NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

If the market is a battleground between the weak hands and strong hands, it does seem as if currently its the weak hands that are holding long positions on the Nifty in a speculative manner. They dont have the wherewithal to push the action to higher grounds, but are keeping the index in a trading range.
The proceedings get volatile at higher levels, rapidly lose the lead from there, and then comes the buying support lower down.
This cannot last too long, as anytime now, the cracks would begin to appear. With the movement witnessed for the last couple of weeks, panic selling can set in at the break of a couple of important triggers.
For the upside to happen, its the turn of the strong hands to move in at this point.
The proceedings are interestingly, and even more than a tad threateningly poised at the current levels.
More than this there is nothing to say, as the strength has been repeatedly tested right down to 2725 recently and found to be intact so far, and there is still no buying support still on the horizon at 2850 plus.

As I had in a post in mid December called for some significant activity for today, January 3, Im pulling this out now. The levels which were mentioned were 2866 and 2917.
The standards set for significant moves so far for the other dates have been in the range of 30-35 points each.
Ive had difficulties with calling the direction of the moves, and Im not going to venture into that this morning. Things are too delicately poised, even if the close at 2835 last night retains some semblance of an advantage to favour a move to the up.

For the Nifty to move higher its vital to take and hold 2841 and then 2849.
2837 and 2839 are the levels on the way to 2841, and past this 2843 and 2845 to 2849.
2852-2855-2858-2861 are the levels if 2866 or thereabouts is attempted.
Supports are at 2833-2830-2828-2826.
Will post some more shortly.

Below 2825 is the band at 2823-2821-2819-2817-2814 and back at 2810.

 

[srisara]

looks like today will show the path for Nifty for the future. If Nifty props up and starts to gain, it will start hurting Bears very dearly. Looks like Bears were consolidating in the last few seesions.

That will further push the Bears to cover short their poistions and turn bullish eventually.

Let's Hope Nifty pushes higher, as of now evenly balanced.

Satya

 

[AMITBE]

As I had in a post in mid December called for some significant activity for today, January 3, Im pulling this out now. The levels which were mentioned were 2866 and 2917.
The standards set for significant moves so far for the other dates have been in the range of 30-35 points each.
Ive had difficulties with calling the direction of the moves, and Im not going to venture into that this morning. Things are too delicately poised, even if the close at 2835 last night retains some semblance of an advantage to favour a move to the up.

For the Nifty to move higher its vital to take and hold 2841 and then 2849.
2837 and 2839 are the levels on the way to 2841, and past this 2843 and 2845 to 2849.
2852-2855-2858-2861 are the levels if 2866 or thereabouts is attempted.
Supports are at 2833-2830-2828-2826.
Will post some more shortly.

At this point Im raising some interesting possibilities going ahead.
2866 and 2917 are coming up as levels where we may see an important event on the Niftya possible reversal?
There are two sets of dates coming up:
December 23 and 29.
January 3 and 6, 2006.
I may be jumping the gun big time, but this is my work in progress, you see.

So the above post from Dec 19 has come good for today as well...and to the up.
The high so far was 2864.50, pretty darn close to 2866. And if these levels are held and upper ones attempted further, 2868 is important to cross first, then 2871. This is for today.

 

[AMITBE]

So the above post from Dec 19 has come good for today as well...and to the up.
The high so far was 2864.50, pretty darn close to 2866. And if these levels are held and upper ones attempted further, 2868 is important to cross first, then 2871. This is for today.

2874 is likely, and if so, 2877-2780 may be the range at this point, though pushing things quite far.

 

[Saint]

2874 is likely, and if so, 2877-2780 may be the range at this point, though pushing things quite far.

2883 and still going,.......nice moves today(if long that is).

Saint

 

[srisara]

2874 is likely, and if so, 2877-2780 may be the range at this point, though pushing things quite far.

Amit,

very nice move today from the NIFTY.

and also, great posts and analysis from you. like to hear more from you

Satya

 

[AMITBE]

2874 is likely, and if so, 2877-2780 may be the range at this point, though pushing things quite far.

With 20 minutes to go, if 2884 is taken then why not 2888.
2892 would be amazing still.

 

[AMITBE]

Looks a pretty and a perfect picture doesnt it.
Market depth as deep as deep can be, a/d ratio leading by a vast margin in favour of the bulls, volumes not too bad, all the indexes rallying, all the caps small, mid and large partying along, etc etc.
And with strong buying right to the last minute, the Nifty should be looking to touching base with a new bull orbit above 2900 quite early in the day.
If 2900 plus levels are sustained regardless of profit booking at higher levels and volatility, that would lend legitimacy to the move.
Nothing more to say on this.

But on a note of caution and apprehensionplease folks, be extremely careful in stock selection and going long at these levels.
Historical peaks have always been known to demand a test by fire before they surrender their exclusivity.
Expect volatility in both directions.

The stage is set for probing higher levels.
The inverse corollary of this is, new supports would also be put through the reality test along the way.
At this point this second factor is of greater pertinence for me.
In the struggle for scaling higher levels, the strength that would relentlessly be referenced lies at lower levels.
Simply, that is the natural order of all things.

To go back to the turning point or the centrifugal theory here, the readers would remember 2799 quite vividly Im sure.
Looking for another such point, two candidates in the running are 2877 and 2889. The next few sessions would nail the issue.
Amongst the long term important levels above 2832-2843-2854 (quite familiar by now), are 2865 and 2877. These would form the immediate supports in the near term, and previous lower ones mentioned above are included too.
To the up, the important long term levels are 2889-2901-2913-2925-2937 for now.
Im sure well be referring to these along the way from here.

In the short term, the levels to the up are 2888-2892-2896.
2896 is important to hold for a move to 2898-2900-2902-2904-2906-2908.
2900 is important and then 2908-2912.
2917 would form the range at this point.

Lower, the supports are at 2882-2880-2877-2874-2871-2868.
2862 could be a strong bottom.

 

[AMITBE]

In the short term, the levels to the up are 2888-2892-2896.
2896 is important to hold for a move to 2898-2900-2902-2904-2906-2908.
2900 is important and then 2908-2912.
2917 would form the range at this point.

Lower, the supports are at 2882-2880-2877-2874-2871-2868.
2862 could be a strong bottom.

At this point the trading band that seems to have been formed is 2889-2891-2893-2897-2901-2903-2905-2907-2910.
Below 2883 the levels are given above.

 

[AMITBE]

At this point the trading band that seems to have been formed is 2889-2891-2893-2897-2901-2903-2905-2907-2910.
Below 2883 the levels are given above.

Thrice today the Nifty has reacted at 2902, and up there again.
It's looking tired to me at this point so be cautious.