Stock research

tazzking

Well-Known Member
#71
Navneet Publications India Ltd

:Navneet Publications India Ltd


Story:Whether you buy your books from a mammoth 10,000 sq. ft bookstore, or a 10-shelf neighbourhood shop, you are sure to spot books by Navneet Publications (India), especially in the kids books sections. What works for the company is not only its wide reach, but also a broader factorit being in the education sector, which is non-cyclical.Other than publications, where it prints educational books (such as model question papers and guides) and general books (such as books for children, health and cookery), the company also deals in paper and non-paper stationery.The company has maintained growth across businesses. It controls about 60 per cent publication business market share in western India. Change in school syllabi in Gujarat and Maharashtra in the last few years was a big opportunity for it and its business grew well during those years. Even in FY09, when there was no major change in syllabus, publication revenue saw an increase.The company has avoided stiff competition in the book publication industry by focusing only on supplementary books. Although there are many branded players in the core textbooks segment, there are hardly any for supplementary books.Stationery products are the companys growth engine. In FY09, the revenue from this segment grew 69 per cent on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis. This segments revenue share has increased from 38 per cent in FY06 to 45 per cent in FY09.In the stationery market, although there are big players like ITC and Camlin, the companys brand name and well-spread distribution network helps it steer through the competition.To tap the fast growing e-learning avenue, in FY08, it started providing e-learning modules that can be used in classrooms as well as by students individually. It also has a tie-up with an e-learning content provider for content creation.Financial numbers reflect the companys growth. In FY09, net sales went up by 25 per cent from the previous year. A near-flat growth in publication (2.60 per cent) was compensated by high growth (69 per cent) in stationery products. The growth in net profit was low at 4 per cent due to high non-operating expenses.The rising cost of paper is a major source of risk to profit margin. However, till now, it has been able to mitigate the effect of rising paper prices by passing the burden on to customers. Its strong brand name helps it increases prices without affecting sales. Moreover, it is able to hike prices in niche segments such as health, cookery and childrens books, where quality is priority.A major factor in favour of Navneet Publications is that it operates in a non-cyclical sector. Indias young population is growing. That would ensure continuous demand for education products. Increased focus on spreading education, both by the government and private entities, is also a boost for it since it is a leading player.Also, other than the conventional modes of learning, demand in the e-learning segment is set to rise, a tide the company seems ready to ride.The company has a long history of sharing its profits with shareholders. Its policy is to distribute at least 25 per cent of its profits to its shareholders as dividend.At the current level, the stock is a long-term buy that should give you price appreciation plus some certain returns in the form of dividends.
 

tazzking

Well-Known Member
#72
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd

Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd


Story:MTNL continues to lose out to more efficient private operators and higher wages impact margins. While fundamental reasons for owning MTNL are few, cash per share of Rs 53, continued positive free cash flow, and a stable dividend yield of 4% provide some downside support for the stock. MTNL continues to lose market share to the more efficiently run and more customer-centric private operators in both the wireline and wireless segments. Moreover, the core wireline business is still under pressure as wireless tariffs are falling consistently. MTNL''s wireline and wireless revenues are to keep falling. Broadband remains the only growth driver, but its small base provides limited upside to revenues.A big brokerage house has cut its FY10E/FY11E revenue by 15%/13% and FY10E/FY11E EBITDA by 60%/37%. EBITDA margins are also affected by higher employee costs following the pay commission increase. The EPS estimates are cut by 72%/25%.I expect a revenue decline of 5% and a 4% EPS CAGR over FY09-11.A hold as of now,as a merger with bsnl can change the scenario completely.
 

tazzking

Well-Known Member
#73
AMD Industries Ltd(AMD Metplast)

AMD Industries Ltd(AMD Metplast)


Story: Of late, the packaging of stuffs like soft drinks, mineral water, and other alcoholic products has undergone tremendous changes from the ubiquitous structure to a slick exterior.In fact, today, the way packaging is done indicates the measures the players in the packaging industry are undertaking to notch up on the progress bar. And thanks to these measures, the players in the industry are raking in the moolah.AMD Metplast, a player in the beverage packaging industry, made an attempt for its score on the progress bar.AMD Metplast is primarily into manufacturing of crown caps, plastic closures and PET preforms (bottles, before blowing into full size bottles, capsules are called "preforms").It would amount to hasty generalisation to term the scrip as expensive, considering it is the only player in the beverage packing industry. But it must be noted that the size of business that AMD Metplast has and the P/E that it commands is unwarranted.Also, the company excessively depends on a single customer: Hindustan Coca Cola Beverages, which constitutes more than 80% of the total revenues of crown caps and more than 72% in pet preforms and closures. And investors must be wary of this fact.The company came out with its ipo couple of years ago at 65 odd which got oversubscribed to the tune of 5 times.At 26rs I feel downsides are limited and long term investors may well take a position for a target of 35-40rs in the coming 9-12 months.A safe buy.
 

