Personally I feel we are entering difficult times in near term. Whether one has to blame it on Inflation, Policies, Corruption etc is anyone's guess. But, there is no hiding from the fact that tough times could well be ahead. My opinion is not based on some prophecy but based on the fact that interior structure of various Indices (I.T., Bankex, Infra, Realty, Auto) is worsening by the day. Defensive sectors are moving with some vigor and this makes me more cautious.
Technicals of the market are fine. But I wish markets were simply dominated by Technicals. At this stage, one has to give proper weight to what is being considered. Technicals in my opinion take a back seat here. The more important aspect to be considered here are the Macro of the Economy. Sooner than later, crude, inflation will start to hamper India's growth and that impact is going to start reflecting somewhere in coming quarters. The price however, will begin discounting this pretty soon. I personally feel that time has come.
To argue with markets would be foolhardy and I would never want to get in that situation. Hence, I am currently working with some very basic levels. Below 5750 I am short on the markets and above that level I will reverse and be long. I am not recommending anyone anything, hence please use your own analytical tools to draw assumptions/conclusions about what I have written. I am an eternal Bull and when I write about markets having a probabilistic move on the down side, it pains a bit to do so. But at times reality cannot be ignored.
In the short term I feel 5550 is on the cards and below that 5400 cannot be ruled out. When and if we reach there, we will review again. If we do not reach those levels and market begins to move up, I'll simply accept my opinion as being wrong and will reverse my positions above the 5750 levels.
Tc