The Crash( 17.5.2006) and FII activities since then

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pkjha30

Well-Known Member
#12
Hi

Is it mayhem in may? Yes it was.
Has it ended? Don't know yet.
did victory come to one side? Who can say now, even though indices have rallied depite FIIs being the net sellers.

or is it last spasms of victims of wild dogs.(Do watch National geography for Wild dog specials, no joke. FIIs exhibit same mentality. Amit's symbology is apt)

Answers to above question evokes negative emotions.Sentiments are frail and nerves raw

So finally India is in bear grip. Has it become Japan where Nekkei tumbled downhill after rising to record highs.
The question is important since it was being compared with USA and JAPAN slide.

We will try to see frm common perspective. But first.

Global cues are neutral for India. Desi FROGs are croaking. Corporate results seem to be on their expected lines(they don't know what was their prediction or if would have come true or exceeded)


Now

Has Indian economy developed to the extent of that of japan or usa.
not yet. We have long distances to cover. Real growth ( and not the paper growth ) has to take place.

For 40 years India was socialist sovereign republic and lots of control , inspector raj. Now for 10 years the country has been put on the liberalised regime and economy has been growing. Inequity is still there and we need to ensure that the gap reduces . Widespread participation in growth and prosperity at all strata of society will only spur further growth.

What is my point?

We have not yet reached the saturation point which is the hallmark of advanced economy.To grow on a larger base is difficult and progress is much more and also visible if you are starting with small base.
Larger and advanced economy needs infusion of new ideas, new areas yet unexplored, necessity to create new markets for new things in order to grow further. So research and development activities are more in developped countries. Whereas a Growing economy has to ensure that existing status is improved.
Therefore, India has lots of hills to climb before the peak is reached and downhill tumble starts....

In my opinion it is still not a bear market. . The crash was a combination of various faactors and most of all profit booking. Imagine FII were net seller last time in October 2005 . After that they have been net buyers. Now they have turned net sellers. Are they going to kill the golden goose. Where else they will find growing economy except in what is called emerging markets. How long the so called safe investment option(bond market) will be viable? Only market can give higher reutrns with attendent risks, if economy is growing.

Long term investors have not much to worry if stocks are selected on fundamentals. But speculators have always to worry as penny companies byte more.


Pankaj :)
 

jdm

Well-Known Member
#13
pkjha30 said:
In my opinion it is still not a bear market. .
i completely agree with you. the TREND has not changed. nobody has seen such volatility but nobody had seen levels like this before also. and sensex at 10000+ this volatility is nothing but normal.

what really surprise me is the level of global integration. during the previous black monday on 17th may (how may black monday's we have to witness ???????????) its not only sensex that fell. markets world over fell. lets look some of the major index as on 17.05.2004

index.............................Close as on 17.05.2004

All Ordinaries...................3349.40
HangSeng.......................10967.65
Jakarta Composite............668.48
Kaula Lumpur...................781.05
Merval (Argentina)............839.93
Nikkei.............................10505.05
Straits Times...................1700.33
ISE National 100(Turkey)...15922.44

its really surprising how all the markets can hit lows, that are yet to breach till date, on the SAME DAY. ok i understand we here in India have a change in government. but what about Australia? what about turkey? what about Argentina? ON THE SAME DAY? too many questions.

its not that the other markets, which i didn't mentioned here did rise. major european and other markets, world over were also under sever selling pressure (i wont say bear market)

currently what we are witnessing is nothing but an extension of a global phenomenon. i would have said we are going into the bear market only and only if the Indian market fell.

but it leads to a bigger question whether the world economy is in a bear grip. well economic indicator doesn't say so. latest data shows america is growing at more than 5%, its highest in 3 years, japan is coming out of ressession after more than 15 years. and of course there is India & china (BBC is carrying a program EMERGING GIANTS - INDIA & CHINA all this week) which are currently driving the global economy.

lets for a moment consider the trend has changed and we are heading for a bear market. then where the sensex is heading. will it fall from where it has risen from.

yesterday (24.05.2006) the sensex closed at 10593.15 while its 200 DMA is at 9500 odd levels ( i intentionally didn't put the exact figure since people do tend to differ with the methodology, simple exponential etc etc). currently the sensex is quoting at a premium of 10% over its 200 DMA.

since its inception worst that has happened to the sensex was during '911' on 21.09.2001 when the sensex was quoting at 2600.12 while its 200 DMA was quoting at 3660 odd levels. a 29% discount. thats the worst in the history of sensex.

taking cue from the above observation one can conclude that the worst for the sensex is 7000 levels. 3 years back, in 2003 when it all started one could not even think the sensex to breach 4000 levels forget even dreaming of 7000.

we must realise corrections are just part of the game and one should look into the bigger picture. EVEN AFTER SUCH MAYHEM THE SENSEX IS ABOVE 10000 A LEVEL EVEN AN YEAR AGO WAS UNTHINKABLE.

cheers,
jdm.
 
