Mehool, I don't know what happened, but I responded to this shortly after your original post, but mine did not post.
Comments, once again below.
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Comments, once again below.
Hi 4x,
Thanks for taking time and explaining Kijun to me. To be honest, I didnt follow everything you mentioned in your explanation about this indicator but what I understood is to keep Kijun value 3 candles back from its current reading. I will certainly explore that.
Sounds good! Let me know how it goes for you.
I might be wrong in assuming that the strategy you have mentioned is on manual trading. If I want to exit the trade manually, I can certainly follow the instructions you have mentioned. But I am looking for something where EA can handle this. For EA to set stops 3 candles back from its current reading is easy. But I discovered another big problem today and due to which I might not be able to use trailing stops based on Kijun or MA. Let me explain.
For E.g, when EA opens a long position, it will have its predifined stops. I would want the trail to start only when I am in profit. So when Kijun value crosses my entry point, this is when the trail starts locking as many pips as kijun moves ahead. When price reverses and hits Kijun value (or 3 candles back it's current value), I would want trade to close. This is ideal scenario where Kijun value was well below my entry point.
Keep in mind, though, nothing about trading is ideal. If trading was full of ideal circumstances, then Traderji would not be in business, because none of us would need to be here.
Now consider another example where Kijun value is well above your entry position. In this case, as your trailing value is well above your entry price, trailing will start when price crosses Kijun value. Immediately trail will start and with small retracement, there are chances of trade getting closed unless price has crossed Kijun with a distance which might be very rare.
This scenario is too ideal, but nevertheless, we did have a typical ichimoku ideal setup. Notice where I drew the arrow. That is pointing to where the entry would have been. It is not just the kijun the candle has to cross over, but the tenken also. What you now have is an additional layer of R the candle has to break through. This is the beginning of the trend, and the fall for the TK combo is not fully developed yet. Notice as the kijun progress to the west that it lowers instead of going higher. This is where you want to use the peak of the tenken for your stop. So, the entry would have been 1.2922 for the short and the stop would have been 1.3003. 3 candles later, you would have lowered it to the point of the kijun 3 candles back (Which would be the then current value.) Afterward, at the end of each candle just keep lowering the stop in accordance with the kijun as already described.
One way to tackle is to set a criteria of minimum number of pips into profit before the trail triggers and that's way too complex.
I disagree, and let me explain why.
A set number of pips never works for a stop. This is because a stop needs to be placed behind a defined point of support or resistance. Anything before that defined point is fair game for price action to move, and thus, take your trade out. It will start discouraging you real quick when you have been in the habit of taking mall 3-10 pip winning trades, when if the stops were set correctly, you may have gone in the negative for awhile, but in the end, you would have had a 30-100 pips winning trade. All you need to do is knock down a few of them per week and watch for confidence grow.
So finally, I have narrowed down to trailing stops using PSAR. I know, I might not be taking full advantage of my trade using PSAR but I guess thats the best when you are having a fully automated trade which you dont even need to monitor. Another option is to set fix pips or combination of fixed and PSAR.
I hope you have at least manually demo traded your strategy. Be sure and let us know how things turn out. BTW, if it does not work out, let us know that too. We're just friends helping friends around here.
Most likely I will have a combination of fixed pips followed by PSAR. With backtesting, I will know my average profit using PSAR. Will add more pips to that average value and ask the EA to close if it hits that value. If not then let PSAR close the trade.
You probably can tell I have low confidence in EA's. This is another reason I'm anxious to hear how this works out for you.
I liked your comment and also agree that markets are more volatile from 11:30 AM to 10:30 PM and believe me just today, I have asked my developer to put time filter in my EA. So that EA opens trades just in that window.
I never said it is volatile from 11:30--10:30. I said it move faster or the volume is greater which adds greater octane to price movement. There is a difference between price moving in a stated direction quickly, and volatility.
Even I agree with you that many people sell ebooks, seminar's, sell EA's and other services but I dont understand, why dont they focus on trading as they can earn in multiples in what they are doing. I would never do that. The best what I would do is open a PAM account and be a account manager. So what you earn, your friends and collegues also earn and you make 50% earnings on each of these accounts linked to you and they get 50% doing nothing. I would love to do that in future.
There is no need to trade a PAMM. Why trade for others? From experience, it is a while different world. I have had much peace of mind just sitting behind my own platform trading for just me. There's much added pressure in trading for others. Plus, you keep systematically growing your account, and with it alone, you can build yourself a dream.
