Nifty future trend as per 1SD formula

[monkeybusiness]

If you see his calculation , it assumes volatility as 0.15.

Also the calculation beats me

Price range = 0.15*7965*sqrt(7)/sqrt(365)=192.50 ????

He is doing it in Excel, let me see if I can get it.

 

[soumyaranjanin]

The volatility I have used the volatility in year taking the Fridays 1 min data . like on Friday from 9:15 to 3:30 what is the closing of each one min candle. then I use the log value of current /previous and log square value , average log value, average log square value then I calculate variance. square root of variance is daily volatility. multiply volatility with square root of 365 I got the yearly volatility. similar AFL calculation rishi has given in this post. only difference is I have taken all 1 min closing not last 10. I have also discarded the data which produce 0.

 

[soumyaranjanin]

just take all candle closing of Friday this AFL will work

 

[amitagg]

Still 192 is confusing and figure is coming 166....

 

[soumyaranjanin]

it was a typo error 0.1765*7965*SQRT(7)/SQRT(365)=195 used in the calculation i will try to edit the post now. thnx forcorrecting me

 

[soumyaranjanin]

Re: Nifty future weekly trend as per 1SD formula from 21 to 25th September 2015

Dear Friends!

READ ALL THE Threads in this post to realize the power of mathematical trading.

Simple technique to identify the weekly trend of nifty using the volatility and 1 SD formula.
What is 1 SD formula?
Price range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) /square root of 365
Now nifty future of September 2015 expiry last recorded trade is 7965, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days.
Price range = 0.15*7965*sqrt(7)/sqrt(365)=192.50
Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle

1sdprice range 192.4829
LTP 7965
Trend expectation as per Fibonacci

0.236	46.02	8011.02	7918.98
0.382	74.49	8039.49	7890.51
0.5	97.5	8062.5	7867.5
0.618	120.51	8085.51	7844.49
0.786	153.27	8118.27	7811.73
0.888	173.16	8138.16	7791.84
1.236	241.02	8206.02	7723.98
1.618	315.51	8280.51	7649.49

Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 8011, successful cross over above 7086 will target 8138-8206-8281. Down trend conformation 7919 successful fall below 7845 will trigger fall till 7792-7724-7650.

Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 8086 and all down move invites short covering at 7845 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 8086 to 7650

What trade decision one trader should take?
a. Buying above 8011 with initial stop loss of 7919 for initial target 8085 or selling future below 7920 with stop loss 8011 for target 7845 is advisable. These levels are weekly levels and not to be used for intraday. Similar calculation you can do for intraday with daily volatility.

Regards
Ranjan

My 3rd week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved fully: it gave trend break out on Monday and achieved the final target 8057 today. Today’s high and our calculation is exactly inline.

My 2nd week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved partially: Uptrend conformation 7704, successful cross over above 7772 will target 7951. Down trend conformation 7620 successful fall below 7552 will trigger fall till 7373. –Fall happen till 7558 on 8th September. Buy trend cross over happen in 8th September and touched till 7878 close to 1.236 retracement on 11th September.

My 1st week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved successfully: Uptrend conformation 8059, successful cross over above 8161 will target 8316. Down trend conformation 7971 successful fall below 7868 will trigger fall till 7713.
Ranjan

The calculation taken from 195 not from 192. below is the correct calculation.
0.1765*7965*SQRT(7)/SQRT(365)

    1sdprice range	194.6852628	
	LTP	7965	
	Trend expectation as per fibonacci 		
0.236	46.02	8011.02	7918.98
0.382	74.49	8039.49	7890.51
0.5	97.5	8062.5	7867.5
0.618	120.51	8085.51	7844.49
0.786	153.27	8118.27	7811.73
0.888	173.16	8138.16	7791.84
1.236	241.02	8206.02	7723.98
1.618	315.51	8280.51	7649.49

 

[soumyaranjanin]

Nifty future trend for October 2015

Dear Friends!
Simple technique to identify the weekly trend of nifty using the volatility and 1 SD formula. READ ALL THE POSTS TO UNDERSTAND THE POWER OF THIS METHOD
What is 1 SD formula?
Price range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) /square root of 365
Now nifty future of October 2015 expiry last recorded trade is 7896, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days.
Price range = 0.1485*7896*sqrt(7)/sqrt(365)=162.40
Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle

