Hi Everybody
I am a new member of traderji. I used to trade full-time till about 5 years ago. After this long hiatus during which I was pursuing education and work abroad, I am now returning to trading. Experience has taught me to be patient and watch the market like a hawk, but when convinced you have the pulse of the trade, don't hesitate. Stop Losses are a different matter - Over time I have stopped using hard stop loss levels, but instead rely on money management/position sizing. I have been reading this board for 2 weeks, and this is my first post.
In the past I used a combination of mostly 'screen watching' (NEAT/ODIN) and Bloomberg (available to me professionally). Now I will have ODIN and am going to deploy Amibroker to look at charts (EOD only).
I am hesitant to trade breakdowns and breakouts at this level, as they are likely to be false, even though this can only be known in retorspect. I am contemplating a trade and wanted your opinion (refer Satyajit's chart). Is there a potential double-bottom formation at 4275? If you draw a straight line through 4330 (eye-balling), it serves as an immediate upside target.
Using Fibonacci, from the high of 4630 to low of 4250, a downmove of 380 points, a 23% move takes you to 4337. If you look at the upmove from 4170 to 4630, a 75% retracement yields 4285. If 75% holds, the move back up should be fast and sharp.
In other words, I am contemplating going long at a little over 4275, targeting 4330, followed by 4337. What do you think? Or should I wait for a 100% retracement to 4170, and observe price action there before initiating a short/long position?
Thanks for your time
-parttimetrader