NIFTY FIFTY

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AMITBE

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AMITBE said:
The fall is quick...and 2485 is most important now. Yesterday's low at 2477, then yesterday's low support at 2473 which was not tested would be next levels.
Not saying it could go that deep, only giving levels for info.
Made a double top at 2510-2511 a while ago and then the sharp drop.
Holding up on a bounce at 2490 for now, and making lower highs and lows.
Lower highs and lows are the order for now.
Not to worry those holding strong fundament/tech scrips, if s/l not triggered yet ..I'm holding some and exited some a few days ago.
Let's learn from all this: Great example of a rapidly sinking NIFTY intraday chart showing the tugs and pulls...double tops, lower highs and lows, resilience or the lack of it at support resistance levels etc.
 

AMITBE

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AMITBE said:
Lower highs and lows are the order for now.
Not to worry those holding strong fundament/tech scrips, if s/l not triggered yet ..I'm holding some and exited some a few days ago.
Let's learn from all this: Great example of a rapidly sinking NIFTY intraday chart showing the tugs and pulls...double tops, lower highs and lows, resilience or the lack of it at support resistance levels etc.
Below 2480-2475, the selling pressure would mount. Trigger stop levels there if anyone so wishes. Get in again later.
 

AMITBE

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AMITBE said:
Below 2480-2475, the selling pressure would mount. Trigger stop levels there if anyone so wishes. Get in again later.
Very close so watch. Below 2473, if not at 2475 it could go faster or even bounce back a little.
 
AMIT,

we good analysis from you in relation to NIFTY. great going.

As you are able to give a very good analysis, if this is coupled with calls,like saying at this point its a good case to go long and at these levels its a better to Square Off or Go Short.

If you can combine both, I think it will do a great help for all of us.

Also, Amit, I remember asking you abt your excel file. Is it possible for you to burn that file in a C.D and post it? I will bear all the expenses for posting it..

Thanks for understanding my concern.
Satya
 
Hi amitbe. your analysis was excellent. keep up the good work.At what point in the index would you book loss if necessary? could you speak up more on this now?
 

AMITBE

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mkshekar said:
Hi amitbe. your analysis was excellent. keep up the good work.At what point in the index would you book loss if necessary? could you speak up more on this now?
Hi mksheker...I had been calling to exit some doubtful positions especially, a few days ago. I am holding some strong ones for now and will go short at 2470 breach...to come in later.
Visibly the fund inflow is very strong above this level, as can be seen from the buying at lower levels.
Sideways consolidation is likely if 2470-2473-2475-2480-2485-2490 hold.
The tug is to the up mainly despite the pullback and choppiness.
 
srisara said:
AMIT,

we good analysis from you in relation to NIFTY. great going.

As you are able to give a very good analysis, if this is coupled with calls,like saying at this point its a good case to go long and at these levels its a better to Square Off or Go Short.

If you can combine both, I think it will do a great help for all of us.

Also, Amit, I remember asking you abt your excel file. Is it possible for you to burn that file in a C.D and post it? I will bear all the expenses for posting it..

Thanks for understanding my concern.
Satya
Amit I am awating for your reply on this...

Satya
 

AMITBE

Well-Known Member
srisara said:
Amit I am awating for your reply on this...Satya
Satya, a few points I would like to say to you...
First, a pice of software is merely a piece of software till the person using it gets into the depth of what it was designed to do...meaning it'll crunch the numbers only. The numbers remain numbers till one learns to decipher them from a really wide perspective, like the circumstances in which they were generated, a historical rear view, and from that, a foresight. I am sure there are many who have Metastock or Advanced GET etc. but how many are there who can really glean some gems of analysis from them I wonder. It's like giving a violin in the hands of an expert and a novice. You seem to belong to the South and must surely know the difference!
To get to your request for my Excel data. What there is here, is the EOD data going back to 256 odd columns, as many as one sheet of Excel can hold, plus a couple of linked sheets that go back that many more columns, say, about two years of data in all. Needless to say the exercise has been extremely tedious and time consuming, opening Bhavcopy archives from the NSE site and copying and pasting. Further, as there are scrips dropped and added everyday almost, it has been a struggle to organize the rows containing data, in correct order against the Symbols in the first column. Over and over again the data was messed up and I had to start afresh. Now I have figured a way around this.
What I am getting at here, is the long hours spent doing this have helped train my eyes to look for patterns in the lakhs of cells containing numbers, and pull out some interesting ones while missing out many more Im sure. That is the extent of my Excel file. Its a system I have organised and learnt to use. And before this I had to read many books on TA to understand how the various indicators work and what the logic is in them, like MACD, ROC, RSI Moving Averages etc, various important theories, and a lot more indeed.
I dont wish to sound superior, or as if I am unwilling to share what I have, and discouraging you for that reason, but I really dont see how all the data in the Excel file is going to be of any use to anyone who has not worked his/her way through the building up of it and understands how to build upon it, more so without a good understanding of TA.
My suggestion is, learn as much as you can the various facets of TA first, and how to interpret them on the charts. You can get hold of software and EOD data from many different sources, once you are on your way. Practice along, read and learn as you go. Thats the only way.

Secondly, I am more than a little concerned at the lack of proficiency in tech analysis, together with a limited understanding of the nature of the derivative market, plus a marked degree of impudence and nonchalance with which some people here play and make calls on derivatives. Warren Buffet, the great guru of the markets has called derivatives the Financial Weapons Of Mass Destruction. You may be quite aware of this fact I believe, recalling some posts in the past.
My advice here is, refrain from playing here unless you are very sound and experienced in TA and derivatives, both. Otherwise it is speculative and a gamble, and extremely dangerous. Don't ride your luck on this. You may get away buying and selling stocks in the cash market on tips and calls and make profits or book some losses, but derivatives are most unforgiving when the tide turns against you.
I do hope you will understand all the various issues in this post without a grudge, even if you disagree with anything I have written.
Good luck and all the best.
 
Hi Amit,
That was really good one! your articles are driving me towards learning more and more about technical analysis behind trading...
one day i will surely expertise these...

Thanks.... for being my guru in this journey...
bye and take care...
Madhura
 
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