Sunil_1972 view on market

[sunil_1972]

Nifty still on a confusion phase. From todays point of view 5147-5080 range is on.
These to be considered as break even points.
Hangseng made a gap between 20821 and 21081 on Monday.
Now it is 387 point below and it made a hammer pattern today.
If Dow closes above 10613 the rally will continue. But I dont think it going to happen today.
14 day RSI of these markets are also showing a profit booking mode.
It will happen anytime this week.
And it will be very sharp.

 

[sunil_1972]

This is going to be tough times ahead for me "a poor bear". But I still believe going higher without proper profit booking, fall will be more deeper.

 

[sunil_1972]

I said earlier about the tough times for bears, and certainly feeling the heat of Bull's.
But......
Look at the intraday chart of DOW and NIFTY.
14 Day RSI is alarmingly high. For DOW it is 95 today. I never saw this since 2006 from where I tracking this market.
For Nifty it is 91.7 today. RSI of Nifty reched all time high of 96.74 on Jan 9, 2008. That day Nifty closed at 6272. The rest was history.......
Nifty fell 1135 points in next 16 days.....!!!!!!!
Look at the Put-Call Ratio of Nifty. For March contract, Openinterest based PCR is 2.04. Means Open interest on Put's are double to Call's (It could be short or long). April PCR is 1.64 and overall PCR is 1.81.

I am not recommending sell. But I think we are climbing towards the top of a dangerous volcano. Caution is the need of the hour.

 

[saivenkat]

I said earlier about the tough times for bears, and certainly feeling the heat of Bull's.
But......
Look at the intraday chart of DOW and NIFTY.
14 Day RSI is alarmingly high. For DOW it is 95 today. I never saw this since 2006 from where I tracking this market.
For Nifty it is 91.7 today. RSI of Nifty reched all time high of 96.74 on Jan 9, 2008. That day Nifty closed at 6272. The rest was history.......
Nifty fell 1135 points in next 16 days.....!!!!!!!
Look at the Put-Call Ratio of Nifty. For March contract, Openinterest based PCR is 2.04. Means Open interest on Put's are double to Call's (It could be short or long). April PCR is 1.64 and overall PCR is 1.81.

I am not recommending sell. But I think we are climbing towards the top of a dangerous volcano. Caution is the need of the hour.

If market remains in the sideways for few days, a "fear factor" will grip in and fresh shorts will be created..thereby RSI will droop its high held head a 91.7 levels to below 90 levels, and then as a next step these shorts will be absorbed by this market and fresh longs will be created.

I am enclosing my view of nifty..i feel that "mouth of the volcano" is at 5483 levels, but certainly the volcano is brooding inside, building momentum.. for a big blast..

Regards
Saivenkat

 

[sunil_1972]

Hai saivenkat... Thanks for your update.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) is not the indicator of "fear factor". It shows the pace of movement. Whether upward or downward. Certainly Nift's RSI will come down tomorrow unless it cross 5300. The problem is lack of profit booking. Nifty rallied 401 points for the last 18 days, of which it went on to red in just 4 days. And that will be -11, -7, -22 and -8. DOW rallied 460 points till today in this period. And it went on red just 3 days. These rallies are not healthy for any market. "If any news affecting market went other way, there will be total collapse" (not my wordings, said Mark Faber)

 

[rajputz]

Dont listen to news buddies...and Even if RSI is in overbought region, then also it can hover in that area widout falling for days and days...so just rely on this factor alone....

 

[sunil_1972]

Definitely I am a 'bear'. Take my views on that basis.
Waiting, waiting and waiting. I am hungry and angry for blood.

 

[rajputz]

check suzlon again sunil....i bought it at 74.90

 

[sunil_1972]

Now Suzlon become a tough call to predict. Lot of support and resistance hovering around it. I cant say anything, unless it break to a direction.

 

[rajputz]

Simmilar feeling from my side....cant guess