Option Buy Recomendations

[TraderJunkie]

Thanks much TJ.

Keeping my fingers crossed for Monday!

Regards,
Sriram

Hope you got out at 25

 

[TraderJunkie]

Hi Dan,

I hope there will be a gap up opening due to good results from SBI and Reliance. Also the market closing of dowjones was good on Friday. European markets were green on friday during our trading hours inspite we dint pick cues from it and start moving up. Combining all these factors, I expect nifty to move till 5750 - 5780 and settle around 5740 by end of the day. whats ur take?

Please suggest.


Regards,
Sriram

Hi Sriram,

Good thoughts - but I have to disagree on taking cues from the global markets - at this point. Yes overall our markets are now quite co-related with global markets , but the current down-trend in India is based on our local macro factors (less than stellar results, political turmoil, rising commodities and oil prices).

In-fact positive global cues might be negative for our markets in the very short term. Why ? - Global investors who invested in emerging markets last year now have lesser risk and higher reward to invest in US and Europe since those markets seem to have bottomed out. US is quite out of the woods (results from McD, WalMart are leading indicators) and Europe's sovereign debt problems seem to have all been factored into their price - for now.

So for our markets, we are seeing some margin compression on the NIFTY -from 18 times forward we are now looking at 14-15X forward. This is expiry week so there might be wild swings, but I don't think there is upward momentum to cross 5900-6000.

Just my thoughts.

TJ

 

[$ashpats$]

Hi Sriram,

Good thoughts - but I have to disagree on taking cues from the global markets - at this point. Yes overall our markets are now quite co-related with global markets , but the current down-trend in India is based on our local macro factors (less than stellar results, political turmoil, rising commodities and oil prices).

In-fact positive global cues might be negative for our markets in the very short term. Why ? - Global investors who invested in emerging markets last year now have lesser risk and higher reward to invest in US and Europe since those markets seem to have bottomed out. US is quite out of the woods (results from McD, WalMart are leading indicators) and Europe's sovereign debt problems seem to have all been factored into their price - for now.

So for our markets, we are seeing some margin compression on the NIFTY -from 18 times forward we are now looking at 14-15X forward. This is expiry week so there might be wild swings, but I don't think there is upward momentum to cross 5900-6000.

Just my thoughts.

TJ

Hey TJ
No trades today ?
Are you avoiding trading due to expiry period OR waiting for RBI Policy tomorrow.

Bye

AshPats

 

[sriugdh]

Hi Sriram,

Good thoughts - but I have to disagree on taking cues from the global markets - at this point. Yes overall our markets are now quite co-related with global markets , but the current down-trend in India is based on our local macro factors (less than stellar results, political turmoil, rising commodities and oil prices).

In-fact positive global cues might be negative for our markets in the very short term. Why ? - Global investors who invested in emerging markets last year now have lesser risk and higher reward to invest in US and Europe since those markets seem to have bottomed out. US is quite out of the woods (results from McD, WalMart are leading indicators) and Europe's sovereign debt problems seem to have all been factored into their price - for now.

So for our markets, we are seeing some margin compression on the NIFTY -from 18 times forward we are now looking at 14-15X forward. This is expiry week so there might be wild swings, but I don't think there is upward momentum to cross 5900-6000.

Just my thoughts.

TJ

Very very informative. I would like to learn lots from you.
Thanks bro!

Regards,
Sriram

 

[TraderJunkie]

Hey TJ
No trades today ?
Are you avoiding trading due to expiry period OR waiting for RBI Policy tomorrow.

Bye

AshPats

Oh I did take 3 trades today . Will post the summary soon. I was just wondering if the daily summary is of any help. Because I don't want to create too much noise and garbage if it isnt of interest .

But since you ask, I will post the details soon.

Thanks,
TJ

 

[sylar123]

Oh I did take 3 trades today . Will post the summary soon. I was just wondering if the daily summary is of any help. Because I don't want to create too much noise and garbage if it isnt of interest .

But since you ask, I will post the details soon.

Thanks,
TJ

HI TJ,
Do post your trades daily. Several novices (at least me) will learn your trades .

 

[TraderJunkie]

Hi All,

Can anyone give me some view on Zerodha although i know there is one big thread already active but i believe Tj you are having one zerodha account.

