PERFORMANCE REPORT FOR SINGLE MA SYSTEM - PART I
Hi friends,
I have been posting BUY triggers and their follow up in this thread since July 2009. But I did not keep complete record of these triggers then. After some time I had to be away and there was a break in the posts. I resumed posting the triggers again from May 14, 2010 (posted on 17-05-2010). I have kept complete record of the triggers since May 2010 so that the performance of the system can be carried out. Now, after a period of 4-and-a-half months I feel it is necessary to check the performance so far. I am reporting this in two parts, the first one which is below is the statistics of the triggers. In the second part which I will post after a couple of days I will analyze the performance in terms of profit and loss. The following report is based on the triggers generated from May 14, 2010 to September 30, 2010 both days included.
During the period, a total of 391 BUY triggers were generated. Three of them were affected severely by corporate actions like rights issue, merger/demerger. The three affected stocks are REIAGRO, RNRL and HARRMALAYA. The losses due to corporate actions in these stocks are:
REIAGRO: 38.54%
RNRL: 28.50%
HARRMALAYA: 24.28%
The corporate actions have given benefits in different ways but these can not be added to the prices of the stocks. Therefore, these three tocks are left out for the performance evaluation and the rest 388 triggers are used.
DETAILS:
Out of the 388 triggers, 158 are still open and 230 are closed.
173 have reached targets, 67 are yet to reach the first target and 148 failed to reach even the first target.
If we put aside the triggers which are yet to reach the first target, then the success to failure ratio is 173/321 = 53.9% success and 46.1% failure.
Out of the 67 triggers which are yet to reach the target, 47 are in profit and 20 are in loss. If we assume that those in profit will eventually reach the target and those in loss will fail then the overall success/failure ratio is (173 + 47)/388 = 56.7% success and 43.9% failure.
The total number of open positions is 158 and 67 are yet to reach target, the remaining 91 have reached target and are progressing towards next target.
In the 230 closed positions, 148 have failed to reach any target and remaining 82 have closed after reaching target.
A total of 173 triggers have reached target. The break-up of these is as follows:
64 reached first target and closed while 46 reached first target and still open (moving towards second target)
16 reached second target and closed, 28 reached second target and are open (moving towards third target)
2 reached third target and closed and 10 reached third target and are open (moving towards fourth target)
6 reached fourth target and all of them are still open (moving towards fifth target)
Only one has reached fifth target and is still open (moving towards sixth target)
The figures in above paragraph can be combined as:
110 were able to reach first target
44 were able to reach second target
12 could reach third target
6 could reach fourth target
Only 1 reached fifth target
The above results are shown graphically in the following figures:
If we assume that those triggers which have achieved target and are still open will eventually reach the next target, then the distribution of target achievement will be:
64 reach 1st target = 37.0%
62 reach 2nd target = 35.8%
30 reach 3rd target = 17.3%
10 reach 4th target = 5.8%
7 reach 5th target = 4.1%
Among the profit making stocks the highest profit of 117.3% is achieved by GITANJALI
Among the loss making stocks the highest loss of 13.7% was recorded by PATNI
This report may not be an accurate interpretation of the data available. It may not be as per the rules of statistics. It is a record of my observations and conclusions as per my understanding. Others may be able to give a better and more scientific and statistically correct interpretation. I welcome such better interpretations from any of the members.
NOTE:
- THIS REPORT IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW THE SYSTEM.
- THIS IS NOT A DOCUMENT IN SUPPORT OF THE SYSTEM.
- THIS IS NOT A CERTIFICATE ENDORSING THE SYSTEM.
-Anant