Youtube is indeed a great learning mode. I learnt about Kijun today. All my forex learnings over 2 years are from youtube only. Its easy to catch using videos rather than reading texts. Also as you rightly said, people who sell trailing MA's EA show perfect trend which is very rare. All the videos I have seen on youtube on trailing stops have perfect trends. Postive part was I got the idea and using that to build my own EA.
That's why your EA may not work. It is going to get you in a lot of times when the market is ranging. It will get you in late in a trend.
In my example I also showed you an ideal entry at the beginning of a trend. FYI, that is where I entered an actual trade. I had to show that to you to simply show you how to use he tenken and kijun as a combination. I did not want to get into how to handle what was going on once the market went sideways. We can even talk later how to trade a sideways market, how to enter and exit, and how to have a cursory idea when it will go sideways.
I'll have you feeling like you are bullet-proof after awhile Ahh, what do I know. I had 35 daytrades in the last 4 weeks and 5 of them were losers. Terrible! LOL.
Now, let's get to YouTube. When I'm done, either you will love me for shooting straight with you, or hate me for the same reason.
YouTube is fine, but you still have to know how to spot a fraud, and even the language of a fraud. There are some good teachers on YouTube.
The good videos are the ones where you have to concentrate on learning and even take notes to keep up. They are the ones the presenter just gets to the point without any fluff or cliches or stereotypes.
Let me give some examples of frauds. What about the cliche KISS. It stands for keep it simple stupid (I hate cliches.). The guy gets in there and discusses his concept but instead calls it keep it simple for success. It's a 14-min video that starts off with at least 2 minutes of fluff.
Later he calls the tenken and kijun MA's. They are not MA's...period! I won't go into now. Then, he ostracizes the kijun. I just proved to you how you need the tenken and kijun.
He says that is not his only method of entry and exit. Now the question should be, "Why not?"
That is one example, but there are a few more frauds on YouTube. They are not hard to spot. Just be aware of them.
BTW, it is not a vendetta I have. The guy with the KISS concept, I have indirectly challenged either privately on e-mail, or in an open forum just like this one to discuss it with me
Thanks again for your detailed explanation on Kijun and I would surely try using in my manual trades for exiting.
You're welcome, but remember, in closing I want to say that I pointed out the kijun just to show how to use it for setting stops. There are 5 parts to the ichimoku. When used effectively, I promise, it yields some outstanding trades.
Talk to you soon..
I always look forward to it.
Mehool.
Thanks for taking time and explaining Kijun to me. To be honest, I didnt follow everything you mentioned in your explanation about this indicator but what I understood is to keep Kijun value 3 candles back from its current reading. I will certainly explore that.
Sounds good! Let me know how it goes for you.
I might be wrong in assuming that the strategy you have mentioned is on manual trading. If I want to exit the trade manually, I can certainly follow the instructions you have mentioned. But I am looking for something where EA can handle this. For EA to set stops 3 candles back from its current reading is easy. But I discovered another big problem today and due to which I might not be able to use trailing stops based on Kijun or MA. Let me explain.
For E.g, when EA opens a long position, it will have its predifined stops. I would want the trail to start only when I am in profit. So when Kijun value crosses my entry point, this is when the trail starts locking as many pips as kijun moves ahead. When price reverses and hits Kijun value (or 3 candles back it's current value), I would want trade to close. This is ideal scenario where Kijun value was well below my entry point.
Keep in mind, though, nothing about trading is ideal. If trading was full of ideal circumstances, then Traderji would not be in business, because none of us would need to be here.
Now consider another example where Kijun value is well above your entry position. In this case, as your trailing value is well above your entry price, trailing will start when price crosses Kijun value. Immediately trail will start and with small retracement, there are chances of trade getting closed unless price has crossed Kijun with a distance which might be very rare.
This scenario is too ideal, but nevertheless, we did have a typical ichimoku ideal setup. Notice where I drew the arrow. That is pointing to where the entry would have been. It is not just the kijun the candle has to cross over, but the tenken also. What you now have is an additional layer of R the candle has to break through. This is the beginning of the trend, and the fall for the TK combo is not fully developed yet. Notice as the kijun progress to the west that it lowers instead of going higher. This is where you want to use the peak of the tenken for your stop. So, the entry would have been 1.2922 for the short and the stop would have been 1.3003. 3 candles later, you would have lowered it to the point of the kijun 3 candles back (Which would be the then current value.) Afterward, at the end of each candle just keep lowering the stop in accordance with the kijun as already described.
One way to tackle is to set a criteria of minimum number of pips into profit before the trail triggers and that's way too complex.
I disagree, and let me explain why.