Your inputs will be really appreciated.

Regards,
Pranay

Yes Pranay - I recently started using the Zerodha service for trading and so far I am happy. Why did I choose their service ? It frees my mind to take trades based only on merit and not think about cost too much.

My break even with Zerodha (for options) is generally between 0.2 - 0.3 per trade as opposed to 1.8 - 2.15 earlier. So I have more flexibility to now purchase options with lower premium since the I dont need to swing the needle 2 points 1st to make money for my broker. A whole new set of strategies have opened up due to low cost.

About the trading platform NOW and NOW EXPRESS. I won't say they are they best in class, but they do the job well. I am looking forward to some API integration so that I can start looking at doing programmed trading. That is a bit into the future though.

NOW and NOW Express do need a very stable high speed internet connection. So please invest in a good connection and I would say have a backup as well (a 3G datacard if your DSL or CABLE goes down).

So far - happy with Zerodha's low to zero cost, great customer service and a well functional software from NSE.

If you have any questions feel free to PM me

Thanks,
TJ

 

[ghosh_ak34]

Dear Friends,

For Nifty Future traders who would like to trade as per trend check strategy posted in 1st post of the thread, Nifty levels for tomorrow are as under:

Resistance at 5780
Support at 5690

If you go short 1 lot then, buy 1 lot at money or near money call and if you go long 1 lot then, buy 1 lot at money or near money put to hedge. Reco. to trade as per trend check strategy posted in 1st post of this thread.

Regards

 

[sriugdh]

Hi Sriram,

Good thoughts - but I have to disagree on taking cues from the global markets - at this point. Yes overall our markets are now quite co-related with global markets , but the current down-trend in India is based on our local macro factors (less than stellar results, political turmoil, rising commodities and oil prices).

In-fact positive global cues might be negative for our markets in the very short term. Why ? - Global investors who invested in emerging markets last year now have lesser risk and higher reward to invest in US and Europe since those markets seem to have bottomed out. US is quite out of the woods (results from McD, WalMart are leading indicators) and Europe's sovereign debt problems seem to have all been factored into their price - for now.

So for our markets, we are seeing some margin compression on the NIFTY -from 18 times forward we are now looking at 14-15X forward. This is expiry week so there might be wild swings, but I don't think there is upward momentum to cross 5900-6000.

Just my thoughts.

TJ

Hi Pros,

My estimate for Nifty tomoro is 5630 - 5645 if the RBI hikes repo and reverse repo by 50 basis points. If there is only a 25 basis point hike, there will be a mild correction may be a flat trading session. Whats ur take?

Regards,
Sriram

 

[TraderJunkie]

Here is the screenshot of the trades taken today. Overall the opening and given its expiry week and that markets have considerable shorts in it - I was not prepared to go bearish. The opening was pointing to a higher opening so I had made up my mind to go long today and was looking for enteries.

Took 3 trades (Did end up taking 1 PUT but was not comfortable so closed it out fast).

Trade 1

After the momentary gap-down markets started going up in 15 mins and that trend was holding above the 20 and 50 SMA. What does that indicate ? That on balance people are betting on NIFTY going up. So I entered at a point I thought was good enough (Shown on the chart).

BUY JAN 5600 CE @ 126.55 , COVERED AT154.25 , STOPLOSS was at 110.

Points gained 28, at the cost of 16 points -risk reward 1: 1.75

Trade 2

This is how the HUMAN MIND plays tricks. I had decided to not take a PUT trade today unless things were drastically different. They werent. But at ht higher range at 5750 I saw that NIFTY was resisting , so I took a PUT trade and was continuously uncomfortable so I just closed it.

I should not have taken this Trade I think. Anyways

BUY JAN 5800 PE @ 83 , COVERED AT 86 , STOPLOSS was at 80.

Points gained 3, at the cost of 3 points - risk reward 1:1

Trade 3

Once again found an entry (After ICICI results were ok) to go long.

BUY JAN 5600 CE @ 138. COVERED AT 147, STOPLOSS was at 130.

Points gained 9, at the cost of risk of 8 points - risk reward 1:1.

Overall I was only happy with my 1st trade. I was thinkng of carrying the 3rd trade into tomorrow - but I stuck to my rules. So no regrets if tomorrow is gap up.

Chart here...