tazzking

Well-Known Member
#74
Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd

Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd

Story:India’s third-largest sugar company is likely to see 69% y-o-y earnings growth in the next four quarters based on: 1) sugar prices rising 67% in the last year; 2) sale of low-cost inventory - about 48% of total sales volume - in FY09E High-margin and low-capital engineering business gave Triveni stable cash flows and better return ratios than peers in the last sugar cycle downturn. HSBC expects its average return ratios (FY09E-10E RoE of 20%, RoIC (return on invested capital of 17%) to be better than Bajaj Hindusthan (5% and 6%) and Balrampur Chini Mills (17% and 13%). Triveni (PE of 13x, PB (price to book value) of 2.1x and EV/EBITDA of 6.4x) is trading cheaper than its peers, Bajaj Hindusthan (PE of 57x; PB of 3.3x; EV/EBITDA of 10.8x) and Balrampur Chini (PE of 14.8x; PB of 2x; EV/EBITDA of 7.3x) on FY10E multiples.The risk on the downside is lower than forecast sugar prices.A good buy at dips.
 

tazzking

Well-Known Member
#75
Gujarat NRE Coke Ltd

Gujarat NRE Coke Ltd

Story:I have raised mycoking coal price forecast by 17% for FY11, buoyed by China turning a net importer of coking coal and a possible restart of steel capacity globally. The recent settlement of coking coal at $129/t was surprisingly strong, as the expectation was for around $100-110. More so, the remainder of coking coal quantities left from last year’s contract at $300 has not been waived off. GNC owns two coking coal mines in Australia, with 580-million tonne reserves and a current mine coal production of 1 million tonnes. GNC has augmented its coke capacity by 25% to 1.25 million tonnes. GNC remains the best stock in which to invest to take advantage of the upturn in the coking coal cycle. GNC has good quality reserves, an excellent location and is well on its way to become one of the world’s top-ten producers of prime hard coking coal in the next three years.A superb asset for a period of 8-10 years.
 

tazzking

Well-Known Member
#76
Bayer CropScience Ltd

Bayer CropScience Ltd


Story:BCS is a market leader in the Indian agrichemical sector, with a market share of 23%. Going ahead, there exists a huge opportunity for BCS to grow its domestic business, given that the penetration of pesticides in the Indian market is abysmally low compared to its Asian and Global peers.India produces approximately 16% of the worlds total food grain, but utilises a mere 2% of pesticides.The companys Return on Equity (RoE) is expected to remain robust over FY2009-11 (Expected) at around 24% levels.Sum of the parts (SOTP)gives a target price of Rs 501 by assigning a target price to earning (PE) multiple of 10 times for BCS core business.I have also added 50% discounted value of the companys Thane land, translating into Rs 101 share (post tax).Considering all these points,bcs is a good bet at dips to be bought for the longer term perspective.
 