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pkjha30

Well-Known Member
#14
jdm said:
i completely agree with you. the TREND has not changed. nobody has seen such volatility but nobody had seen levels like this before also. and sensex at 10000+ this volatility is nothing but normal.
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what really surprise me is the level of global integration.

we must realise corrections are just part of the game and one should look into the bigger picture. EVEN AFTER SUCH MAYHEM THE SENSEX IS ABOVE 10000 A LEVEL EVEN AN YEAR AGO WAS UNTHINKABLE.

cheers,
jdm.
Hi jdm
My opinion is well articulated by you.
There are some who would say that we are turning blind eyes to the stark reality staring in our eyes. But it is good in one sense that our economy is being integrated to the world economy and we would learn to weather vagaries of it. Strong regulatory measures will be needed when evidences of manipulation is found else free lunch for FII and corrupt indians will continue.

It is also a fact that world is recognising India for what it was , and is and will be. A long list of ancient and not so ancient achivements will have to be translated to our advantage. Else others will run away with fruits of our labour.

We also must learn to be a civilised society as it was in past, and abide by basic tenets of societal governance. We should be less tolerant of corruption and chalta hai attitude. We must do and also demand from others to do their duty and hold individual respondible for it. USA has found ENRON chief guilty and I am quite sure even his bones will not come out of jail.

As you hinted, if there is some truth, it should have been investigated and corrective measures taken to avoid future incidents.

True , that after such mayhem , market has not buckled till now. There is no such assurance that it will not buckle further. These small up and down of the market is aimed to extract last ounce of blood from the remaining as czar remarked gleefully as "straw" in the battlefield.

battle may be won but war is not yet over.

The wait will continue. Don't give in to pessimism and don't be over optimistic.Market is a creation of this world and it has to obey the laws of the world. Reality is broader than the market.

:)
Pankaj
 

jdm

Well-Known Member
#15
a society without thieves - well !!!!!!!!!!! we ALL are corrupted in one form or other and thats nothing but natural. we all have our weaknesses. yes India is a lovely place to live in, its culture, heritage, values so many things. but what really hurts me in this modern India is the lack of Justice. there will be corruption. its normal. even a few years ago america used to boasts for its efficient governance. but after enron, after tyco, after CA and plethora of other corporate irregularities its governance claim has fallen flat. but then culprits are brought under books.

when harshad mehta died there was another snippet which made its way to the pages of the newspaper. NICK LEESON WAS OUT OF JAIL AFTER SERVING A 5 YEAR JAIL SENTENCE. remember nick leeson. his acts in 1994 let to the collapse of the then Baring Bank. and here in India justice eluded millions, even so many years, after the harshad mehta scam was unearthed.

the action of thieves doesn't angers me but what angers me is the inaction of the investigative agencies.

most of the big scam in India has been unearthed by media. be it harshad mehta's nexus or the betting scam in cricket. but lets hope things will change.

Indian stock market is prone to scams is due to the lack of depth. yesterday it was the operators who controlled the market. today the Fir's has joined them. one good thing of globalization is that market forces set many things to right. and theres the hope.

its normal for people to go astray. but when you have thousands of years of culture, values, heritage, respect behind you its matter of time when we walk straight. and theres the hope.

India has come a long way. today the world not only talks about the takeover of India by the "Modern East India Companies" but also about the great Indian takeover. people like laxmi mittal, purnendu chatterjee, subir bhatia, rajat gupta, jrd tata, aditya birla, narayan murthy and many other son of the soils who has given us the courage to see that theres also a "other side of the coin". and theres the hope.

cheers,
jdm.
 

pkjha30

Well-Known Member
#16
Hi

Here is the piece of FII action today.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date--- Buy ---Value--- Sell--- Value--- Net Value
26-May-2006--- 1522.39 ---1827.1--- -304.71


They are net sellers by Rs. 304.71 crores.

