NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

Amit,

looks like a Double Top at 2846? Could that have impact tomorrow?

Satya

Hi Satya...yes a double top at 2846, and no, no impact of this tomorrow, whatever tomorrow brings.
This was just intraday, and the double top would come into play on longer term charts and could take days or weeks forming.
Thanks.

 

[AMITBE]

The other date given was today, Monday Dec 19.
And if the adage that no one buys strong on Friday to squander the lead first thing in the new week is true, it adds credence to today being another gain day, however significant the move.

Here Id want to return to my favourite harp and go back to another post from Friday on the turning point for the Nifty, and the centrifugal law quoted as a metaphor at the risk of sounding like a stoned hippy (for it generated a nil for response).
The idea being explored there is, the difficult level at 2799 as the pivot center has spun the Nifty towards 2764 to one direction, and 2821 in the other. The turbulent volatility in either direction is likened to the velocity of the spin. Considering the price action of the Nifty over the past week, the physical law being invoked here would lead to the assumption that now the Nifty is exerting an acute pressure against the pivot center to break away from it with force.
The various points discussed above do suggest that the direction of the breakout is to the up.
If the contrary be the case, today will show it.
If this is a lateral kind of Technical Analysis, I feel self-assured that it has its high merit in the scheme of things I have been exploring for some time now.

To go on to the levels:
It has been mentioned earlier that 2822-2832 may see intense activity.
If we get that far, some important levels along the way would be 2813-2818-2822-2826-2829.
If 2832 is taken with more left on the table, 2843 is the next potential level. And then 2848 and 2854.
When and if we get there, Ill post the levels as we go along the journey there.

Well, returning to my favourite harp yet again, it needed another close above 2799 for the Nifty to finally snap away from it with force. It was a 36 point rally at one point and ended with a gain of 32 points.
The two days mentioned, Friday last and today, stood well to the test with the Nifty clocking about 32 points each day.

As suggested in an earlier post when the Nifty had fallen sharply off 2846 that another attempt would be made at the higher levels in the last part of the session, a later charge was indeed made and got as far as 2846 at about 3.15.
2842.60 close fell a wee bit short of 2843.

The intraday chart is attached showing the various levels written earlier: 2829-2832-2836-2838-2840-2843.

 

[nkpanjiyar]

Oh...and NK...just noticed your use of the word 'prediction'!
What, you think I have the latest edition of Nostradamus's advanced works on the Indian Capital Markets in my position?!

Just for you Amit, I want to quote(very dear to me):

"In the Words of, Leo Rosten , "A writer writes not because he is educated but because he is driven by the need to communicate. Behind the need to communicate is the need to share. Behind the need to share is the need to be understood. The writer wants to be understood much more than he wants to be respected or praised or even loved. And that perhaps, is what makes him different from others." As a person, sometimes I really feel that "Expectations are every where", but that is a way of life."

I admire you & saint very much for your knowledge sharing.

In the language of CMMI if system and process is able to repeat based on some measured quantity and continuously optimized for better results the process is operating at higher Maturity level called level 5 in software parlance. Am amazed by the way Nifty is coming close to the number you analysed. Fantastic!!! Who knows you may be the emerging Nostradamus of capital market. I want to capture these moments for my grandchildrens stating I had live interaction with Nostradamus of capital market

Thanks,
nkpanjiyar

 

[chopra]

Fantastic!!! Who knows you may be the emerging Nostradamus of capital market. I want to capture these moments for my grandchildrens stating I had live interaction with Nostradamus of capital market

baazeechaa-e-atfaal hai duniya tere aage
hota hai shab-o-roz tamaasha tere aage

Anyway, long time no see?
Been missing all the Urdu Shaeri, friend.

muddat huee hai yaar ko mehmaan kiye hue
josh-e-qadah se bazm chiraaghaan kiye hue

Cheers,
Ashish

 

[AMITBE]

We are now certainly up in some pretty scary territory at these high levels with valid grave doubts being raised about the valuations of most frontline counters in the index that are driving up the markets, and also that of scores of others outside of it.
Its the FIIs all the way, being the deepest pockets around, and being the primary market movers for quite some time.
At some point soon, lets be prepared for some serious profit booking. Adhere sharp to the golden and unfailing technique of the stop loss.
Just ahead of the third quarter results season, the players who have raked in big time over the last several weeks would logically take their money and run, and yes return they will for a new round of the rally later, but why suffer in the meantime.
This does not suggest that the market is about to tank and there wouldnt be some more gains in the index in the near term.
And how much is some more?
Impossible to say, but there is something to be said for certain psychological marks, like round figures.
Like 2900 or thereabouts on the Nifty which roughly corresponds to about 9500 on the Sensex?
Be whatever it may be, lets just be very cautious.

