Trading Strategies Using Technical Analysis

Which date should the meet be held?

  • February 27th 2011

    Votes: 19 59.4%
  • March 6th 2011

    Votes: 8 25.0%
  • March 13th 2011

    Votes: 5 15.6%

  • Total voters
    32
  • Poll closed .

SwingKing

Well-Known Member
Hi Raunak,
Initially I was long in YESBANK , but because of yesterdays fall and other news of Deposit rate hike I closed my long position.
Currently I am Short in YESBANK from 307 Level. As it is trading below its 15 days average now , I am expecting it to correct further.
Shall I sqareoff my Short and book my profits now or Keep my shorts intact ?

Your valuable suggestion is much needed

Regards,
Deep
Deep,

I am not trading Yes bank at the moment. And hence cannot comment on what it will do in near future.

Tc
 

SwingKing

Well-Known Member

DanPickUp

Well-Known Member
Dear GauharJK,

I have met only personally in my life 1 person who is a discretionary trader.
Couldn't interact him much bcoz he was very much a stranger to me.

He is pursuing his PHD.
He studied the markets 6 years with out trading.
Started with a capital of 8 lakhs lost 5.3 lakhs in 6 months in day trading.
Trust me with a trading capital of 2.7 lakhs he made 2.4 crores in 8 months in day trading his positional stocks :) using broker's leverage.

He said I realised I was just doing in the opposite direction.When I changed myself profits started flowing in.
Keeps track of few stocks.
Daily read the fundamentals.
When asked he said I don't know but the scripts just tell me if they are going to move up or not.He is absolutely in sync with the markets.

When SAIL was trading around 228 he said it is going to touch 196 levels next month.Till then I will sell on a daily basis and cover it at the end of the day.

Daily does his home work based on delivery volume and other stuffs which he didn't reveal.

It happened as he predicted.
He is a contrarian trader with strong knowledge of economy and fundamentals.

Like Raunak Bhai and Dan who stresses to develop the intuition or gut - these people are 1 in a million.

For us to start with we need a system and strict rules and the most important thing is to preserve our capital till we learn trading.

Please try to differentiate between discretion and false hope.
Please remember to discard ego in due process.
I am finding it difficult.

So as you said it is better to follow a system to start with.
It takes time to develop gut and fundamentals and economy.

Best Regards,
JK
Dear JK

Thanks for the million trader. But honestly spoken, I am by far not an intuition or gut trader. I may miss understood what you want to say with that.

In my home market ( Chicago Mercantile Exchange in Chicago ), I am a very analytical trader, witch calculates his risk first before entering any trade. As it is the most advanced exchange in the word for derivatives, my components are some of the best which exist. So being careful is just a protection to survive in the market as the market knows no mercy for any of my mistakes.

Even choosing the options has nothing to do with guts and intuition. It is pure analyzes of volatility, price structures of the different options, most sold and bought options, afraid range of the buyers and sellers and so on.

Next is the chart analyzes, which is a search for entry's for short term trades and a give idea about some ranges for long term trades.

Next is the decision about which strategy will be used to implement.

Before I then enter any trade, the first exit target on the win and loss side is pointed out on the chart with help of the option analyze picture. At the moment I am filled, stop loss orders are placed. From now on I have a strict money management, which is defined for position sizing and risk management.

This has, frankly spoken, nothing to do with gut and intuition. It has more to do with years of learning and try and error.

Take care my friend

DanPickUp
 
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jagankris

Well-Known Member

jagankris

Well-Known Member
Guys,

Don't get fooled by what is happening on the screen right now. Many proponents of Bear markets are creating lot of noise. That will be rested soon.

Be patient and keep your longs (if any) intact.

Tc
Dear Raunak Bhai,

FII data says markets are turning bearish for short term :( :(: :(

For the past three days their inflow has gradually slowed down.
Consistently they are short in the stock futures for 3 days.

Historically markets have been bearish most of the years in January.
FII's are heavy buyers of 6200 puts day before yesterday.(My assumption as puts OI increased heavily while calls didn't).

Since the reach of 6334 I haven't seen FII's investing in Index heavily/stock futures.Technically i don't know how to analyze accumulation/distribution.
But FII data tells they are not actively investing at these rates.

Index short - 1641.80 cr
Options - Should be 6200 and 6100 calls - 1652 CR as addition of puts in significant today.
Stock futures - 494.69 cr
Equity - -240.3cr.

Brokerage house views are not that positive.

Some say Indian valuations are on the higher side compared to peers.Nikkei for instance.

Like some people say probably markets may move upto 5900 (India infoline).
Nifty to touch 6800 :)(Target courtesy Guppy Trader :D).

Though Hindalco witnessed bullishness, observed heavy hedging of TATASTEEL at 685.May be short build up on a closing basis.

I will be surprised if markets move against FII's being short in the index and stocks.

BIT worried.I generally hate bearish market :(.

Best Regards,
JK
 
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jagankris

Well-Known Member
I always thought it is writing data ...So if OI in PUT increasing that mean its bullish sentiment...
Raunak please correct me if I am wrong..
Rajeabc,

Few points to add before we here Raunak Bhai's comments.

FII's were net buyers in Nifty and equity till yesterday.
Putt Calls OI addition is a bit tricky as it could be used as a contrarian indicator too.
But the clue is they will not initiate their their positions with out hedging.
For ex. FII's Index Future buyers - Call OI addition but no significant PUT OI ddition then they are option writers.

But even after OI addtion of put if markets comes down then it shows that Smart money are the put buyers :(
Also the call and put premium of 6200 was ridiculously low - less than 180 points.
Even a straddle would be profitable assuming the Nifty moving 400 points monthly average any one direction.

Request Dan also to add his valuable comments regarding interpreting PCR and OI addition of options.

Best Regards,
JK
 
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