tazzking

Well-Known Member
#77
OM Metals Infraprojects Ltd

OM Metals Infraprojects Ltd


Story:India has a huge mismatch in thermal and hydro power capacities. India has total estimated and identified hydro power potential of ~148,700 MW of which only 36,878 MW has been constructed so far, leaving huge untapped hydro power potential. Asper 11th & 12th Five year plan Government of India has planned 45,585 MW (2224MW commissioned till March09) of new hydro power generation capacity by FY17.To enable better utilization of water resources and irrigation, central Govt has initiated Accelerated Irrigation Benefits Program (AIBP) and allocated Rs.350 bn for FY10.These plans also is expected to lead to a substantial spend towards hydromechanical segment which in turn will provide big opportunity for OMIL.OMIL enjoys a little over 50% market share in hydromechanical segment with over 35years of proven track record. With OMILs efficient service offering across the valuechain in the business enabled it to successfully execute over 50 projects across 18states, including some historic and landmark projects. With every new projectcompletion OMIL continues to strengthen its leadership position and has proven itscredibility as the most preferred vendor/partner.Hydro mechanical projects are of high importance as its efficient implementation is must for not only timely power generation but also for the safety of nearby villages.The tendering follows the ICB (International Competitive Bidding) process. The bidders are evaluated on technical expertise, size and most importantly on thenumber and size of successfully completed similar projects. On the back of OMILsunmatched past track records of successful execution of mega projects the companysuccessfully pre qualifies for all the tenders it bid. At the same time these criteria poseas biggest entry barrier for the new entrants in the segment.OMIL has a strong order book of over Rs.6.2bn, executable over a period of 3-4 yearsproviding a strong visibility of the earning potentials. Furthermore the order book isset to increase substantially just by the fact that NHPC alone is awaiting clearance for6731MW of projects which will pose an opportunity of over Rs. 15 bn - Rs .25 bn ofhydromechanical projects. There is a clear visibility that OMIL will grow over 30%CAGR for next 3 years. On the back of its cost efficient practices, timely execution ofprojects and presence in the entire value chain OMIL enjoys superior margins to itspeers.To explore the newer opportunities OMIL along with a partner has won the tender todevelop Pondicherry SEZ (Owns 18.5%) & Pondicherry Sea Port (50% ownership) on BOOT basis. Apart from these OMIL in a consortium has also won a SRA project in Bandra to develop 0.4mn sqft of construction space where OMIL enjoys 35%ownership. The above mentioned projects are expected to take off in next 12 months.in our projections we have not considered any upside from this vertical, as and when it happens it will lead to further re-rating of the stock.We expect OMILs revenue and profits to grow at CAGR of 37% & 23% respectively,between FY09-FY11F. At CMP of Rs27.4 the stock is trading at 8.5x FY10F EPS of Rs 3.2 and 6.9x FY11F EPS of Rs 4, which is at a substantial discount to its peers in the Engineering business. We have not considered any revenue from the potential projects in real estate and infrastructure segment. Given the robust macro outlook, strong order book, market leadership, stringent entry barriers, impressive margins,net debt free balance sheet, strong project execution ability and much cheapervaluations; we initiate BUY recommendation on the stock.
 

tazzking

Well-Known Member
#78
Madhucon Projects Ltd

Madhucon Projects Ltd


Story:Madhucon Projects (MPL) has a good mix of assets, which yield consistent returns and cash flows and which we believe will facilitate it to continue investing in the high-growth businesses of real estate, power and coal going ahead. We prefer MPL on account of the following: 1) Cooling commodity prices, which we believe would benefit MPL as it has orders with fixed price contracts; 2) Despite the recent run up in the stock, there exists a substantial valuation arbitrage between MPL and its peers; 3) MPL is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the improving liquidityscenario as it has an attractive portfolio of offerings; and 4) Certain catalyst/triggers (power and coal business) are still not priced in.We have assigned a PE of 8x FY2011E EPS of Rs 25.7 for its core construction business, 1x FY2011E P/BV for its BOT business at a value of Rs 270 cr (Rs73/share). On the real estate front, we have valued the land, at Rs 18.9 cr (Rs 5.1/share). At Rs 227, the stock is trading at attractive valuations, 6.7x and 5.0x on FY2010E and FY2011E Earnings respectively, after adjusting for BOT projects, power and real estate. Therefore, we recommend a Buy on the stock with a SOTP Target price of Rs 305.
 

tazzking

Well-Known Member
#79
KCP Sugar & Industries Corporation Ltd

KCP Sugar & Industries Corporation Ltd


Story:There is drought in U.P. which may lead to lower crop of sugarcane. However,rainfall in south has been reasonable. As a result, availability of sugarcane in south is expected to be higher which should lead to higher sugar production. Moreover, in U.P., Administered price of sugarcane has become a big headache. In view of same,south based sugar companies may provide betterappreciation. KCP Sugar has reported excellent results for Q1. On sales of 85 crs., PAT is 13.15 crs. Q1 EPS is Rs. 1.16. Sugar prices are continuing their upward march which should enable KCPSugar to achieve best ever results in its history.09-10 EPS can be Rs. 4.50. Price target Rs. 45/- in 6-9 months
 

tazzking

Well-Known Member
#80
Windsor Machines Ltd

Windsor Machines Ltd


Story:This Thane based Company (earlier known as Klocknor Windsor) is engaged in theproduction of Extrusion Machineries for Plastic Industry. Until last year, Companywas suffering heavy losses due to mismanagement and subsequent inadequateworking capital. Company has completed debt restructuring exercise.For Quarter Ended June '09. Company has made huge turn around with 41.67 cr.sales and 2.46 cr. PAT. Q1 EPS is Rs. 1.90. For 09-10, Windsor is likely to achieve 170 cr. sales and PAT of 11 crs. which will translate into EPS of 8.45. Stock is trading at less than 3x FY10E EPS. Arcil had been holding around 6.50% stake in the co and as per our estimates, has already sold more than 4% in last few days. Once,Arcil selling is over, share price can rise much faster on lower trading volumes. Due to carry forward losses, dividend will not be paid for 2-3 years. However, considering sharp improvement in profitability, share price can go upto Rs. 32-35 in 6 months. Current market cap is just Rs.22 crs.A good buy at dips.