On to the numbers, there were a few pretty solid blind spots along the rise of the Nifty yesterday.
From 2810 it shot up into the 2830s in one go, with the area at 2813-2822-2833 completely ignored.
Some important numbers cannot easily be ignored and there is a good chance these would be revisited at some point to fill the gaps, if not today then soon enough.
Without testing the strength here, the onwards march would be pretty wooly at these already dizzy levels.
Even though the Nifty had another strong close yesterday, there was a sharp fallout in the a/d ratio right at the end.
Its not an easy call to make today, but certainly expect volatility which has been absent the last two sessions.
To the up, the levels are 2848-2854-2860 for now. Will add more later if need be.
On the down, 2838-2833-2828-2823.

 

[srisara]

Amit is rocking here..............

 

[AMITBE]

Just for you Amit, I want to quote(very dear to me):

"In the Words of, Leo Rosten , "A writer writes not because he is educated but because he is driven by the need to communicate. Behind the need to communicate is the need to share. Behind the need to share is the need to be understood. The writer wants to be understood much more than he wants to be respected or praised or even loved. And that perhaps, is what makes him different from others." As a person, sometimes I really feel that "Expectations are every where", but that is a way of life."

I admire you & saint very much for your knowledge sharing.

In the language of CMMI if system and process is able to repeat based on some measured quantity and continuously optimized for better results the process is operating at higher Maturity level called level 5 in software parlance. Am amazed by the way Nifty is coming close to the number you analysed. Fantastic!!! Who knows you may be the emerging Nostradamus of capital market. I want to capture these moments for my grandchildrens stating I had live interaction with Nostradamus of capital market

Thanks,
nkpanjiyar

Hi Nk...I'm very elated that you quoted Leo Rosten for me! Thanks very much. You are indeed a sensitive soul with a panoramic horizon and certainly at level 5 and more.
Nostradamus of the capital markets? Nah...no way.
I'm just trying to figure things out conceptually using a rather lateral route which in the conventional number crunching/charting mode of TA is often sadly neglected.
And don't you go telling tall tales to your grandchildren.
Cos why?
Cos they'll decidedly give you back another from Leo Rosten:
I NEVER CEASE BEING DUMBFOUNDED BY THE UNBELIEVABLE THINGS PEOPLE BELIEVE!

 

[AMITBE]

On to the numbers, there were a few pretty solid blind spots along the rise of the Nifty yesterday.
From 2810 it shot up into the 2830s in one go, with the area at 2813-2822-2833 completely ignored.
Some important numbers cannot easily be ignored and there is a good chance these would be revisited at some point to fill the gaps, if not today then soon enough.


To the up, the levels are 2848-2854-2860 for now. Will add more later if need be.
On the down, 2838-2833-2828-2823.

Well...a sensible move this is indeed.
With the blind band being tested, now the Nifty may look to pending matters if any to the up in due course.
As 2823 has come under severe fire, 2817-2814 are further spots to be filled.
In case of a stronger pull, we're back at 2810.
Below this we would be going back towards 2799 again via 2804.

The centrifugal theory been harped on till yesterday is not valid any longer in my scheme of thigs here.
That's over and done with.
At this point we are looking to Newton's action and reaction take.
Retracement is what TAs should be calling it.
For me, filling important vacant levels that the Nifty left behind in its wake on the way up, is more like it.
And the volatility mentioned in the first post this morning was quite expected.

 

[AMITBE]

baazeechaa-e-atfaal hai duniya tere aage
hota hai shab-o-roz tamaasha tere aage
Cheers,
Ashish

Is that right?
And why not raise it a notch with:

Hota hai nihaan gard mein sehara mere hote
Ghisata hai jabeen khaak pe dariya mere aage

Or even better with:

Ik khel hai aurang-e-sulemaan mere nazdeek
Ik baat hai eijaz-e-maseeha mere aage


Lekin bhai, is nacheez ko itna bada muqam na do.

Ki main...

Duniya main hoon duniya ka talabgaar nahin hoon
Bazar se guzraa hoon khareedaar nahin hoon

Thanks and cheers, Ashish.

 

[AMITBE]

Well...a sensible move this is indeed.
With the blind band being tested, now the Nifty may look to pending matters if any to the up in due course.
As 2823 has come under severe fire, 2817-2814 are further spots to be filled.
In case of a stronger pull, we're back at 2810.
Below this we would be going back towards 2799 again via 2804.

The low at 2815 off so far has been filled yet which is as good as 2814.
Quite a volatile numbers grind it has been all day.
At this point we've been trading in a tight band between 2838 and 2833 which is getting tighter and there is every possibility of a breakout of sorts.
At 2835 now.