Technical analysis on EU,GU and major pairs

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johny5

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#21
Fundamental Analysis, November 25, 2010

The price of crude oil has recorded yesterday its sharpest advance in the last four months, jumping up by over 3% to a level of 84 US dollars for one barrel during electronic trading at the New York Commodities exchange. The price of gold, in the meanwhile, recorded a slight descent by 0.4% to a level of 1372 US dollars for one ounce of gold.
Wall Street trading closed yesterday on index rises inspired by positive macroeconomic data from the labor market. By the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had strengthened by 1.4% to 11,188 points, the NASDAQ index ticked up by 1.9% to 2,543 points, whereas the S&P 500 had risen by 1.5% to 1,198 points. Today the stock markets in the United States will be closed for Thanksgiving.
Index rises have been recorded this morning in the Asian stock markets for the first time in three days. As such the Tokyo stock exchange has recorded a 0.8% rise, the Hong Kong exchange climbs about 1%, and the Seoul exchange climbs slightly by 0.2%.
In the American macroeconomic arena, the Irish government had published data yesterday regarding its new austerity plan including the reduction of government deficits by 15 billion Euros (4% of the nation's GDP) over 4 years. The program includes a 10 billion expenditures cut as well as new taxes that will increase government revenue by 5 billion Euros.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday that the amount of new unemployment claims in the United States had fallen last week by 34 thousand to 407 thousand, the lowest level since July 2008. The reduction was far sharper than predicted by analysts, who expected to see 435 thousand new unemployment claims. Furthermore, it was reported that private consumption in the United States grew by 0.4% in October, slightly lower than economists' predictions of a 0.5% rise. Furthermore, the order data for non-consumable products had descended by 3.3% in October as compared to the previous month, while analysts expected only a 0.1% decline in orders.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
 

johny5

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#22
EUR/USD Intraday Technical analysis 2010-11-25


The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its medium-term downtrend channel at 1.3340. A breakout of this area will free a significant potential for the brginning of an upward trend.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance level at 1.3340 with a 1st objective of 1.3420, then 1.3460. A breakthrough at 1.3310 will invalidate this scenario.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
 

johny5

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#23
Fundamental Analysis, November 26, 2010

Index declines have been recorded this morning in the Asian stock markets, led by South Korean and commodities stock due to China's attempts to bring inflation under control, the debt crisis in Europe and the tensions in South Korea. As such, the Tokyo stock exchange drops 0.2%, the Hong Kong stock exchange drops about 0.1%, the Seoul stock exchange dives about 1.3%, and the Shanghai exchange retreats by 0.5%.

The European debt crisis is expanding, with Portugal and Spain at the center of concern these days, due to investors' fears that, should the Portuguese crisis worsen, it will expand also to neighboring Spain. Interest rates on Portuguese ten-year bonds have jumped up to 7% yesterday, and those on Spanish bonds leaped up to 5.08%. Furthermore, there exist concerns that the European aid fund is not large enough to also rescue Spain, the 4th largest Eurozone economy. It must be noted that Spain's economy is largest than those of Greece, Ireland, and Portugal combined. That said, the Spanish deputy Minister of Finance stated yesterday that the country would not require funding until the end of the year.

In the same context, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, clarified in her Berlin speech that despite European concerns over the Irish debt crisis threatening to engulf other Eurozone states, so far no country is required to reorganize its debt. The chancellor added that Germany is ready to act in solidarity with its European partners to preserve the market strength of the Euro.

Today is Black Friday in the United States, the opening shot for the holiday shopping season in the United States. As in every year, investors will be watching retail chain sales closely, as they have long become an index of the strength of private consumption, and thus the overall state of the American economy.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
 

johny5

Well-Known Member
#24
Candlestick analysis of the GBP/USD for 26/11/2010

On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD currency pair is continuing to decline. The viewpoint on the currency pair is bearish, as earlier the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing formed; this combination indicates the decrease, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks appeared after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here. Further the bears started to increase their presence.
The breakout of 1.5841 confirms this point of view. After a pullback the pair resumed its decline with the target to 1.5651.
In case the resistance level of 1.6096 is breached then short positions should be closed, as it will lead to advance to 1.6175.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
 

johny5

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#25

Overview:
The sell signal with the target to 1.2949 is still observed. The current signal is strong and confirmed, as the price is below the Ishimoku Cloud and the Chinkou Span is below the price graph. That is why the first target for the downside movement is the second support level of 1.3315, which the price reached but has not yet overcome. In case the second resistance level is passed the next target will be the third support level of 1.3186. The critical level below which the downside movement is presented is Kijun-Sen (1.3530), it is recommended to cut short positions above this level The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, thus confirming the current sell signal. Bollinger Bands show the continuation of downwards movement, the lines are diverging and directed down. MACD is ascending, thus showing the slight correction movement.

