Hi All,
Thanks everyone for your response. I summarize below my response to various questions that have come up.
I did check my strategy against May 2015 data but it was showing possibility of two paths. It was already following the path of January 2011 but also showed the possibility of bypassing it and follow the path of June 2012. Both the cases had prediction of closure below their opening levels which happened in May 2015. For Jan 2015 I got possibility of following June 2010 and was expecting it to close below opening level but that did not happen.Since these are already closed I did not discuss of past data but wanted to discuss on currently open series.
However it is not able to identify the path for all the Nifty Series. e.g. for Nifty August 2015 series it has chartered new path from beginning and there is no co-relation to earlier series. There are similar instances in past also.
I am not tracking Bank Nifty. There are 3 reasons. (1) Historical data available for Bank Nifty is much less than that of Nifty. As this strategy is heavily dependent on Historical price data. More data means more trends and more possibility of identifying matching path. (2) Bank Nifty is high beta which I feel can be manipulated by big operators so I avoid Bank Nifty. (3) My trading account in ICICIDirect generally allows trading in bank nifty for 1 month or 2 months period only. They don't open all 3 months like it is possible for Nifty.
Also when I mention June 2015 and September 2013, I don't just mean those calendar months but I mean those series. As you are aware each series has 3 months period, so for June 2015 one should look at June 2015 series data which is for the 3 months period from April 2015 to June 2015. Similarly September 2013 series data means from July 2013 to September 2013 data.