NIFTY FIFTY

[AMITBE]

To one's amusement, the term doing the rounds is 'induced correction', as in induced lobour.
There has been a lot of sword rattling from the PMO down to SEBI, with manipulation being thrown around as a possible cause for the current rally.
Now, this rally is over two years old, so what do we have to say for that? Are all the traders and investors a flock of blind owls?
Is the suspicion only limited to the runaway penny and small counters, or do the front line counters too reek of foul play?
These are some of the issues that the authorities need to articulate with clarity, in order to not throw panic into the hearts of the investing, trading community.
But the govt. has it's own political imperatives perhaps, with the Left parties screaming foul play.

As I had written this morning, the culprit as always is the knee jerk reaction from the govt. that has been behind this panic and the subsequent carnage.
The FIIs are very bullish still but have been scared away on the news of raids on brokerage companies etc. The reports on the PMO calling a meeting, and the scolding voices emnating from SEBI have all done the trick for the market.
And now I can bet my bottom buck, that they will all be screaming denails, and saying the fundaments of the India Inc. are great and the mood is upbeat, that there is no suspicion of foul play, that they were merely cautioning the public, and what have you.
What a bloody way of doing this induced correction thing.
Shameful to say the least.

 

[bmcg]

Dear Amitbe,

I have been reading your recommendations time and again on the board and apparently you are a very knowledgable and well informed analyst. Perhaps better than what the Funds and FII's boast of.

I have just only started playing in the market.Could I get your views on Tata Motors and Tata Tea. Motors closed at 499.50 today. Also, I think the market free fall was more to do wth the herd mentality rather than any concrete reason. Would like to have your feedback as to how you foresee the session tomorrow and what scrips in A group are worth the exposure now.

Thanks

Bmcg

 

[Saint]

As I had written this morning, the culprit as always is the knee jerk reaction from the govt. that has been behind this panic and the subsequent carnage.
The FIIs are very bullish still but have been scared away on the news of raids on brokerage companies etc. The reports on the PMO calling a meeting, and the scolding voices emnating from SEBI have all done the trick for the market.
And now I can bet my bottom buck, that they will all be screaming denails, and saying the fundaments of the India Inc. are great and the mood is upbeat, that there is no suspicion of foul play, that they were merely cautioning the public, and what have you.
What a bloody way of doing this induced correction thing.
Shameful to say the least.

The so-called blood letting turned out to be a heammorhage..........hope this area holds for some time,and we see higher prices again.

Saint

 

[Bleu]

How about a conspiracy theory ? Are some operators working hand in glove with some in the government/regulators?

 

[srisara]

Hi All,

There was so much to read to today, also missed on the market as i was busy. Hope to catch up one day.

Great analysis from Amit and Saint.. Keep going friends.

Satya

 

[chennamsetty]

I Have Just Started Nifty Analysis The Enclosed Nifty Weekly Chart Shows A Strong Suppost At 23.6% Retracement Level From This Wave The Retracement Level Is Placed At 2425 Points.
Especially Those Having Options Expiring This Month Can Close Their Positions At This Level.

In The Previous Wave Ot Has Pulled Back From 23.6% Level And Again Fell And Went Up From 38.2% Level

Hope This Will Repeat This Time Too

Comments From Amitee And S.members Awaited

Where Are You Sh 50 And Cv Missing You A Lot R U Busy In Making Money In This Bull Run

THIS IS FIRST TIME I AM UPLOADING A FILE KINDLY SOME BODY SUGGEST A BETTER WAY OTHER THAN THIS

 

[AMITBE]

Hello chennamsetty...
Thanks for your input, though I was unable to open the file.
I'm not sure of your chart, though from my data on the NIFTY I see strong supports at the 2450 then 2440 and then at 2430 levels. Close enough to what's been suggested by you, should it be pushed so deep.

In the wider picture, I am not at all convinced that the correction today was entirely an organic one. Though it was expected, and even desired, but not like this. There has surely been a mess up at the governmental front as has been suggested earlier. The abrupt proposal of putting cuircuit levels, the ominous remarks from the SEBI, the emergency meetings at the PMO which are of course being denied, and finally the IT raids this afternoon, all of these have struck panic into the market.
In fact, till the 2525 levels there was a good deal of buying returning at a lot of the bullish counters. The new of the raids started then. So what does the market make of all this? That something is really wrong somewhere. That's when the frenzied selling started. Those trying to stop the slide worked hard at 2500 where several times the NIFTY attempted a recovery, but then the sentiment had turned deeply fearful by then.
As has been rightly said, the noises emanating from the aothorities have been more in the form of disclaimers. Like don't blame us if a scam is discovered, we put out enough warnings.
The other factor is the Left factor. These parties have been screaming murder for a while now watching this rally, and as the vital constituent of the govt, this section has always to be appeased. Whether it's disinvestment or divestment or oil prices, LPG, whatever.
All of the above could have been done in a cool and judicious manner, and not today, but a month or more ago. Laying the blame on the runaway penny and small counters so late in the day just does not hold water.
I do hope that over night some sane voices will be heard to calm the market so that its own intrinsic forces can prevail from here on.
Regards.

 

[phoenix]

Like Amit said some posts ago,time for caution.........Time for profits and hold the rest,and get ready for some correction.But not the time to go gung ho and buy like crazy.......once agin,time for CAUTION!...not saying to sell everything,not saying that it's time to short,I believe it's time to take profits,and sit on your hands!

Saint

Not much to say here. All that has to be said has been done already.
Even so, one must remember just one word: CAUTION.

Amit

Great timing,guys........think many here benefitted from those warnings!!

Thanks!!

Phoenix

 

[AMITBE]

One hopes that more than a little sanity would prevail from here on.
If the market needs to correct further, let it do so in an orderly fashion without hitting panic buttons.
For now it seems the momentum to the up has been snapped, and as the memories of the last two sessions would linger in the hearts of the players, one may expect bouts of selling at every rise. This points to volatility.
Volatility in itself is one of the many faces of the market, and there is nothing negative about it as such. What we do want however, is stablity.
There is a difference between the two. Volatility implies fierce tugs and pulls in either direction.
Stablity, or a lack of it more importantly, would deny to the market, comfort zones and trading ranges within which to play out all the drama.
So, let us hope for stblity more than anything. I am not too concerned with the probability of a rise from here, or further correction. Stablity is what is desired.

As there has been a filling of the gaps the NIFTY left behind, it may seek higher levels.
The supports are at 2440-2445-2453, and below this a sharp fall again.
To the up it is important to cross 2507 and stay above this.
2525 would take us back out into the safe orbit again.
Will update.

 

[AMITBE]

Great timing,guys........think many here benefitted from those warnings!!
Thanks!! Phoenix

Hey phoenix...thanks to you too and all the members who are playing the game right. That's what we need at this great forum.
Cheers.