am trading. For crude for last 6 months it is 30 - let just remember this is 'Tuna's Constant For Crude'.
Enter with less position size (I generally use 50% of my normal size, making too less will reduce profit margin) + Keep SL Deep (Mostly 30 points above DH or Below DL + Bring the TSL to cost once you see the spike is dying down and HFT is a failed one.
(I will provide the details of number 30 in my Trading System explaination when I do it - you can note it down, it will appear in most of trades) - This is the fundamental unit of measure of my system.
Yes, it changes based on counter I am trading. For crude for last 6 months it is 30 - let just remember this is 'Tuna's Constant For Crude'.
Nicely explained... Hats off Boss.... Will observe more as suggested by you.
Just one question though for understanding this system ... How do you decide entry point ? I mean, 8.03 / 8.09 / 8.15 / 8.18 bars are with long wicks.. Why 8.09 bar for entry and not 8.15 ? Do you also check other parameters like volumes ( like 8.09 bar has lesser volume than 8.03 bar ) but this will be clear only after closing of the bar. and by then close of 8.09 bar is 2983, almost 12 points lesser than your entry point.
Rgds,
kuldeep
Just one question though for understanding this system ... How do you decide entry point ? I mean, 8.03 / 8.09 / 8.15 / 8.18 bars are with long wicks.. Why 8.09 bar for entry and not 8.15 ? Do you also check other parameters like volumes ( like 8.09 bar has lesser volume than 8.03 bar ) but this will be clear only after closing of the bar. and by then close of 8.09 bar is 2983, almost 12 points lesser than your entry point.
Rgds,
kuldeep
Nice someone is still awake 
Appreciate that you had it in you to go through this long post, most will give it a pass.
Your question is valid. But just look left - what was the last DH? 2998.41 approx.
The preferrable candle is the one which actually comes within range of ATR (14), on 3 mins TF. Always consider the ATR value before the first impulse candle of the HFT. Here corresponding ATR for the 19:57 Candle close (3 mins TF) - was around 5.4.
The perfect candle is the one which comes within this range (or better in even breaches the DH by some point) and start pulling back. Like our case.
You may prefer to let the candle close properly - I don't, well may be because I am bit aggressive here.
If you think I do this ATR calculation and all - well no, I just see the ticks visually and go for it, but this is the range I look for entry. Speed of decision making is the winning factor here for this setup. You are up against ALGO. But it comes with practice.
Hope it clarifies.
Appreciate that you had it in you to go through this long post, most will give it a pass.Your question is valid. But just look left - what was the last DH? 2998.41 approx.
The preferrable candle is the one which actually comes within range of ATR (14), on 3 mins TF. Always consider the ATR value before the first impulse candle of the HFT. Here corresponding ATR for the 19:57 Candle close (3 mins TF) - was around 5.4.
The perfect candle is the one which comes within this range (or better in even breaches the DH by some point) and start pulling back. Like our case.
You may prefer to let the candle close properly - I don't
, well may be because I am bit aggressive here.If you think I do this ATR calculation and all - well no, I just see the ticks visually and go for it, but this is the range I look for entry. Speed of decision making is the winning factor here for this setup. You are up against ALGO. But it comes with practice.
Hope it clarifies.
Nice someone is still awake Appreciate that you had it in you to go through this long post, most will give it a pass.
Your question is valid. But just look left - what was the last DH? 2998.41 approx.
The preferrable candle is the one which actually comes within range of ATR (14), on 3 mins TF. Always consider the ATR value before the first impulse candle of the HFT. Here corresponding ATR for the 19:57 Candle close (3 mins TF) - was around 5.4.
The perfect candle is the one which comes within this range (or better in even breaches the DH by some point) and start pulling back. Like our case.
You may prefer to let the candle close properly - I don't, well may be because I am bit aggressive here.
If you think I do this ATR calculation and all - well no, I just see the ticks visually and go for it, but this is the range I look for entry. Speed of decision making is the winning factor here for this setup. You are up against ALGO. But it comes with practice.
Hope it clarifies.
Appreciate that you had it in you to go through this long post, most will give it a pass.Your question is valid. But just look left - what was the last DH? 2998.41 approx.
The preferrable candle is the one which actually comes within range of ATR (14), on 3 mins TF. Always consider the ATR value before the first impulse candle of the HFT. Here corresponding ATR for the 19:57 Candle close (3 mins TF) - was around 5.4.
The perfect candle is the one which comes within this range (or better in even breaches the DH by some point) and start pulling back. Like our case.
You may prefer to let the candle close properly - I don't
, well may be because I am bit aggressive here.If you think I do this ATR calculation and all - well no, I just see the ticks visually and go for it, but this is the range I look for entry. Speed of decision making is the winning factor here for this setup. You are up against ALGO. But it comes with practice.
Hope it clarifies.
Will watch for few days before actually trading this.. Now am more eager to understand your day trading system... will wait for the same...Thanx n Rgds, have a nice weekend..
Hi Guys,
Good Afternoon. Crude looks Bullish since morning. Difficult day today, expect atleast 1-2 HFTs on both side post 3-30 p.m IST. Range expansion on upside is capped as of now around 3000.
My levels 2995 - 3035 // Sellers Zone - If BO happens above this well stay away from shorts.
Zone 2940 - 2964// Buyers Zone - Dont try BO below this, look for BOF and go with the buyers. The last HFT will be mostly from here if price comes to this level. Instead of fading that, try to ride that with a Stop order (10 odd point above this zone).
Money will be made on both side, but for a change, I will look for buying opportunity unless market changes daramtically in the evening.
Happy Drilling.
Good Afternoon. Crude looks Bullish since morning. Difficult day today, expect atleast 1-2 HFTs on both side post 3-30 p.m IST. Range expansion on upside is capped as of now around 3000.
My levels 2995 - 3035 // Sellers Zone - If BO happens above this well stay away from shorts.
Zone 2940 - 2964// Buyers Zone - Dont try BO below this, look for BOF and go with the buyers. The last HFT will be mostly from here if price comes to this level. Instead of fading that, try to ride that with a Stop order (10 odd point above this zone).
Money will be made on both side, but for a change, I will look for buying opportunity unless market changes daramtically in the evening.
Happy Drilling.
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