karthikmarar said:
Hi Pankaj
Sharing some thought.
Everybody was keen to have the FII in and very happy when the market shot up irrationally. It was good news when SEBI allowed some companies increase the FII limits and stocks shot up. Now they are taking their pound of flesh and everybody is crying foul. They are here to make money and they will.
Very true we have to dance to the tune of the FII. In most blue chips they hold more than what the FI and the public put together hold. Hence the ants bringing down the elephants may not be more than just wishful thinking.
When the markets ran up and up there was hardly any discussion except some warning and apprehensions from the learned members of the forum especially Amit and Saint.
Now we had a huge drop, agreed an unusually big one. All results some manipulation, inept government moves, a stupid political party and some global cues. And of course the guys who moved the stocks up also decided to take some of what they are here for. Now we have so many discussions about the BEAR market. The indications are not there yet for a bear market. The long term fundamental story seems still in place, the technical indications are still unclear though the long term is still bullish. Are we not adding to the panic with all these talks about the big bear? Of course these are not times to be nonchalant, even optimistic. Neither it is the time to be overtly pessimistic.
Warm regards
Karthik
Hi Karthik
Glad that you shared some of thoughts in this thread. I miss your postings in Doubt Relief.
Well , to make a sweeping generalisation and
Blame It On Rio syndrome is not going to work."everybody" comprises of a very tiny set of Indian populace.
As you have also said the drop in the market was result of a combianation of factors. Usually, you would have noticed that I don't post on merits of market moves and also on individual stocks.
But such a big drop caused apprehension in the minds of members that perhaps doomsday has come . They also lost because of panic or overleveraging. (Satya's
GFH factor) It was duly reinforced by the negative commentries of some of our worthy members. Amit have cautioned in his threads against overoptimism but he also took on the negative sentiments. From my perspective such negative sentiments seems unduly alarmistic.
In times of such uncertainty , tecnincal or fundamental indicators work normally or not is a question of debate. But for one event there are many explanation. I tried to provide this with the help of
inductive logic and empirical /historical studies. It was shown that same pattern till now is followed in all these events. And every time market has moved up and also surprised everybody. Beleive me or not I am listening to the statements of analysts that market is overvalued since it crossed 6000 . But it went on to surprise everybody , for whatever the reason. There has to be strong reason for an institution to remain invested all through this. Their booking of profit will inevitably cause aome slide in the market, just a question of demand and supply.
What I tried to assure the members by sequencing the current events that this time is no different and that it will go up but you need to be cautious as short term volatility wil suck the liquidity out of the system. But this is no bear market as claimed by many. Not because FIIs are still invested in India or global recession etc( check our export / import profile, we are not so forward integrated as we believe we are).
Bear market is normally for stagnated/fully saturated economy where little growth is possible or for collapsing economy. So far Ours is not the case. At least I believe that.
Hence My view that It is not a bear market.At this junture when technical indicators don't seem to work what else could be followed.
FII, global cues,FROGs , As I am not well versed in TA I followed this and have found interesting correlation ( No it is not conspiracy, manipulation may be, profit booking certainly)
It is not the first time that questions have been raised in this regard. but we are a democratic country and also very tolerant of short cuts or long cuts.
No doubt FIIs have come and done lots of good. Perhaps one thread could be devoted to that. But a strong framework which ensures stable ans sustaine atmosphere for growth , is a must. It is yet evolving. Hence the necessity to debate and discuss. Not in relation to market , after all market is just one small aspect of the whole spectrum. it would be revealing to know how many of 100 crores really invest. Consequently its real impcat would not even be grapsed by overwhelming majority of Indians. jdm inhis post talked about market depth.
An important point. Market participants would think of even a small movements as a catastrophy but maynot cause ripples elsewhere. How long could we bask in the glory of self importance.
The answer is provided by jdm in his statement about the market depth. It needs to be increased. There has to be real retail participation from the ordinary investors. But frankly they distrust market. the word broker is not so good to be talked about. Therefore, this has to be fchanged. Proper regulatory framework to protect the investors' confidence (not his risks, which he has to understand before investing) that system will not buckle under artificial onslaught or on profit booking or on manipulation. Such things can not be stopped . But if justice is delivered and swiftly then only confidence will be restored.
Nobody wants harshad or rajan or teligi or Ketan parikh to die in jail as undertrial. The are human beings and deserve humane treatement. But justice must be done and they should serve as convicted criminal not as undertrial. That is the difference between our system and USA's system.
Then only the market will gain its depth and prestige it deserves.
These are my rambling thoughts and myobservations are based upon my experiences of the market since 2004 and a general understanding of Indian and world economy and in no way it should be taken without critical appraisal. That way I am glad that you found my statements worthy of commentry.
The moment sentiments turn positive or Saint, Amit, Supratik, Karthik , Murthy, NKP, Karuna, Amarnath and many others resume normal posting speed , I will fade into background having done my job and go back to reading and enjoying their writings. But till such time you have to
bear with me , karthik.
Regards
Pankaj