A set number of pips never works for a stop. This is because a stop needs to be placed behind a defined point of support or resistance. Anything before that defined point is fair game for price action to move, and thus, take your trade out. It will start discouraging you real quick when you have been in the habit of taking mall 3-10 pip winning trades, when if the stops were set correctly, you may have gone in the negative for awhile, but in the end, you would have had a 30-100 pips winning trade. All you need to do is knock down a few of them per week and watch for confidence grow.
So finally, I have narrowed down to trailing stops using PSAR. I know, I might not be taking full advantage of my trade using PSAR but I guess thats the best when you are having a fully automated trade which you dont even need to monitor. Another option is to set fix pips or combination of fixed and PSAR.
I hope you have at least manually demo traded your strategy. Be sure and let us know how things turn out. BTW, if it does not work out, let us know that too. We're just friends helping friends around here.
Most likely I will have a combination of fixed pips followed by PSAR. With backtesting, I will know my average profit using PSAR. Will add more pips to that average value and ask the EA to close if it hits that value. If not then let PSAR close the trade.
You probably can tell I have low confidence in EA's. This is another reason I'm anxious to hear how this works out for you.
I liked your comment and also agree that markets are more volatile from 11:30 AM to 10:30 PM and believe me just today, I have asked my developer to put time filter in my EA. So that EA opens trades just in that window.
I never said it is volatile from 11:30--10:30. I said it move faster or the volume is greater which adds greater octane to price movement. There is a difference between price moving in a stated direction quickly, and volatility.
Even I agree with you that many people sell ebooks, seminar's, sell EA's and other services but I dont understand, why dont they focus on trading as they can earn in multiples in what they are doing. I would never do that. The best what I would do is open a PAM account and be a account manager. So what you earn, your friends and collegues also earn and you make 50% earnings on each of these accounts linked to you and they get 50% doing nothing. I would love to do that in future.
There is no need to trade a PAMM. Why trade for others? From experience, it is a while different world. I have had much peace of mind just sitting behind my own platform trading for just me. There's much added pressure in trading for others. Plus, you keep systematically growing your account, and with it alone, you can build yourself a dream.
Youtube is indeed a great learning mode. I learnt about Kijun today. All my forex learnings over 2 years are from youtube only. Its easy to catch using videos rather than reading texts. Also as you rightly said, people who sell trailing MA's EA show perfect trend which is very rare. All the videos I have seen on youtube on trailing stops have perfect trends. Postive part was I got the idea and using that to build my own EA.
That's why your EA may not work. It is going to get you in a lot of times when the market is ranging. It will get you in late in a trend.
In my example I also showed you an ideal entry at the beginning of a trend. FYI, that is where I entered an actual trade. I had to show that to you to simply show you how to use he tenken and kijun as a combination. I did not want to get into how to handle what was going on once the market went sideways. We can even talk later how to trade a sideways market, how to enter and exit, and how to have a cursory idea when it will go sideways.
I'll have you feeling like you are bullet-proof after awhile Ahh, what do I know. I had 35 daytrades in the last 4 weeks and 5 of them were losers. Terrible! LOL.
Now, let's get to YouTube. When I'm done, either you will love me for shooting straight with you, or hate me for the same reason.
YouTube is fine, but you still have to know how to spot a fraud, and even the language of a fraud. There are some good teachers on YouTube.
The good videos are the ones where you have to concentrate on learning and even take notes to keep up. They are the ones the presenter just gets to the point without any fluff or cliches or stereotypes.
Let me give some examples of frauds. What about the cliche KISS. It stands for keep it simple stupid (I hate cliches.). The guy gets in there and discusses his concept but instead calls it keep it simple for success. It's a 14-min video that starts off with at least 2 minutes of fluff.
Later he calls the tenken and kijun MA's. They are not MA's...period! I won't go into now. Then, he ostracizes the kijun. I just proved to you how you need the tenken and kijun.
He says that is not his only method of entry and exit. Now the question should be, "Why not?"
That is one example, but there are a few more frauds on YouTube. They are not hard to spot. Just be aware of them.
BTW, it is not a vendetta I have. The guy with the KISS concept, I have indirectly challenged either privately on e-mail, or in an open forum just like this one to discuss it with me
Thanks again for your detailed explanation on Kijun and I would surely try using in my manual trades for exiting.
You're welcome, but remember, in closing I want to say that I pointed out the kijun just to show how to use it for setting stops. There are 5 parts to the ichimoku. When used effectively, I promise, it yields some outstanding trades.
Talk to you soon..
I always look forward to it.
Mehool.
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