Trading Nifty with Camarilla Pivots...!

linkon7

Well-Known Member
I'll reproduce a writeup i copy pasted long time back in my log :


The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) was designed to identify cyclical turns in commodities. The assumption behind the indicator is that commodities (or stocks or bonds) move in cycles, with highs and lows coming at periodic intervals. Lambert recommended using 1/3 of a complete cycle (low to low or high to high) as a time frame for the CCI. (Note: Determination of the cycle's length is independent of the CCI.) If the cycle runs 60 days (a low about every 60 days), then a 20-day CCI would be recommended. For the purpose of this example, a 20-day CCI is used.

There are 4 steps involved in the calculation of the CCI:

1. Calculate the last period's Typical Price (TP) = (H+L+C)/3 where H = high, L = low, and C = close.
2. Calculate the 20-period Simple Moving Average of the Typical Price (SMATP).
3. Calculate the Mean Deviation. First, calculate the absolute value of the difference between the last period's SMATP and the typical price for each of the past 20 periods. Add all of these absolute values together and divide by 20 to find the Mean Deviation.
4. The final step is to apply the Typical Price (TP), the Simple Moving Average of the Typical Price (SMATP), the Mean Deviation and a Constant (.015) to the following formula:

CCI = ( Typical Price - SMATP ) / ( .015 X Mean Deviation )

For scaling purposes, Lambert set the constant at .015 to ensure that approximately 70 to 80 percent of CCI values would fall between -100 and +100. The CCI fluctuates above and below zero. The percentage of CCI values that fall between +100 and -100 will depend on the number of periods used. A shorter CCI will be more volatile with a smaller percentage of values between +100 and -100. Conversely, the more periods used to calculate the CCI, the higher the percentage of values between +100 and -100.

Lambert's trading guidelines for the CCI focused on movements above +100 and below -100 to generate buy and sell signals. Because about 70 to 80 percent of the CCI values are between +100 and -100, a buy or sell signal will be in force only 20 to 30 percent of the time. When the CCI moves above +100, a security is considered to be entering into a strong uptrend and a buy signal is given. The position should be closed when the CCI moves back below +100. When the CCI moves below -100, the security is considered to be in a strong downtrend and a sell signal is given. The position should be closed when the CCI moves back above -100.

Since Lambert's original guidelines, traders have also found the CCI valuable for identifying reversals. The CCI is a versatile indicator capable of producing a wide array of buy and sell signals.

* CCI can be used to identify overbought and oversold levels. A security would be deemed oversold when the CCI dips below -100 and overbought when it exceeds +100. From oversold levels, a buy signal might be given when the CCI moves back above -100. From overbought levels, a sell signal might be given when the CCI moved back below +100.

* As with most oscillators, divergences can also be applied to increase the robustness of signals. A positive divergence below -100 would increase the robustness of a signal based on a move back above -100. A negative divergence above +100 would increase the robustness of a signal based on a move back below +100.

* Trend line breaks can be used to generate signals. Trend lines can be drawn connecting the peaks and troughs. From oversold levels, an advance above -100 and trend line breakout could be considered bullish. From overbought levels, a decline below +100 and a trend line break could be considered bearish.

Traders and investors use the CCI to help identify price reversals, price extremes and trend strength. As with most indicators, the CCI should be used in conjunction with other aspects of technical analysis. CCI fits into the momentum category of oscillators. In addition to momentum, volume indicators and the price chart may also influence a technical assessment.
 

veekay304

Well-Known Member
Guys, this is excellent work.

Coming back to this thread. The reason to select cams is because its forward looking. It tells us with a fair bit of accuracy where the balance is tilted to one side. Thats all we want from it. Its very important to realise that when the trend is bullish, it doesnt matter where we buy, we have a higher probability of success if we go for Long trades. converse is true for bearish trends.

Now once price is in the L3-L4 or H3-H4 zone, this is where CCI comes in.
Thanks Linkon..:thumb:

Can you please elaborate the bold lines, if possible with charts..

thanks again..

VK
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
I think together, we can find out the following everyday:

Whats the complete cycle (low to low or high to high) for nifty, BNF, reliance, SBI seperately, so that we can use 1/3rd of that as our period instead of standard CCI-14. This will ensure that our settings is customized for each script.

Woodie used different range bar for different scripts and kept CCI at 14. like
// ER2 1.50
// YM 25
// ES 3
// NQ 3.75
// DAX 5
// ZG 1.5
In amibroker we have a code :

TimeFrameMode( 3 );
- switches time frame functions to N-Range bar operation (positive values passed to TimeFrameSet are treated now as N-range bars)

or
we can select the intraday preference and select range bars in custom time frames.

Next thing we have to find is which range bars suits NF, BNF and reliance the most. There is a group of experts who feel that the range bar in amibroker is flawed by design and tends to give bad signal.
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
No Linkon... Sorry that my question was not clear..

Can you please elaborate on how do you link/use CCI based entry/exit when price is in the L3-L4 or H3-H4 zone.

thanks
VK
Instead of focusing on the whole price range of the day, we only concentrate on the breakout / breakdown from the cam zone.


