Nifty future trend as per 1SD formula

[soumyaranjanin]

Dear Friends!
Simple technique to identify the weekly trend of nifty using the volatility and 1 SD formula.
What is 1 SD formula?
Price range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) /square root of 365
Now nifty future of September 2015 expiry last recorded trade is 7662, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days.
Price range = 0.1682*7662*sqrt(7)/sqrt(365)=178.47
Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle

1SD price range 178.4723
LTP 7662
Trend expectation as per Fibonacci
0.236 42.10712 7704.107 7619.893
0.382 68.15644 7730.156 7593.844
0.5 89.21 7751.21 7572.79
0.618 110.26356 7772.264 7551.736
0.786 140.23812 7802.238 7521.762
0.888 158.43696 7820.437 7503.563
1.236 220.52712 7882.527 7441.473
1.618 288.68356 7950.684 7373.316


Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 7704, successful cross over above 7772 will target 7951. Down trend conformation 7620 successful fall below 7552 will trigger fall till 7373.
Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 7772 and all down move invites short covering at 7552 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 7772 to 7552
What trade decision one trader should take?
a. Buying above 7704 with initial stop loss of 7619 for initial target 7773 or selling future below 7619 with stop loss 7704 for target 7552 is advisable.

My last week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved successfully: Uptrend conformation 8059, successful cross over above 8161 will target 8316. Down trend conformation 7971 successful fall below 7868 will trigger fall till 7713.

 

[Rish]

Dear Friends!
Simple technique to identify the weekly trend of nifty using the volatility and 1 SD formula.
What is 1 SD formula?
Price range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) /square root of 365
Now nifty future of September 2015 expiry last recorded trade is 7662, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days.
Price range = 0.1682*7662*sqrt(7)/sqrt(365)=178.47
Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle

1SD price range 178.4723
LTP 7662
Trend expectation as per Fibonacci
0.236 42.10712 7704.107 7619.893
0.382 68.15644 7730.156 7593.844
0.5 89.21 7751.21 7572.79
0.618 110.26356 7772.264 7551.736
0.786 140.23812 7802.238 7521.762
0.888 158.43696 7820.437 7503.563
1.236 220.52712 7882.527 7441.473
1.618 288.68356 7950.684 7373.316


Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 7704, successful cross over above 7772 will target 7951. Down trend conformation 7620 successful fall below 7552 will trigger fall till 7373.
Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 7772 and all down move invites short covering at 7552 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 7772 to 7552
What trade decision one trader should take?
a. Buying above 7704 with initial stop loss of 7619 for initial target 7773 or selling future below 7619 with stop loss 7704 for target 7552 is advisable.

My last week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved successfully: Uptrend conformation 8059, successful cross over above 8161 will target 8316. Down trend conformation 7971 successful fall below 7868 will trigger fall till 7713.

Regards
Ranjan
ceo smart finance

Good...Based on one week achievement..we can't take this as a solid method...not to criticise the method...

Because,in your earlier volatility method (10 days Daily) lot of whipsaws i have seen, hence, this caution.

Let us analyse it next 3 or 4 week in the running market.

 

[rajesh0000]

Ranjan
@ceo smart finance

Is it possible to backtest this hypo or has any such been done and is it available for sharing.
The volatility is it IV or historical.

Thanks
Rajesh

 

[Rish]

Is it possible to backtest this hypo or has any such been done and is it available for sharing.
The volatility is it IV or historical.

Thanks
Rajesh

I hope i have the AFL of his daily volatility method, which is common in Europe. I hope i have posted already somewhere in traderji.

 

[soumyaranjanin]

1 standard deviation formula used by many across the globe to identify the trend . Hence just test it with Fibonacci to know its accuracy.

 

[Rish]

Dear Friends!
Simple technique to identify the weekly trend of nifty using the volatility and 1 SD formula.
What is 1 SD formula?
Price range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) /square root of 365
Now nifty future of September 2015 expiry last recorded trade is 7662, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days.
Price range = 0.1682*7662*sqrt(7)/sqrt(365)=178.47
Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle

1SD price range 178.4723
LTP 7662
Trend expectation as per Fibonacci
0.236 42.10712 7704.107 7619.893
0.382 68.15644 7730.156 7593.844
0.5 89.21 7751.21 7572.79
0.618 110.26356 7772.264 7551.736
0.786 140.23812 7802.238 7521.762
0.888 158.43696 7820.437 7503.563
1.236 220.52712 7882.527 7441.473
1.618 288.68356 7950.684 7373.316


Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 7704, successful cross over above 7772 will target 7951. Down trend conformation 7620 successful fall below 7552 will trigger fall till 7373.
Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 7772 and all down move invites short covering at 7552 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 7772 to 7552
What trade decision one trader should take?
a. Buying above 7704 with initial stop loss of 7619 for initial target 7773 or selling future below 7619 with stop loss 7704 for target 7552 is advisable.

My last week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved successfully: Uptrend conformation 8059, successful cross over above 8161 will target 8316. Down trend conformation 7971 successful fall below 7868 will trigger fall till 7713.

Regards
Ranjan
ceo smart finance

Last week outcome, if possible can u post please ?