Yeah they are trying to take whatever is possible without killing the Golden goose. . Two days are long enough to bring uncertainty in the minds of most certain of players. Morning global cues were neutral. Perhaps that reflected in Low volume of activities of FII. Notice today's sell is about half of yesterday's figures. while buying has dropped only by Rs. 300 crs


Quite possibly sectoral rotation is taking place in FII holding. Though in terms of percentages of their total holding it can be safely termed insignificant. But then when elephants walks along grounds shakes and ants get killed..Though the same antcould get into the nostrils and bring down the elephants. Are Our ants so courageous?


Monday's activity will provide some clue to the next direction. I think now dust is settling down. But time to venture has not yet come. It will still take some time before definite clues emerges.

So market will continue to dance to the tune of FII .It is still a wait.

Pankaj
 

chachi

Active Member
#17
pkjha30 said:
Hi

Here is the piece of FII action today.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date--- Buy ---Value--- Sell--- Value--- Net Value
26-May-2006--- 1522.39 ---1827.1--- -304.71


They are net sellers by Rs. 304.71 crores.

Yeah they are trying to take whatever is possible without killing the Golden goose. . Two days are long enough to bring uncertainty in the minds of most certain of players. Morning global cues were neutral. Perhaps that reflected in Low volume of activities of FII. Notice today's sell is about half of yesterday's figures. while buying has dropped only by Rs. 300 crs


Quite possibly sectoral rotation is taking place in FII holding. Though in terms of percentages of their total holding it can be safely termed insignificant. But then when elephants walks along grounds shakes and ants get killed..Though the same antcould get into the nostrils and bring down the elephants. Are Our ants so courageous?


Monday's activity will provide some clue to the next direction. I think now dust is settling down. But time to venture has not yet come. It will still take some time before definite clues emerges.

So market will continue to dance to the tune of FII .It is still a wait.

Pankaj
Very important info is being continuously provided by you, pankaj. Thanks for the effort. A must thread to go thru now a days. Keep the good work going.

Regards
cahchi
 

karthikmarar

Well-Known Member
#18
Hi Pankaj

Sharing some thought.

Everybody was keen to have the FII in and very happy when the market shot up irrationally. It was good news when SEBI allowed some companies increase the FII limits and stocks shot up. Now they are taking their pound of flesh and everybody is crying foul. They are here to make money and they will.

Very true we have to dance to the tune of the FII. In most blue chips they hold more than what the FI and the public put together hold. Hence the ants bringing down the elephants may not be more than just wishful thinking.

When the markets ran up and up there was hardly any discussion except some warning and apprehensions from the learned members of the forum especially Amit and Saint.
Now we had a huge drop, agreed an unusually big one. All results some manipulation, inept government moves, a stupid political party and some global cues. And of course the guys who moved the stocks up also decided to take some of what they are here for. Now we have so many discussions about the BEAR market. The indications are not there yet for a bear market. The long term fundamental story seems still in place, the technical indications are still unclear though the long term is still bullish. Are we not adding to the panic with all these talks about the big bear? Of course these are not times to be nonchalant, even optimistic. Neither it is the time to be overtly pessimistic.

Warm regards

Karthik
 

pkjha30

Well-Known Member
#19
karthikmarar said:
Hi Pankaj

Sharing some thought.

Everybody was keen to have the FII in and very happy when the market shot up irrationally. It was good news when SEBI allowed some companies increase the FII limits and stocks shot up. Now they are taking their pound of flesh and everybody is crying foul. They are here to make money and they will.

Very true we have to dance to the tune of the FII. In most blue chips they hold more than what the FI and the public put together hold. Hence the ants bringing down the elephants may not be more than just wishful thinking.

When the markets ran up and up there was hardly any discussion except some warning and apprehensions from the learned members of the forum especially Amit and Saint.
Now we had a huge drop, agreed an unusually big one. All results some manipulation, inept government moves, a stupid political party and some global cues. And of course the guys who moved the stocks up also decided to take some of what they are here for. Now we have so many discussions about the BEAR market. The indications are not there yet for a bear market. The long term fundamental story seems still in place, the technical indications are still unclear though the long term is still bullish. Are we not adding to the panic with all these talks about the big bear? Of course these are not times to be nonchalant, even optimistic. Neither it is the time to be overtly pessimistic.

Warm regards

Karthik
Hi Karthik

Glad that you shared some of thoughts in this thread. I miss your postings in Doubt Relief.