 	1sdprice range	162.3814	 
 	LTP	7896	 
 	Trend expectation as per Fibonacci 	 	 
0.236	38.3264	7934.326	7857.674
0.382	62.0368	7958.037	7833.963
0.5	81.2	7977.2	7814.8
0.618	100.3632	7996.363	7795.637
0.786	127.6464	8023.646	7768.354
0.888	144.2112	8040.211	7751.789
1.236	200.7264	8096.726	7695.274
1.618	262.7632	8158.763	7633.237

Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 7934, successful cross over above 7977 will target 8023-8097-8159. Down trend conformation 7858 successful fall below 7815 will trigger fall till 7768-7695-7633.
Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 7996 and all down move invites short covering at 7796 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 7796 to 7996
What trade decision one trader should take?
a. Buying above 7934 with initial stop loss of 7858 for initial target 7996 or selling future below 7858 with stop loss 7935 for target 7795 is advisable. These levels are weekly levels and not to be used for intraday. Similar calculation you can do for intraday with daily volatility

September 2015 result analysis
My 4th week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved till 1.236 target 7724: it gave down trend break out on Tuesday and achieved the 1.236 down side target on Wednesday. Though 8011 breakout given on Tuesday opening but did not sustain.

My 3rd week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved fully: it gave trend break out on Monday and achieved the final target 8057 today. Today’s high and our calculation is exactly inline.
My 2nd week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved partially: Uptrend conformation 7704, successful cross over above 7772 will target 7951. Down trend conformation 7620 successful fall below 7552 will trigger fall till 7373. –Fall happen till 7558 on 8th September. Buy trend cross over happen in 8th September and touched till 7878 close to 1.236 retracement on 11th September.
My 1st week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved successfully: Uptrend conformation 8059, successful cross over above 8161 will target 8316. Down trend conformation 7971 successful fall below 7868 will trigger fall till 7713.

 

[PUCHU_2500]

Soumya, how I would trade with these 1SD points......pls, see my chart and give your advice.....

This is your weekly trend.....(Though differs data due to LTP of last week)

 

[soumyaranjanin]

This is a mathematical way of trading it has noting to do with the chart or candle. This is a complete different method. just follow the levels as I have given in the article. where the trend gives conformation and where the trend matures.

 

[soumyaranjanin]

Dear Friends!
Simple technique to identify the weekly trend of nifty using the volatility and 1 SD formula.
What is 1 SD formula?
Price range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) /square root of 365
Now nifty future of October 2015 expiry last recorded trade is 7896, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days.

Price range = 0.1470*7974*sqrt(7)/sqrt(365)=162.30
Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle 
 	1sdprice range	162.329	 
 	LTP	7974	 
 	Trend expectation as per Fibonacci 	 	 
0.236	38.30964758	8012.31	7935.69
0.382	62.0096838	8036.01	7911.99
0.5	81.16450759	8055.165	7892.835
0.618	100.3193314	8074.319	7873.681
0.786	127.5906059	8101.591	7846.409
0.888	144.1481655	8118.148	7829.852
1.236	200.6386628	8174.639	7773.361
1.618	262.6483465	8236.648	7711.352

Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 8012, successful cross over above 8055 will target 8074-8175-8237. Down trend conformation 7936 successful fall below 7893 will trigger fall till 7874-7773-7711.
Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 8074 and all down move invites short covering at 7874 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 7874 to 8074
What trade decision one trader should take?
a. Buying above 8012 with initial stop loss of 7936 for initial target 8074 or selling future below 7936 with stop loss 8012 for target 7874 is advisable. These levels are weekly levels and not to be used for intraday. Similar calculation you can do for intraday with daily volatility.
Regards
Ranjan

My 1st week view of October 2015 expiry as per the 1 SD formula which was partially achived: Downtrend conformation 7857 given on Monday and achieved 7705 close near to 1.236 retracement on Tuesday, 7934 uptrend crossover happen on Tuesday and achieved till 8037 close near to 0.888 retracement.