Nifty Pivot-based Mechanical Trading System coupled with 2 and 3 Day Swing Calls

[jstraju]

:clapping::clapping:Sunil,
waiting for views & updates,
Raju.

 

[kvram]

sunilji,please give 2,3days swinglevels as we are updating in the sheet given by you for confirmation.Thank you.

 

[Sunil]

sunilji,please give 2,3days swinglevels as we are updating in the sheet given by you for confirmation.Thank you.

A request - please avoid using "Ji"

I have updated the excel file till date.
As usual, the link to the file is mentioned in Post No. 3 of this thread.

 

[Sunil]

TRYING TO RE-OBSERVE A PREVIOUS STATISTICAL STUDY

WHO WILL BELL THE CAT (ie the bull)

I wanted to know how far can this rally sustain? Where's the next meaningful resistance? What's does the W I D E screen view tell me?

Here's the Daily chart of last five years. I went to MS Paint, and started marking out super-key RSR levels.

I was surprised to find this sequence:
2200
2600

3200
3600

4200
4600

5200
5600

ie x200 & x600 are appearing in a sequence.
with a sole exception of 3800 which is actually a 50% FIB level - right at centre.

The Latest Daily chart of Nifty:

Another Statistical study of Fibonacci - courtesy stocks.murtuza

interesting study, murtuza....
Applying same calculation for nifty from 4650 to 2250, 61.8% comes to around 3735, which also is the immediate day high after 3800 broke down.
the rectangle of 3300-3520 also has the target at 3520+220 = 3740

Spot's high as of now 3680. the end of the rally is near. Logically, 3800 is the MAX it should go upto - a goodbye kiss to the earlier multi-month support (RSR) of 3800.

If one considers the bigger rectangle of 2500-3150, then here too target comes at 3800.

 

[Sunil]

The breakout move post 3150 to achieve its natural/pattern target of 3800 has been done with two consolidation (rectangle) moves.

The first one between 3300-3500 achieved its pattern target of 3700.
The latest one between 3500-3700 has its pattern target pegged at 3900.

In the euphoric election result's move, it would be interesting to see the initial reaction at 3800-3820 zone.

Sustaining above 3820 (would be amazing) should achieve the pattern target of 3900.

A key pivot high on Daily chart above 3820 is 4000.

 

[Sunil]

The right shoulder's high of the great H&S pattern with 3800 as neckline (July 08 to Sept 08) is at 4300!!!

This 4300 is also the 50% retracement level of the entire fall from 6350 to 2250.

The recorded high of spot, as of now, is at 4270

Euphoria at its best...:lol:

no technicals/chart patterns, etc...

just like the FALL till 2250 when 3800 broke.

 

[Sunil]

Keeping aside Inside day, we have two possibilities with yesterday's High & low:

1. Bearish Double Top (NS 4675) which comes into effect on break of NS 4585
2. Potential Inv H&S with neck at NS 4675 (right shoulder in formation, and may be completed with apparent gap up opening) - Negation below NS 4615.

In both cases, we are looking at around 90 pts (!!! - boy oh boy) on break of either side.

Case 2 triggered today; ie the neck of the Inv H&S broke, but the breakout is apparently a failure.
Sticking my neck out in front of bulls & stating that this means a target of 4585-160/180pts = around 4425/4405

I have taken suitable bearish position using options...

(personal view, which may be proved wrong by market)

Nifty Spot Daily:

Nifty Spot Weekly:

Current status of the rising wedge & 20DMA:

As per theory, rising wedge gives a target of its height (highest peak less lowest trough) from the breakdown point.
Applying the same to the above chart, we get :
4470 - (4700-4100)
= 4470-600
= 3870
!!!
ie from 20DMA to 50DMA!!!!!!!

Theory should always be taken with a pinch of salt.

 

[MurAtt]

Now this is Another Huge Ask!!!

Kya baat hai --- aajkal bade se hi kaam chalta hai aapka sirjeeee

 

[scorpio77]

Hi Sunil,

As per theory, the requirements for rising wedge confirmation are

a) a fall in volumes as the wedge forms

b) Wedge formation to be below 50% Fibonacci

In this case the volumes are increasing within the wedge and the current levels are just above 50% Fibonac (have to check the Fibonac bit).

May just be a false signal. What do you feel?

Also, what if this ends up generating an ascending triangle formation, in which case it would be a continuation pattern? (hopefully)

Current status of the rising wedge & 20DMA:

As per theory, rising wedge gives a target of its height (highest peak less lowest trough) from the breakdown point.
Applying the same to the above chart, we get :
4470 - (4700-4100)
= 4470-600
= 3870
!!!
ie from 20DMA to 50DMA!!!!!!!

Theory should always be taken with a pinch of salt.

 

[Sunil]

http://www.traderji.com/trading-diary/29778-daily-tryst-nifty-29.html#post328674