Open Interest Analysis

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Nifty 11086(+2) BankNifty 27399(+8)

Nifty futures open interest(combined three months) went up marginally by +1.9% as expiry of January month derivative contract nears. Technically, Nifty(spot) continue to stay bullish above 10970, but may consolidate and stay volatile with positive bias in the range of 11030-11130.

OI in BankNifty continue to rise as fresh Longs are being added to February contract. BankNifty(spot) may stay bullish above 27000 levels. As tomorrow being expiry it may stay in the range of 27200-27600 with positive bias. Government’s announcement to infuse Rs 88000Crores in Public sector Banks may keep the positive momentum intact.

 

[Jayakumar.int]

Nifty 11070(-16) BankNifty 27466(+47)

Nifty futures open interest(combined three months) went up by +6.4% indicating rollover of Long positions. As there is possibility that some of the positions in January contract may left to expire in the last session, so the actual OI positions will be known in the next session. Trend for February contract would be set only after presentation of Union Budget on Feb 01, 2018.

OI in BankNifty wend down by -3.8% indicating wind up of long positions at higher levels. As couple of important economic events are lined up in the coming week, next major movement in BankNifty would be dictated based on these events.

Forthcoming Economic Events for the week:

 

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Nifty 11130(+61) BankNifty 27498(+53)

Nifty futures open interest went up by +2.2% indicating addition of Long positions as Nifty closed at its new lifetime high. Technically, Nifty(spot) would continue to stay bullish above 11000 levels. Nifty may stay volatile in the trading range of 11000-11190 ahead of Budget.

OI in BankNifty remained flat without any change indicating traders are yet to build any new positions. Technically, BankNifty(spot) may stay in a wider range of 27270-27670 levels.

 

[Jayakumar.int]

Nifty 11050 (-81) BankNifty (-229)

Nifty futures open Interest increased marginally by +0.74% indicating addition of fresh Short positions, but its not a significant addition. Technically, Nifty(spot) will continue to stay in a range of 11000-11190, any break in this range with significant addition of OI will set the next major trend.

OI in BankNifty declined by -5.2% indicating unwinding of Long positions at higher levels. Technically, BankNifty(spot) may stay with negative bias below 27550, Short term trend may be set only after Budget.

 

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Nifty 11028(-22) BankNifty (+110)

Nifty futures open Interest declined by -4.3% indicating wind up of long position ahead of Budget. In February contract there had been no significant addition of OI, as traders are cautious ahead of Budget.

OI in BankNifty continue to decline (-3.78%) amidst consolidion at higher levels. Short term trend may be set after key economic event of Budget presentation.

 

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Nifty 11017(-11) BankNifty 27221(-159)

Nifty futures open Interest declined further by -3.2% indicating wind up of long positions. Amidst high volatility on the Budget day Nifty settled flat. OI indicates traders are yet to take any clear directions. Technically, Nifty(spot) would stay weak below 11120 levels, near by support levels are 10960 and 10920 respectively.

OI in BankNifty remained flat without any change as it continue to consolidate above 27000 levels. Technically, BankNifty(spot) would stay weak below 27500 levels with nearby support at 27000-26900.

 

[Jayakumar.int]

Nifty 10761(-256) 26451(-770)

Nifty futures open Interest reduced by -4.3% that indicates windup of Long position that was rolled over from January contract. As Nifty had a gap down opening below 10950 in the last session it seems only Longs have windup with no fresh Shot positions. Technically, Nifty(spot) has weakened on closing below its 21day moving average of 10830, weakness in U.S markets may keep the market sentiment negative. Nifty(spot) may head towards 10660-10590 levels.

OI in BankNifty declined by -7.2% as Long position got windup. Technically, BankNifty(spot) would stay weak below 26750 and may head towards 26200-26000 levels.

 

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Nifty 10667(-94) BankNifty 26099(-352)

Nifty futures open Interest declined by -4.1% indicating further windup of Long positions, as Nifty had a gap down opening in the last two sessions, there are possibilities that bears are waiting for a bounce back to create fresh short positions. Technically, Nifty(spot) would stay weak below 10800 levels, but if Nifty manages to hold above 10600 then it can bounce back till 10730-10750 levels.

OI in BankNifty increased by +2.3% indicating addition of marginal Short positions. Technically, BankNifty(spot) may take support around its 50day moving average of 25880. On the upside, 26300-26350 would act as resistance.

 

[Jayakumar.int]

Nifty 10498(-168) BankNifty 25811(-287)

Nifty futures open Interest remained almost flat(-1%) in the last session. As markets were influenced by global trends it seems fresh OI positions may be created once volatility decreases from current levels. Technically, Nifty(spot) bounced from its 100day moving average of 10360 and this would be the major support in the next few sessions. Nifty is expected to stay in a wider range of 10360-10600.

OI in BankNifty stayed without much change(-1.6%) as it oscillated in a wider range of 1000 points. RBI’s meeting on monetary policy may increase volatility in the next session.

 

[Jayakumar.int]

Nifty 10477 (-22) BankNifty 25670 (-141)

Nifty futures open Interest remained flat(-0.1%) for the second straight session. Technically, Nifty(spot) would stay with negative bias below its 50day moving average of 10556, near by support levels are 10400-10350. Markets may look for cues from global markets for the next few sessions.

OI in BankNifty went up by +8.1% indicating fresh Short positions as it reacted negatively to RBI’s monetary policy. Technically, BankNifty(spot) may stay weak below 26050 levels, with nearby support at 25400-25300 levels.