 

[soumyaranjanin]

Dear Friends!
Simple technique to identify the weekly trend of nifty using the volatility and 1 SD formula.
What is 1 SD formula?
Price range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) /square root of 365
Now nifty future of September 2015 expiry last recorded trade is 7662, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days.
Price range = 0.156*7785*sqrt(7)/sqrt(365)=178.47
Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle

1sdprice range 168.1844
LTP 7785
Trend expectation as per fibonacci
1sdprice range 168.1844
LTP 7785
Trend expectation as per fibonacci

0.236	 39.69048	7824.69	7745.31
0.382 64.24476	7849.245	7720.755
0.5	84.09	        7869.09	7700.91
0.618	103.93524	7888.935	7681.065
0.786	132.18948	7917.189	7652.811
0.888	149.34384	7934.344	7635.656
1.236	207.87048	7992.87	7577.13
1.618	272.11524	8057.115	7512.885

Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 7825, successful cross over above 7869 will target 7889-7934-8057. Down trend conformation 7743 successful fall below 7701 will trigger fall till 7681-7635-7513.
Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 7889 and all down move invites short covering at 7681 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 7889 to 7681
What trade decision one trader should take?
a. Buying above 7827 with initial stop loss of 7743 for initial target 7895 or selling future below 7743 with stop loss 7827 for target 7674 is advisable. These levels are weekly levels and not to be used for intraday. Similar calculation you can do for intraday with daily volatility.

My 2nd week of September view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved partially: Uptrend conformation 7704, successful cross over above 7772 will target 7951. Down trend conformation 7620 successful fall below 7552 will trigger fall till 7373. –Fall happen till 7558 on 8th September. Buy trend cross over happen in 8th September and touched till 7878 close to 1.236 retracement on 11th September.

My 1st week of September view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved successfully: Uptrend conformation 8059, successful cross over above 8161 will target 8316. Down trend conformation 7971 successful fall below 7868 will trigger fall till 7713.
Regards
Ranjan
CEO, smart finance

 

[agos]

Thanks for sharing the 1 SD formula.Much appreciated!!!
I guess, Sir , it should be suc x-ver above 7889 (0.618 fib level) and not 7869 for uptrend conf, as mentioned in your post. Please correct.
Also, when you say suc x-over is it on eod closing basis.Please confirm.

 

[soumyaranjanin]

Thanks for sharing the 1 SD formula.Much appreciated!!!
I guess, Sir , it should be suc x-ver above 7889 (0.618 fib level) and not 7869 for uptrend conf, as mentioned in your post. Please correct.
Also, when you say suc x-over is it on eod closing basis.Please confirm.

you can use any one 0.618 or 0.5 . if you anticipate wild volatility you can use 0.618 else you can use 0.5. both approach is correct but majority of people use 0.618

 

[soumyaranjanin]

Nifty future weekly trend as per 1SD formula from 21 to 25th September 2015

Dear Friends!

READ ALL THE Threads in this post to realize the power of mathematical trading.

Simple technique to identify the weekly trend of nifty using the volatility and 1 SD formula.
What is 1 SD formula?
Price range= (Price * volatility * square root of day) /square root of 365
Now nifty future of September 2015 expiry last recorded trade is 7965, we are going to find the weekly trend hence days will be 7 calendar days.
Price range = 0.15*7965*sqrt(7)/sqrt(365)=192.50
Trend identification as per Fibonacci principle

1sdprice range 192.4829
LTP 7965
Trend expectation as per Fibonacci

0.236	46.02	8011.02	7918.98
0.382	74.49	8039.49	7890.51
0.5	97.5	8062.5	7867.5
0.618	120.51	8085.51	7844.49
0.786	153.27	8118.27	7811.73
0.888	173.16	8138.16	7791.84
1.236	241.02	8206.02	7723.98
1.618	315.51	8280.51	7649.49

Trend expectation as per volatility: Uptrend conformation 8011, successful cross over above 7086 will target 8138-8206-8281. Down trend conformation 7919 successful fall below 7845 will trigger fall till 7792-7724-7650.

Range bound trend identification: if all up move invites sale above 8086 and all down move invites short covering at 7845 level this indication is sufficient to conclude that the price action is in the range of 8086 to 7650

What trade decision one trader should take?
a. Buying above 8011 with initial stop loss of 7919 for initial target 8085 or selling future below 7920 with stop loss 8011 for target 7845 is advisable. These levels are weekly levels and not to be used for intraday. Similar calculation you can do for intraday with daily volatility.

Regards
Ranjan

My 3rd week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved fully: it gave trend break out on Monday and achieved the final target 8057 today. Today’s high and our calculation is exactly inline.

My 2nd week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved partially: Uptrend conformation 7704, successful cross over above 7772 will target 7951. Down trend conformation 7620 successful fall below 7552 will trigger fall till 7373. –Fall happen till 7558 on 8th September. Buy trend cross over happen in 8th September and touched till 7878 close to 1.236 retracement on 11th September.

My 1st week view as per the 1 SD formula which was achieved successfully: Uptrend conformation 8059, successful cross over above 8161 will target 8316. Down trend conformation 7971 successful fall below 7868 will trigger fall till 7713.
Ranjan