Trendline breaks first on CCI and then on price. CCI can give u entry/exit one bar before others who follow only price or other popular indicators.


Entry is purely around cam levels only and direction / SL given by CCI. Once price exits the cam levels, then CCI just helps in trailing SL, adding positions, partial booking of profits etc. But if price is between H3 and L3, i would not like to enter there based on any indicator no matter how strong the signal is. If i feel lucky i'll switch to options and try it with very small exposure.

I am combining best of both worlds. CAMs give us the zone where balance is tilted. CCI tells us who is going to win the battle.
 

veekay304

Well-Known Member
Instead of focusing on the whole price range of the day, we only concentrate on the breakout / breakdown from the cam zone.


Trendline breaks first on CCI and then on price. CCI can give u entry/exit one bar before others who follow only price or other popular indicators.


Entry is purely around cam levels only and direction / SL given by CCI. Once price exits the cam levels, then CCI just helps in trailing SL, adding positions, partial booking of profits etc. But if price is between H3 and L3, i would not like to enter there based on any indicator no matter how strong the signal is. If i feel lucky i'll switch to options and try it with very small exposure.

I am combining best of both worlds. CAMs give us the zone where balance is tilted. CCI tells us who is going to win the battle.
thanks Lincon.. its now clear..:thumb::)

One of my probable next question is already answered (what will you do in between L3 to H3..??);)

Does this mean that you don't fully trade on woodies...??

VK
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
thanks vk for the explanation. now its clear. but will wait for confirmation from linkon.

also would like to know other ways to enter/exit.

as per my understanding (which is just 2 days old), linkon mentioned about zero line reject. when CCI14 comes down from +100 and comes near to zero and then goes back. thats when you enter long provided EMA34 also supports. reject could happen slightly below zero line also (not more than 6 bars back)

another way to enter is when trend line is broken. Trend Line is joing CCI14 or CCI6 or both lines. you can draw lines touching the pivots. we need atleast 2 pivot points. more the better. line can be horizontal or diagonal. line can touch pivot point of CCI14 and CCI6. this TLB cross-over also can be used for exit. another pattern is hook from extreme (as shown by vk above). when cci goes above 200 and starts coming down, enter short

there are patterns like ghost, vegas etc which are advanced. we can live the entire career on just Zero Line Reject and/or TLB.

When both ZLR and TLB occur together, thats a strong indicator.

exit could be at the hooks (hook is when it goes up, up and starts going down)

exit could be at TLB

exit could be at c/o of CCI14, CCI6 (both ways).

linkon , pl explain why you are looking at EMA14 also ? as per woodies we should not look at any other indiactor , not even price chart. also how this is linked to camarilla points ?
Woodies advises to avoid looking at price or any other indicator to avoid conflicts in our mind. We should be able to react without thinking.

The reason i included ema-34 on price, is because i believe that there is no point trying my luck when market is flat. Counter trend moves normally end wt breakeven or major loss or if i am lucky - minor profit. So i prefer plain valina trend trading. ZLR and trendline break is my favourite entry. ZLR is the best indicator i seen for buying dips or selling rallies. Trendline break is very reliable and i always trade the direction of ema-34 my entry is when the trend line breaks on CCI.

trendline break or HFE or divergence is my fav exit.
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
thanks Lincon.. its now clear..:thumb::)

One of my probable next question is already answered (what will you do in between L3 to H3..??);)

Does this mean that you don't fully trade on woodies...??

VK
CCI only tells u who is winning. a 52% vrs a 48% is also a win. if it skews to 55% vrs 45%, the signal becomes strong. But overall...chances are, we will hit SL if our probability of success is just 55%.

Thats why the importance is first on cams and daily price levels and fibo levels. important EMA that we might touch. all these levels are worked out before hand as market tends to react to these levels. But intraday, during trading, entry is pure L3-L4 and H3-H4, unless we have a decisive reason before hand why we will look for breakouts only or we wont look for breakouts.

like when we had a Nr14 day in NF, we were only looking for breakout trades. That single day gave me more profit than what i make in a week.
 

linkon7

Well-Known Member
Tomorrow's cam levels are :
H4 : 5,225.85
H3 : 5,205.63

L3 : 5,165.17
L4 : 5,144.95

Previous 2 days high are : 5161.9 and 5209.95
previous 2 days low are : 4993 and 5136.4

regression channel points to 5141 as the shorting point, which corresponds to the 5145 level of cam. 5136, was the low of yesterday, so a break of that can take us to 5106...which is the 38% retracement. A fall below that can take us to 5073 (50% retracement) below which this whole up move is terminated.

Up side, 5205 is the last resistance as per cam, 5210 is the high of yesterday and cam break out level is 5225. beyond that is unchartered territory and can go anywhere.

5161 day before's high and 5165 (L3) seems to be the pivot for tomorrow. 5177 is the floor pivot.

my trades :
I would go long above 5205 and go short below 5144. In between this 2 levels, i'll prefer not to pick a direction.
 

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