Nifty Pivot-based Mechanical Trading System coupled with 2 and 3 Day Swing Calls

[Sunil]

POSITION AS AT END OF 1-JAN-09

1. Pivot Based mechanical system (Excel file):
LONG signal, given at close of 30-Dec @ FUT 2987 / Spot 2980 maintains & continues.

2. 2 Day Swing
Current Position: LONG @ Spot 2980 on 30-Dec
New SAR = CLOSE BELOW SPOT 2937 (which is the lowest low of the last two trading sessions)

3. 3 Day Swing
Current Position: LONG @ Spot 2980 on 30-Dec
SAR = CLOSE BELOW SPOT 2900 (which is the lowest low of the last three trading sessions)


OVERALL POSITION
LONG @ closing of SPOT 2980 since 30-Dec being maintained.
Position / Signal will reverse to Short / sell if SPOT closes below 2937 on Friday 2-Jan.

 

[Sunil]

As mentioned about the importance of 2820-200 zone, I personally covered 1/4th more of short position at Spot 2820, respecting the RSR level.
Still carrying balance 1/2 short position....

Now, higher timeframes' RSIs are in neutral zone. Tomorrow's price movement will confirm a change in short term trend, or mere pullback from oversold conditions.
As aforementioned, will keep an eye on 2 key levels: SPOT 2962 & 3002

This was mentioned as at end of 29-Dec.
On hindsight, it seems closing of 1/4th more short position on intraday break of a key resistance level of Spot 2880 was not unreasonable.
That would left with me only 1/4th of balance short position, instead of 1/2.

The expectecd bounce till 2900 came 29-Dec, and 30-Dec was left as a decider day for confirmation of direction. Even the Excel Pivot system had given a Neutral signal at end of 29-Dec. Hence, a keen observation of price movement on 30-Dec was warranted.
It came in form of intraday break of Spot 2930-2900 band (ranged trades) on upside, giving me clue to reverse my balance short postions (initiated around 3060 level) to long position, at Spot 2930. (This I had mentioned in the intraday thread). The closing above Spot 2960 complimented the Long Position.

On 31-Dec & 1-Jan, the previous day's low was not threatened in any way; neither the system gave any Sell signal. Hence, the long position is still being maintained...


The almost 2day band of 2960-3000 broke yesterday, giving an immediate target of SPot 3040 (achieved yesterday). Hence, if Spot 3000-2990 breaks today on intraday basis, I may book some longs.
The rally from Spot 2813, in form of higher-highs & higher-lows, now has a trailing stop at previous higher-low (which was confirmed yesterday on break of 3000) at Spot 2937 (also, the two day swing low). Intraday break of Spot 2937 today will signal the negation of this upmove. The 20DSMA stands at 2925 as of now.

Spot 3003 was also the 5Day swing high & 61.8% of the downmove from 3110 to 2813.
Hence, it has been confirmed that the downmove was just of corrective nature.
On upside, if the inverted Head-n-Shoulders pattern with neckline at 2960 (apparent in Spot 5min chart, though may not be proper) comes into play, then we can expect a target of 2960+(2960-2810) = 2960+150 = 3110
ie retest of the previous high
Atleast this much can be expected from the bullish crossover of 20DSMA & 50DSMA.

I would be interested to see Spot 3060-70 band today.

 

[Sunil]

POSITION AS AT END OF 2-JAN-09

1. Pivot Based mechanical system (Excel file):
LONG signal, given at close of 30-Dec @ FUT 2987 / Spot 2980 maintains & continues.

2. 2 Day Swing
Current Position: LONG @ Spot 2980 on 30-Dec
New SAR = CLOSE BELOW SPOT 2963 (which is the lowest low of the last two trading sessions)

3. 3 Day Swing
Current Position: LONG @ Spot 2980 on 30-Dec
New SAR = CLOSE BELOW SPOT 2937 (which is the lowest low of the last three trading sessions)


OVERALL POSITION
LONG @ closing of SPOT 2980 since 30-Dec being maintained.
Position / Signal will reverse to Short / sell if SPOT closes below 2963 on Monday 5-Jan.

 

[Sunil]

The Excel file, attached in Post # 2 of this thread, has been updated with the latest week's data 29-Dec to 2-Jan.

Also, if someone wants to view & review the 2/3 Day Swing Signal generated over the year, then the same has been updated with Future Data. (since correct chartical spot values - as reqd. - are not available with me)
Thus, in the worksheet ""2 Day & 3 Day Swing Signals", data before 22-Dec is that of Nifty Future, while 22-Dec onwards, data will be that of Nifty Spot.

I would again like to stress that one should use the whole setup/system more as a Short term Trend-indicating Signal, rather than a solo trading system

 

[ramesh innani]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://essentialsb4uinvest.blogspot....system_12.html
USE THIS CHART FOR TRADING.

 

[Sunil]

POSITION AS AT END OF 5-JAN-09

1. Pivot Based mechanical system (Excel file):
LONG signal, given at close of 30-Dec @ FUT 2987 / Spot 2980 maintains & continues.