Trading recommendations:
Currently, it is recommended to trade down with the target to 1.3186, we enter the market only after the price fixates below 1.3315. Stop Loss is placed above 1.3530. Also in order to trade down it is necessary to wait for MACD reverses downside.


Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
 

johny5

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#26
EUR/USD Technical Analysis. Support and Resistance Levels For November 29, 2010



Today Technical Level :

Breakout Buy level : 1.3275.
Strong Resistance : 1.3267.
Original Resistance : 1.3255.
Inner Sell Area : 1.3242.
Target Inner Area : 1.3211.
Inner Buy Area : 1.3179.
Original Support : 1.3167.
Strong Support : 1.3154.
Breakout Sell level : 1.3146.

Today Outlook :

The pair EUR/USD is still appeared biased within the downtrend. However, if the retesting of the level 1.3200 fails, the pair will break up the level 1.3250; in this case, EUR/USD is likely to reach the level 1.3275 before continuing rising up to the mark 1.3300.
On the other hand, if after having retested the level 1.3200 successfully the pair breakdowns this level, EUR/USD is expected to fall to the level 1.3175 as a first target and 1.3150 as a second one.

Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
 

johny5

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#27
Candlestick analysis of the GBP/US for November 29, 2010



Candlestick analysis of the GBP/US for November 29, 2010
On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD continues to decline. As it was expected the GBP/USD has broken through the support level of 1.5661. We expect the decrease with target to 1.5500 after a pullback.
The outlook is bearish, as earlier the pair formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing that indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks emerged after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not manage to fixate here. Further, the bears started to increase their influence.
A breakout of 1.5841 confirms this point of view.
However, it is worth pointing out that in case the resistance level of 1.6096 is broken through then short positions should be closed, as it will lead to increase to 1.6173.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
 

johny5

Well-Known Member
#28
GBP/USD. Continuation of the downwards movement, November 30, 2010



GBP/USD

Due to concerns over the European debt crisis, the British pound/ US dollar pair dove sharply from its previous highs of 1.6300 and to its present levels around 1.5550. The likelihood for a trend reversal or at the very least a technical correction have risen sharply after the pair was braked by the strong support level of 1.1550 US dollars for one British pound.

Although it is possible to enter a buy deal even now, a daily close over the support level will add confidence to the upwards movement. On the other hand, one must be careful regarding the possibility for continued negative momentum. In the case of a final breach at 1.5480 will produce a signal for a position reversal and move to a sell deal on the pair with an exit goal around the next support level around 1.5250 US dollars per one British pound.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
 

johny5

Well-Known Member
#29
EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for November 30



Overview:
The sell signal with the target to 1.2949 is still presented. The current signal is strong and confirmed as the price managed to fixate below the Ishimoku Cloud and the Chinkou Span is below the price graph. In this case the first target for the downside motion is the second support level of 1.2824. The Kijun-Sen (1.3230) is the critical level below which the downwards tendency is still observed, it is recommended to cut short positions above this level. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, thus confirming the current sell signal. Bollinger Bands show the continuation of the downtrend, the lines are diverging and directed down. MACD is descending, thus pointing to the current downwards motion.

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with a target to 1.3033 and further to 1.2824. Stop Loss is placed above 1.3230.

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
 

johny5

Well-Known Member
#30
GBP/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for December 01, 2010



Overview:
The sell signal with a target to 1.5531 is still observed. The current signal is strong and confirmed, as the price managed to fixate below the Ishimoku cloud and the Chinkou Span is below the price graph. In this case the first target for downside movement is the first support level of 1.5416. If this level is passed the next target will be the second support level of 1.5240. Kijun-Sen (1.5635) is the critical level below which the downwards motion maintains, it is recommended to cut short positions above this level. Also it is worth pointing out that the target level of 1.5531 has been passed already and MACD indicated the correction movement, which can be the beginning of new uptrend. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, thus confirming the current sell signal. Bollinger Bands show the continuation of downside motion, the lines are converging and directed down, thus pointing to correction movement against the downtrend. MACD is ascending, which means the beginning of correction tendency.

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with a target to 1.5416 and further to 1.5240. Stop Loss is placed above 1.5635. We enter the market only after the correction ends, which will be indicated by the turndown of MACD.


Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
 
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