Well , to make a sweeping generalisation and Blame It On Rio syndrome is not going to work."everybody" comprises of a very tiny set of Indian populace.

As you have also said the drop in the market was result of a combianation of factors. Usually, you would have noticed that I don't post on merits of market moves and also on individual stocks.

But such a big drop caused apprehension in the minds of members that perhaps doomsday has come . They also lost because of panic or overleveraging. (Satya's GFH factor) It was duly reinforced by the negative commentries of some of our worthy members. Amit have cautioned in his threads against overoptimism but he also took on the negative sentiments. From my perspective such negative sentiments seems unduly alarmistic.

In times of such uncertainty , tecnincal or fundamental indicators work normally or not is a question of debate. But for one event there are many explanation. I tried to provide this with the help of inductive logic and empirical /historical studies. It was shown that same pattern till now is followed in all these events. And every time market has moved up and also surprised everybody. Beleive me or not I am listening to the statements of analysts that market is overvalued since it crossed 6000 . But it went on to surprise everybody , for whatever the reason. There has to be strong reason for an institution to remain invested all through this. Their booking of profit will inevitably cause aome slide in the market, just a question of demand and supply.

What I tried to assure the members by sequencing the current events that this time is no different and that it will go up but you need to be cautious as short term volatility wil suck the liquidity out of the system. But this is no bear market as claimed by many. Not because FIIs are still invested in India or global recession etc( check our export / import profile, we are not so forward integrated as we believe we are). Bear market is normally for stagnated/fully saturated economy where little growth is possible or for collapsing economy. So far Ours is not the case. At least I believe that.

Hence My view that It is not a bear market.At this junture when technical indicators don't seem to work what else could be followed.

FII, global cues,FROGs , As I am not well versed in TA I followed this and have found interesting correlation ( No it is not conspiracy, manipulation may be, profit booking certainly)

It is not the first time that questions have been raised in this regard. but we are a democratic country and also very tolerant of short cuts or long cuts. No doubt FIIs have come and done lots of good. Perhaps one thread could be devoted to that. But a strong framework which ensures stable ans sustaine atmosphere for growth , is a must. It is yet evolving. Hence the necessity to debate and discuss. Not in relation to market , after all market is just one small aspect of the whole spectrum. it would be revealing to know how many of 100 crores really invest. Consequently its real impcat would not even be grapsed by overwhelming majority of Indians. jdm inhis post talked about market depth. An important point. Market participants would think of even a small movements as a catastrophy but maynot cause ripples elsewhere. How long could we bask in the glory of self importance.

The answer is provided by jdm in his statement about the market depth. It needs to be increased. There has to be real retail participation from the ordinary investors. But frankly they distrust market. the word broker is not so good to be talked about. Therefore, this has to be fchanged. Proper regulatory framework to protect the investors' confidence (not his risks, which he has to understand before investing) that system will not buckle under artificial onslaught or on profit booking or on manipulation. Such things can not be stopped . But if justice is delivered and swiftly then only confidence will be restored. Nobody wants harshad or rajan or teligi or Ketan parikh to die in jail as undertrial. The are human beings and deserve humane treatement. But justice must be done and they should serve as convicted criminal not as undertrial. That is the difference between our system and USA's system.

Then only the market will gain its depth and prestige it deserves.


These are my rambling thoughts and myobservations are based upon my experiences of the market since 2004 and a general understanding of Indian and world economy and in no way it should be taken without critical appraisal. That way I am glad that you found my statements worthy of commentry.

The moment sentiments turn positive or Saint, Amit, Supratik, Karthik , Murthy, NKP, Karuna, Amarnath and many others resume normal posting speed , I will fade into background having done my job and go back to reading and enjoying their writings. But till such time you have to bear :D :D with me , karthik.

Regards
Pankaj :) :)
 
#20
pkjha30 said:
.....
The moment sentiments turn positive or Saint, Amit, Supratik, Karthik , Murthy, NKP, Karuna, Amarnath and many others resume normal posting speed , I will fade into background having done my job and go back to reading and enjoying their writings. But till such time you have to bear :D :D with me , karthik.

Regards
Pankaj :) :)
oops marathon reading Pankaj. Hey I am in the same boat, Pankaj. Till volatility exits I am here to post crazy. After that I will hibernate. Bear me too guys.

cheers,
nkpanjiyar
 
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