2. 2 Day Swing
Current Position: LONG @ Spot 2980 on 30-Dec
New SAR = CLOSE BELOW SPOT 3022 (which is the lowest low of the last two trading sessions)

3. 3 Day Swing
Current Position: LONG @ Spot 2980 on 30-Dec
New SAR = CLOSE BELOW SPOT 2963 (which is the lowest low of the last three trading sessions)


OVERALL POSITION
LONG @ closing of SPOT 2980 since 30-Dec being maintained.
Position / Signal will reverse to Short / sell if SPOT closes below 3022 on Tuesday 6-Jan.

 

[Sunil]

POSITION AS AT END OF 6-JAN-09

1. Pivot Based mechanical system (Excel file):
LONG signal, given at close of 30-Dec @ FUT 2987 / Spot 2980 maintains & continues.

2. 2 Day Swing
Current Position: LONG @ Spot 2980 on 30-Dec
New SAR = CLOSE BELOW SPOT 3056 (which is the lowest low of the last two trading sessions)

3. 3 Day Swing
Current Position: LONG @ Spot 2980 on 30-Dec
New SAR = CLOSE BELOW SPOT 3022 (which is the lowest low of the last three trading sessions)


OVERALL POSITION
LONG @ closing of SPOT 2980 since 30-Dec being maintained.
Position / Signal will reverse to Short / sell if SPOT closes below 3056 on Wednesday 7-Jan.

 

[Sunil]

Made an attempt to highlight super-RSR (resistance-support) levels of Nifty:

WHO WILL BELL THE CAT (ie the bull)

I wanted to know how far can this rally sustain? Where's the next meaningful resistance? What's does the W I D E screen view tell me?

Here's the Daily chart of last five years. I went to MS Paint, and started marking out super-key RSR levels.

I was surprised to find this sequence:
2200
2600

3200
3600

4200
4600

5200
5600

ie x200 & x600 are appearing in a sequence.
with a sole exception of 3800 which is actually a 50% FIB level - right at centre.

 

[Sunil]

Spot's EOD charts show two common LODs - 3056
Fut's EOD charts show bearish engulfing bar (outside bar) with "breaking views" (not breaking news) levels at today's HOD & LOD
In 30min/60min charts, today's LOD FUT 3057 become trend/trade reversal levels.

So, well-defined range for positional trades too...

We had a second consecutive day of Spot closing above 3100. Personally, respecting 60min's over-bought status & intraday breakout failure, I booked out half of my positional longs at around FUT 3130 level.


The short term trend is still up. The overall system & 30/60min timeframe charts suggest trend reversal on break and close below Spot 3056.
But, if seen through a wave pattern, making higher-lows higher-highs in 30min / 60min intraday charts, then the previous higher-low to be considered as trend reversal point is Spot 2937.
THIS WILL CHANGE IF SPOT MAKES A NEW HIGH ABOVE 3142, AND ONLY THEN WILL THE PREVIOUS HIGHER LOW (SAR) STATUS SHIFT TO SPOT 3056.

So, if tomorrow or later in this week, Spot breaks 3056 without making a higher high above 3142, then I may be hesitant in making a short position (or else, would do it on intraday basis only & wait to see the reaction at Spot 2937.

The intermediate trend turned up on break & close above Spot 3110. Today also, Spot also managed to close above 3110.
The ascending triangle setup, as highlighted in the above chart, is the key for the intermediate uptrend. The whole setup breaks when the prev. higher low of 2813 breaks.
Hence, I would prefer to buy on dips near support regions like Spot 2937 mentioned above.

If tomorrow, I am able to get Spot 3160-3200, then I will book profit in 1/4th more position, respecting the RSR status of 3200 band.

As Nifty Future has made an outside day today, as per textbook, FUT 3148 & 3057 are immediate breakout levels on either side.

 

[Sunil]

POSITION AS AT END OF 7-JAN-09

1. Pivot Based mechanical system (Excel file):
LONG signal, given at close of 30-Dec @ FUT 2987 / Spot 2980
reverses to
SHORT as at close of 7-Jan @ SPOT 2920 / FUT 2914

2. 2 Day Swing
Previous Signal: LONG @ Spot 2980 on 30-Dec
changes to
New Signal: SHORT as at close of 7-Jan @ SPOT 2920
SAR = CLOSE ABOVE SPOT 3147 (which is the highest high of the last two trading sessions)

3. 3 Day Swing
Previous Signal: LONG @ Spot 2980 on 30-Dec
changes to
New Signal: SHORT as at close of 7-Jan @ SPOT 2920
SAR = CLOSE ABOVE SPOT 3147 (which is the highest high of the last three trading sessions)


OVERALL POSITION
LONG @ closing of SPOT 2980 since 30-Dec
reverses to
SHORT @ closing on 7-Jan @ SPOT 2920
Signal will reverse to LONGl if SPOT closes above 3147 on Friday 9-Jan.