Was checking the Option Chain on Nifty Oct Series since last 1 week along with the FII/DII cashflows on Nifty Derivatives. I saw (I could be wrong), FIIs were buying tons of Options , Net Short on Future, and All PE Options were OTM (8600) which were showing big spikes in OI, where as Nifty just broke over 8700 level at Spot. You dont do that few days ago of expiry, unless there is something predecided.
That's why I was very tizzy with my Positional Long (2nd one on this thread) and scratched that very next day at the first sign of problem. I am generally very relaxed with my positional ones.
Now This FII/ DII Data today
Derivative Segment:
Index Futures:
-232.18 Crs
Index Options:
764.109 Crs
Somehow this is not adding up. All I can say (not because of expiry), we are up for some fireworks pre-deewali. The Bulls will go to the dogs if it breaches 8584 - 8578 range and market does not show quick rejection.
There has been constant small bucket selling (not to create panic) -what we call Distribution by FIIs. So far there as has been Reverse Buying by DIIs, but the days both takes same line - thats it.
Tomorrow might be that day.
Will be happy to be proved wrong otherwise (considering my other instruments like MF, Ulips etc), but we are small players in the fight of these biggies.
Big money to be made on 8600 PE and CEs (one those, of course).
I am with Bears (No brainer though).