Today is an evening star

[vinnie]

Rajputz / AW10

The visual representation of Evening star / Evening Doji star is something different from what actually the expert analyst say in their theories. Moreover their theory and analysis is based on the behaviour pattern of investors in international market where there are confirmed bulls/bears/traders/gamblers etc... Having said that it means their trading principals are bounded by strong policies of honest governing bodies (like SEC in US).. So you know what I am referring to.. of which I can't explain explicitly further.

According to Oguru's pattern, it's an analysis of Evening star pattern in various forms. It started of with long strong bull candle and it confirmed it's weakening behaviour with advance block + 2 Doji star. I have heard of tri-doji star but never saw any 2 doji star forming on top after gap up. This whole pattern at last give a formation of a similar visualistic view of Evening star. The problem is with Indian stock market investors are that there is no obvious controllership of bulls and bear. After certain bull environment both tussle alot and their behaviour become confusing of which our local media and idealistic technical analysts also exploits with no reason. And due to which you will see multiple layer of spinning top getting formed after a severe bullish rally.

I am not saying that the evening star has a 100% success rate. In reality and especially with stock market nothing has a definite or concrete success rate. But looking into current situation and trend if you deep dive into candlestick pattern's psychology you need to combine the effective pattern to derive the situation which could even meet 70-80% of success rate. So basically the game is same, but rules and volume of players are slightly modified.

Also I believe - OGURU is not claiming the success rate for evening star to 95%. He is referring the % rate to entire candlestick pattern which exists.


-Vinnie

 

[vinodkiyer]

watching the behaviour and charasteristics of the candle sticks is one of the best methods of analysing the markets. each candle itself tells a complete and true story of what had happened for the scrip at that time,if analysed properly and can be used to predict the immediate future quite successfully

 

[rajputz]

Rajputz / AW10

The visual representation of Evening star / Evening Doji star is something different from what actually the expert analyst say in their theories. Moreover their theory and analysis is based on the behaviour pattern of investors in international market where there are confirmed bulls/bears/traders/gamblers etc... Having said that it means their trading principals are bounded by strong policies of honest governing bodies (like SEC in US).. So you know what I am referring to.. of which I can't explain explicitly further.

According to Oguru's pattern, it's an analysis of Evening star pattern in various forms. It started of with long strong bull candle and it confirmed it's weakening behaviour with advance block + 2 Doji star. I have heard of tri-doji star but never saw any 2 doji star forming on top after gap up. This whole pattern at last give a formation of a similar visualistic view of Evening star. The problem is with Indian stock market investors are that there is no obvious controllership of bulls and bear. After certain bull environment both tussle alot and their behaviour become confusing of which our local media and idealistic technical analysts also exploits with no reason. And due to which you will see multiple layer of spinning top getting formed after a severe bullish rally.

I am not saying that the evening star has a 100% success rate. In reality and especially with stock market nothing has a definite or concrete success rate. But looking into current situation and trend if you deep dive into candlestick pattern's psychology you need to combine the effective pattern to derive the situation which could even meet 70-80% of success rate. So basically the game is same, but rules and volume of players are slightly modified.

Also I believe - OGURU is not claiming the success rate for evening star to 95%. He is referring the % rate to entire candlestick pattern which exists.


-Vinnie

What aw10 and me tried to elaborate was that Candlesticks alone are not enough to predict the future prices. Like Doji it self needs two candles one at right and one at left. Simmilarly with Morning star, Simmilarly bullish or bearish engulfing, Simmilarly a hammer...all these candlesticks formation do not work alone. they need support either from some other indicator or some more candles that in congestion with each other form a pattern. no single candle can tell ay thing untill and unless it is combined with other.

 

[oguru]

What aw10 and me tried to elaborate was that Candlesticks alone are not enough to predict the future prices. Like Doji it self needs two candles one at right and one at left. Similarly with Morning star, Simmilarly bullish or bearish engulfing, Similarly a hammer...all these candlesticks formation do not work alone. they need support either from some other indicator or some more candles that in congestion with each other form a pattern. no single candle can tell ay thing untill and unless it is combined with other.

First of all I am not using candlesticks as a speculative instrument and neither I mentioned any price predictions in my posts. I only indicated the reversal patterns. Are they truly reversal patterns or not , You will see when it happens. Based on what I learn from candlesticks, There are indicators in candlesticks, that doesn't require confirmation of another candle and there are some indicators which requires confirmation.

Well !!! Let me concentrate on things that do with passion. I have another set of articles to be posted. I welcome the same kind of insights and thoughts as well.

Thanks for all who posted in this thread

 

[rajputz]

waiting...!!!!

 

[FarzanH]

Thank you very much. Good Analysis.

 

[AW10]

Are they truly reversal patterns or not , You will see when it happens.

This statement is very much true for any other pattern, not just Candlepattern or other chart patterns. Each of them work at certain times and each of them DON't work at other times.
As a trader, we have to be careful in assuming that "this is the ULTMITATE pattern" and it is going to work ALWAYS.
That's why I mentioned about success rate of evening star from reliable source. We have to be prepared for those cases when it is going to fail i.e. 30% of time.. and have realistic plan for trading that.

Based on what I learn from candlesticks, There are indicators in candlesticks, that doesn't require confirmation of another candle and there are some indicators which requires confirmation.

OGuru, I think you are mentioning about 1 bar patterns that doesn't need confirmation like Hammer, inverse hammer, Hanging man, etc. Evening start is a 3 bar pattern. So we can decisively say it only when we see 3 bars. .else we are predicting / anticipating the market . There are variation which will say 4 bar evening star / 5 bar evening star when the break comes only after few bars.

Hope this give people more realistic insight on Candles.

Happy Trading.

 

[aditya14]

Aditya,

What ever I posted is based on candlesticks. If you know candlestick, you will understand what the significance of DOJI and a Doji in a evening star. Please read my posts one more time. Did I ever said its a Red Friday ? But I agree that I said the downfall will be strong.

Eagerly waiting for what you are going to point on Monday and tuesday.

O Guru kya hua 2 candle waale evening star or red friday ko?

iam still waiting and its evenings passing day by day no sign of downward move?

 

[oguru]

O Guru kya hua 2 candle waale evening star or red friday ko?

iam still waiting and its evenings passing day by day no sign of downward move?

Aditya,

As my knowledge in Hindi is very minimal, I am trying to understand. You are asking me "what happen to evening star or red friday". correct me if I am wrong.

Aditya Are you trying to kidding me or the candlestick pattern? I posted was the pattern which I saw on the candlesticks. If this is a mistake, well, I am not going to stop , I am going to write on and on.

Well to answer your question "The bearish pattern is still intact. I am still seeing the bearish pattern in the market".

 

[rajputz]

Aditya,

As my knowledge in Hindi is very minimal, I am trying to understand. You are asking me "what happen to evening star or red friday". correct me if I am wrong.

Aditya Are you trying to kidding me or the candlestick pattern? I posted was the pattern which I saw on the candlesticks. If this is a mistake, well, I am not going to stop , I am going to write on and on.

Well to answer your question "The bearish pattern is still intact. I am still seeing the bearish pattern in the market".

What does candlestick say about the current pattern of maruti